DraftKings MLB Picks For May 17
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks For May 17
There are 14 games tonight, so that means a lot of stats to go through, and a lot of tough decisions to make. Who should you spend on? Let’s hit the stats!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Michael Pineda has never faced the Diamondbacks, so none of them will be on here. Colin Rea has never faced the Giants either. Same with Braves rookie Aaron Blair against Pittsburgh. Chase Anderson will be making his first of many starts against the Cubs. Eric Surkamp has also never faced the Rangers.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Best Bets:
Madison Bumgarner ($12,500): The Padres are only hitting .209 with two homers, 12 RBI, and an alarming 50 strikeouts against Bumgarner in 163 at bats. The Padres offense is struggling. Bumgarner hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual, but don’t be surprised if he is tonight.
Noah Syndergaard ($11,400): Syndergaard has held the Nationals to a .218 average and 15 strikeouts in 55 at bats. They have homered off of him twice, but have only driven in three. His high strikeout potential keeps him in the top tier, even with all of the other aces dealing tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Chris Archer ($9,800): Archer has fared pretty well against the Blue Jays in his career. The Jays are only hitting .170 off of him in 224 at bats and have struck out 65 times. The bad news? Archer has surrendered eight homers and the Jays have driven in 30 runs off of him. Archer will likely give up some runs, but as Jordan Zimmerman showed last night, if you strike out enough batters, you can still rack up points.
Kyle Hendricks ($8,400): Hendricks has dominated the Brewers so far in his career. They are hitting just .141 off of him in 64 at bats with just one RBI and a whopping 16 strikeouts! He could put up ace numbers at a middle tier price against the Brewers.
Dark Horses:
Carlos Rodon ($8,800): Rodon may be the lightest dark horse of the season so far, but he qualifies on a day full of aces. He certainly does qualify though. The Astros are only 7-30(.233) against him with one extra base hit, no runs, an seven strikeouts. He is certainly worth a look against a team that strikes out as much as Houston does.
Chad Bettis ($7,000): Yes, he is facing the Cardinals, but it is not in the thin air of Coors Field. The Redbirds are only 6-25(.240) with two RBI and seven strikeouts against Bettis. Add to that Garcia’s less than stellar history against the Rockies, and Bettis could be a nice sneaky pick tonight.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Am I out of my mind? Why am I advocating a stack against Max Scherzer? Stats. Well, and he did give up two runs despite striking out 20, and strikeouts don’t count against us in DFS anymore. Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,400) is 12-45(.267) with three walks, four doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Scherzer. Yoenis Cespedes ($3,900) is 3-9 with two walks, a double and a solo homer. Curtis Granderson ($3,400) is 7-23(.304) with five walks, three doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Neil Walker ($2,800) is 3-9 with a walk, two homers, and three RBI off of Scherzer. The stats support this.
Zack Greinke has not been dominant this year, and the Yankees have hit .293 off of him in 99 at bats. Brian McCann ($3,600) is 2-6 with a solo homer off of him. Mark Teixeira ($3,400) is 5-13(.385) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI off Greinke. Even Starlin Castro ($3,200) has hit him well. The former Cub is 5-19(.263) with three walks, two doubles, and two RBI against Greinke.
Stacking Tigers against Phil Hughes should go without saying, but which ones? How about Victor Martinez ($3,700) who is 12-37(.324) with two doubles, a homer, and five RBI against Hughes. Nick Castellanos ($3,700) is 5-14(.357) with a walk, two doubles, and four RBI. J.D. Martinez ($4,000) is 3-12 with a double, a homer, and two driven in. Of course Miguel Cabrera ($4,400) is leading the way. He is 18-41(.439) with a walk, five doubles, six homers, and 14 RBI against Hughes.
The Orioles hit lefties well, and Wade Miley is no exception. Adam Jones ($4,400) is 2-6 with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Manny Machado ($4,800) is 3-7 with a walk and a solo homer. Chris Davis ($4,200) is 2-7 with a pair of RBI. Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters each have a solo homer off of Miley as well.
You know an Archer stack is coming since he has given up eight long balls to the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista ($4,000) has two of them with seven RBI, but he is just 6-37(.162). Edwin Encarnacion ($4,200) is in the same boat. He is just 6-42(.143), but he has smacked three homers and driven in eight. If you want a somewhat safer bet, there is always Justin Smoak ($3,000). He is 6-21(.286) with a homer and three driven in.
Mark Reynolds ($2,900) is 2-5 with a homer and two RBI off of Jaime Garcia. Charlie Blackmon ($3,400) has the same stats. Carlos Gonzalez could be a huge bargain at $3,100. He is 6-12 with two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Garcia.
You may have a lot to gain by stacking Royals against Rick Porcello. Alex Gordon ($3,000) is 11-41(.268) with two walks, two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI off of Porcello. Eric Hosmer ($3,300) is 9-26(.346) with three walks, a double, two homers, and three RBI in his career off of Porcello. Lorenzo Cain ($4,000) is 5-13(.385) with a RBI against Porcello.
Next: More Notes For 5-16
Check out this line: 6-12, four walks, a double, a triple, four homers, and nine RBI. Those are Freddie Freeman‘s career numbers against Juan Nicasio. And he can be yours for the low price of $4,300.
Robinson Cano ($5,300) loves Ubaldo Jimenez. He is 6-11(.545) with a walk, two doubles, two homers, and three RBI against him. Nelson Cruz does NOT like Ubaldo. He is 0-12 with nine strikeouts.
Maikel Franco ($3,800) is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI off of Wei-Yin Chen so far in his career.
Kole Calhoun is only $2,400 tonight because he is facing Clayton Kershaw. Well, he is 2-4 against Kershaw with a solo home run. He could be a nice sleeper pick. Albert Pujols ($2,700) is 10-26(.385) with six walks, four doubles, and two RBI off of Kershaw if you are looking to save some more money to afford an ace tonight.
In a world in which most of it has struggled against Madison Bumgarner, two unlikely players from San Diego have hit him well in Jon Jay ($2,500) and Derek Norris ($2,700). Jay is 6-14(.429) with two walks, three doubles, and three RBI against MadBum. Norris is 9-26(.346) with a walk, two doubles, a home run, and six RBI against him.
Anthony Rendon could be a steal at $3,200. He is 3-7 with a double and a solo home run so far in his career against Snyndergaard.
Evan Longoria ($3,400) has actually hit Marcus Stroman very well. Longoria is 6-12 with a walk, a double, two homers, and four RBI off of the young Blue Jays star.
Chris Coghlan could be a bargain at $2,000. He is 9-26(.346) with four walks, two doubles, a triple, two homers, and four RBI against Cole Hamels. Billy Butler ($2,700) could be worth using as well. He is only 1-5 against Hamels, but he has a home runs and five RBI.
Jose Abreu ($4,000) is 2-6 with a homer and two RBI off Dallas Keuchel. You may also consider Avisail Garcia ($3,600). Garcia is 3-9 with a homer and three RBI off him.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play an FanDuel without them!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!