MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 5

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 5

Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

Thursday has two “early” games with the Phillies/Cardinals at 1:45PM EST and Tigers/Indians at 6:10PM EST but the main slate kicks off at 7:05PM EST with 9 games to focus on.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

Tuesday’s GPP results continued a 2 day trend of lower than average scores as the target value dipped below 7 with a 234.8 winning score. The winning pitcher was Aaron Nola who put up 54 points, good for 6.6x value, due to his 7 inning, 7 K win against the Cardinals. The hitting on this night was driven by the Brewers stack, specifically Chris Carter (40.9 pts), Jonathan Lucroy (31.4 pts) & Jonathan Villar (15.2 pts). Overall the winning lineups bats put up 180 points, good for 22 points per batter!

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitchers

Jacob deGrom ($10,800) – For cash games, deGrom against the Padres in San Diego is an absolute must and you could argue he makes for a high upside GPP play as well. The two highest pitching performances on FanDuel so far this year have come against the Padres, as Vincent Velasquez and Clayton Kershaw both exceeded 80 points in starts against them earlier this year. The Padres strike out roughly 10 times per game which is the second most in baseball on the season and have been held to a .227 average against opposing right handers. The Mets offense is absolutely rolling right now and should have no problem giving deGrom enough run support for the win which when combined with the massive strikeout upside, makes the deGrominator my top pitching play in all formats for Thursday.

Kevin Gausman($6,500) – If you are looking to pivot away from deGrom in tournaments, I will look towards the Orioles right hander who has been very effective since he returned from injury. Gausman has put up 33 and 21 points in his first two starts striking out 5 hitters per game over 11 innings. Gausman sits a very reasonable price point and has the pedigree to put up elite strikeout numbers. The Yankees continue to scuffle out of the gate and looking at Gausman’s career numbers against the Yankees hitters, he has held two of the big lefty bats, Jacoby Ellsbury and Mark Teixeira, to a 5 for 27 mark with only 2 extra base hits. Although there is certainly risk with this game being in a good hitters park like Camden Yards, Gausman sits at a price point where he can return 6-7x value if he can capture a strong strikeout effort.

Next: Top Hitters/Stacks

Hitters/Stacks

Looking over this slate, all but two teams based off the opening lines have run projections under 4, meaning we have a well-balanced slate for offensive production. As a result, I will look to employ a variety of “mini-stacks” as opposed to full on team stacks which will provide me upside while capturing some diversification in my rosters.

Marcell Ozuna ($3,400)/Giancarlo Stanton ($4,800) – The Marlins get a home matchup against Robbie Ray, a fly ball pitcher who is only getting under 40% of his outs on the ground while giving up 1.42 HR per 9 innings. Ozuna is flying under the radar but the man is red hot, having homered in his last three games entering Wednesday.  Stanton meanwhile has had a few “pedestrian” games in a row to start May, but in FanDuel where “chasing the homerun” is a critical strategy, I love the matchup for Giancarlo and pairing him up with Ozuna against a fly ball pitcher like Ray is a recipe for a multi-home-run output.

Toronto Right Handed Bats at Home against Derek Holland (LHP) – I have employed the Blue Jays at home when facing a lefty multiple times this season as they have been one of the best offenses to target in those situations over the last 1-2 seasons. Unfortunately for me and many others, we continue to be let down……which is exactly why this may be a spot to target them when gamers pivot elsewhere and we can get them for a lower than expected ownership. Edwin Encarnacion ($3,400) & Troy Tulowitzki ($3,300) sit at very reasonable price points for the upside they possess regardless of the struggles they have gone through so far this season. This is not a cash game recommendation but rather a GPP pivot as I expect gamers will be gun shy to go back to the Blue Jay well until they have broken out of their slump which gives us a great chance to zig when others zag. The Blue Jays have one of the highest team totals on the board and I recommend mixing/matching some of the Blue Jays big right handed bats across multiple lineups with the expectation they finally deliver on one of these matchups.

Next: FanDuel Trends At First Base In April

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!