FanDuel Economics: Early MLB Picks May 11th

May 9, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners fans cheer for a strike out by starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (not pictured) during the second inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: Early MLB Picks May 11th

Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the Early MLB Picks May 11th edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!

The MLB schedule has a full slate of 15 games on Wednesday. Today, we see a split of games between early games starting after 1pm ET, and late games starting after 7pm. This article is specifically focused on the EARLY only slate of games. However, one additional note, the Padres play the Cubs in the Early and Late slate of games due to their double header. So you’ll see each team’s players as options in both sets of times. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start the day:

1:05pm ET (Early Only)
1:05pm ET (All Day)
7:05pm ET (Main)

Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.

If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:

Next: Value Pitchers (Early)

May 6, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Danny Salazar (31) throws a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Pitchers (Early)

Despite a rough outing in Minnesota on April 25th, Danny Salazar (2:10pm ET) has been dominating in the third rotation spot for the Cleveland Indians. After six starts, Danny is 3-2 with a very low 1.91 ERA, 9th in major league baseball. Over 37.2 innings, Salazar has only given up 16 walks and has 43 strikeouts. In Danny’s last outing against the Kansas City Royals, he gave up only 4 hits, no earned runs, 1 walk, and fanned 9 batters for the win. Salazar is averaging 42.3 PPG, 10th among all starting pitchers. Danny’s salary has climbed $1,100 since the start of the season to $9,100, but that still provides a great 4.6X value today, the best value option among all starting pitchers. Salazar will bring his great value to the mound today facing Doug Fister and the Houston Astros.

Marcus Stroman (3:45pm ET) isn’t having as dominating s season or has as high a value as Danny Salazar. Marcus also faces a tough win against the tough hitting San Francisco Giants and Madison Bumgarner. However, Stroman is having a solid season, is only a short step down from Salazar in terms of points and salary, and is a good value option if you’re looking for someone cheaper. It’s sometimes hard to remember the top starter for the Toronto Blue Jays is still only 25 years old, a former round one draft pick coming out of Duke University. Over seven starts, Stroman is 4-0 with a decent 3.60 ERA. Stroman has 36 K’s and only 13 walks after 50 innings. In Marcus’ last outing he gave up 2 earned runs over 8 innings, but he also landed the win and struck out 8 batters. This season, Marcus is averaging 35.1 PPG so far. Stroman has a cheaper $7,700 salary and still provides a solid 4.4X value going into early outing in San Francisco.

Next: Value Hitters - INF (Early)

May 9, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners shortstop Ketel Marte (4) hits a three-run homer against the Tampa Bay Rays during the sixth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – INF (Early)

When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 4.5X value is top 25.

Curt Casali, C, (3:40pm ET) has been the primary catcher this season for the Tampa Bay Rays. Curt hasn’t had a good start to the season, but Casali seems to be turning it on lately. Curt hit 3 of his season total of 4 home runs within the first eight days of May. In fact, over the last week Casali is averaging 16.8 PPG, 2nd among all catchers. With a very cheap salary, still, of $2,600 and a tremendous value at 6.5X, now is a good time to play Casali before either he cools off or his salary exceeds $3,000.

After a mild start to the season, Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, (3:45pm ET) appears to be getting back into his dominating form. Over the last seven games, Encarnacion has 3 home runs and 10 RBI’s. Prior to the last week, Edwin had only 3 home runs and 16 RBI’s for the season. In the past seven days, Encarnacion averaged 17.6 FanDuel PPG, 3rd among all first basemen. Edwin’s salary is still a very cheap $3,700 providing a wonderful 4.8X value heading into today’s game in San Francisco.

Again, late last week, we did a deep-dive into the second base, 2B, position and many of the value options remain the same. Ben Zobrist (1:05pm ET), Jose Altuve (2:10pm ET), and Rougned Odor (2:05pm ET) appear to be top value options today.

The third base position is very weak on value. In the early half of the day, the value options are even worse. One intriguing option is Jorge Polanco, 3B, (1:10pm ET) of the Minnesota Twins. Polanco has been in and out of the minor league early this season, but after a recent call up it appears Polanco is doing his best to make this visit permanent. After two games in Chicago against the White Sox, Jorge averaged 11 PPG with a double, 2 walks, and 2 RBI’s. Obviously Polanco is a risk, if he even starts. But he’s a cheap $2,300 salary option who could land you 10 points with a 4.8X, the best value option at the position in the early slate.

Ketel Marte, SS, (3:40pm ET) is a young, 22 year old, prospect promoted to the Majors in July of last season and is now a common starter at the shortstop position for the Seattle Mariners. Marte is a switch-hitter and has had different results versus left-handed (LHP’s) and right-handed pitchers (RHP’s). Against RHP’s, Marte is hitting a .316 batting average. Against LHP’s, Ketel is hitting .262. Combined for the year Marte is .297. Ketel is also speedy on the base path and compiled 3 stolen bases and 16 runs so far this season. Marte hasn’t demonstrated too much power, but he hit a home run on Monday and exploded with 47.1 points against Tampa Bay. Three games before, in Houston, Ketel has 28.5 points, including a triple. Over the last week, Marte averaged 15.7 PPG. With a fairly cheap salary of $3,100 today, Ketel is a delightful 5X value for us at Shortstop. I like Ketel Martel against the struggling RHP Chris Archer at home in Seattle today.

Next: Value Hitters - OF (Early)

Apr 14, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Chicago White Sox designated hitter Avisail Garcia (26) slides safely home in the seventh inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Chicago White Sox beat the Minnesota Twins 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

Value Hitters – OF (Early)

Avisail Garcia (2:05pm ET) struggled at the beginning of the season but seems to be catching fire, currently with a 10 game hitting streak. Avisail has double digit FanDuel points in each of his last six games. Over the last week, Garcia is averaging 16.1 PPG, tied for 2nd among all outfielders with Christian Yelich. Avisail’s salary has climbed to $3,400 but that still gives us a 4.7X value, top 5 among all outfielders.

Leonys Martin (3:40pm ET) has been hot and cold this May. Martin has four games with double-digit FanDuel points, two of those games were over 20 points. However, he’s also had three games with 0 points and two games with 3 points. Leonys averaged 11.4 PPG over the last week, which isn’t outstanding, but solid. Still, with a $2,700 salary and 4.2X value, he’s one of the better value options in the early state for outfielders, which like the third base position is short on savings.

Aside from Garcia and Martin, there aren’t any other value options I like at the OF position in the Early portion of the day. But to fill the third spot, you should be able to afford a $4,000 type player.

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

Next: FanDuel Trends At First Base In April

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft Kings uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.