MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 20
MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Baseball Picks May 20
Welcome to the Friday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Friday is a “one slate only” day with the main slate kicking off at 7:05PM EST with a total of 15 games scattered across Major League Baseball.
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I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.8 | $ 8,482 | 24% | 76% | $ 3,315 | 7.17 |
| 5 Day | 271.4 | $ 8,525 | 24% | 76% | $ 3,309 | 7.76 |
| Prev Day | 273 | $ 10,900 | 31% | 69% | $ 3,013 | 7.80 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitcher – Top Picks
Gerrit Cole ($10,200) at home versus Colorado – With Jake Arrieta on the mound Friday, many owners will look to lock up the top priced arm against San Francisco, however dropping down to Cole may allow us to capture the same elite upside at a significantly reduced price. Cole started out with a rocky first 5 starts but has really turned it on over his last two starts, averaging 51 points per game. Digging into the statistics, we can see that Cole is putting up numbers over his last two starts more in line with his results from last year which give us an indication he is rounding back into form.
One statistic I like to look through when selecting my pitchers is SIERA, which is essentially an ERA estimator that adjusts for how a pitcher should be performing based off his strikeouts/walks/balls in play etc. A more detailed write-up of SIERA can be found on FanGraphs and is a useful tool for those looking to dig deeper into statistics. Over the last two starts Cole, has pitched to a SIERA of 3.07 compared to the 4.08 mark over his previous 5 starts and more in line with career marks of 3.30. If a pitchers SIERA is is in he 2.9-3.3 range, that is exceptional, and the stats are showing Cole is back to performing at a top level.
Additionally, we are seeing Cole’s strikeout rate increase to 26.4% over his last two starts as compared to the 22.6% in his previous 5 and again more in line with his 24.3% mark from last year. One of the best indicators of a turn around is we are seeing hitters making much less solid contact against him in his last two starts, 24% compared to 35% in his previous 5.
Ultimately Cole is my top choice on the night as I expect his turnaround to continue and even with Arrieta on the mound, it would not surprise me to see Cole be the top scoring pitcher on the evenings slate.
Aaron Nola ($9,000) at home versus Atlanta – Any time the Braves are on the schedule, it makes sense to look into the opposing starting pitcher as they will have one of the most favorable matchups on the board. The Phillies have been one of baseball’s biggest early season surprises riding a rotation of young power arms, with Nola right at the top of that list. Over the last 15 days, Nola has averaged 40.5 points per start and with the way the Phils are playing right now should be well positioned for a win on Friday night. Nola has elite strikeout upside, striking out at least 7 batters in 6 of his 8 starts, which makes him a great high upside play. Nola has also faced the Braves 3 times previously(all last year), going 2-0 with 14K’s in 19 IP and a 1.42 ERA. Nola makes for a great option at the mid-level price points for tonight’s slate in all formats.
Next: Top Bargain Starting Pitchers
Top Value Starting Pitchers
If you want to drop down even further, Friday night has a variety of tremendous value picks that will allow you tremendous roster flexibility when building your lineups.
Matt Andriese ($7,400) at Detroit – The Tampa Bay right hander has been off the charts good in his first two starts this year, displaying exceptional control and pounding the strike zone against opposing hitters. Andriese has averaged 46.5 points per game which is equal to the output Jake Arrieta has put up during the last 2 weeks. Putting up this kind of value at any price point is exceptional, and because Andriese lacks the big time name value, we can continue to target him at lower than expected ownership levels. Andriese has been brutal on opposing left-handed hitters, giving up only 1 hit in 22 at bats and has been formidable against opposing right-handed bats (5 for 27 for a .185 average). What has been most impressive is that Andriese continues to pound the strike zone, limiting base runners via walk, and this was evident in his last start where he threw 78 of 106 pitchers for strikes and starts 21 of 29 batters with a first pitch strike. I love Andriese as tournament play on Friday and at this price point, it gives you such great flexibility in building a star-studded offensive team.
Tyler Duffey ($6,400) at home versus Toronto – At a slightly reduced price point, Duffey is an intriguing pivot from Andriese and with a perceived difficult matchup against Toronto should be widely overlooked. Over the last 2 weeks, Duffey has averaged 45 points per start, good for 7x value at this reduced price point. Duffey has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts, giving up only 3 earned runs and striking out 15 over those 14 innings.
Next: Top Hitters/Stacks
Top Hitters/Stacks
There are 3 teams on Friday night’s slate projected to score 5+ runs(Astros, Indians and Mariners) and with so few aces on the mound, this makes for an ideal situation to employ a variety of mini-stacks across your lineups.
Houston Astros at home versus Colby Lewis – Lewis is among the league leaders in home runs allowed, as he has given up 10 home runs over 52 innings. Playing in Houston gives the Astros a big time park boost, and many of the key left-handed bats in the Astros lineup have been producing solid value over the last two weeks. Jason Castro ($3,100) has averaged 13.3 points over the last 15 days (4.3x value) and Marwin Gonzalez ($2,900) has averaged 11.7 (4x value) putting both hitters in play at very reasonable prices. Colby Rasmus ($3,500) may be my favorite play on the Astros as the cleanup hitter has put up 10.2 points over the last 15 days and has multiple home run upside in this matchup.
Cleveland Indians at Fenway versus Clay Buchholz – I focused on the Indians in my Thursday column but I will look towards them again as they get a favorable matchup in Boston on Friday night. Buchholz has been getting hit hard by opposing left handers to the tune of a .319 average and has given up 17 ER in 21 IP versus LH bats. Rajai Davis ($3,400) has been on a 3 day tear, putting up just under 40 points per game and hitting in the leadoff spot makes for a great play in this matchup. Carlos Santana ($2,900) will be back in an AL park and should resume playing everyday and makes for a great value at 1B, especially considering he has hit 2 home runs as I write this article on Thursday evening!
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!