FanDuel MLB Picks: Picks and Pivots for June 2
FanDuel MLB Picks: Picks and Pivots for June 2
Welcome to the Thursday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB Picks. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Thursday’s MLB action starts off at 12:10PM EST and FanDuel offers a 3 game afternoon only slate as well as a “main” slate with an additional 8 games starting at 7:05PM EST.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.3 | $ 8,577 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,303 | 7.15 |
| 5 Day | 230.2 | $ 8,217 | 23% | 77% | $ 3,348 | 6.58 |
| Prev Day | 288.3 | $ 6,600 | 19% | 81% | $ 3,550 | 8.24 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Who are the top pitching options on Thursday?
Each day when I look over the upcoming slate to make my FanDuel MLB Picks, I usually go game by game jotting down notes and ultimately come to the end with a relatively clear decision on my top pitching targets. After reviewing Thursday’s slate it seems painfully obvious that we are faced with a Madison Bumgarner and everyone else kind of day!
Madison Bumgarner ($12,000) at Atlanta (12:10PM EST): I certainly do not expect people will look at this pick with any sort of wonder, as targeting the best and most expensive pitcher on the slate is not exactly going out on a limb. However, there are some key metrics and narratives that make Bumgarner the clear number #1 pitching option.
First off, Bumgarner is a massive (-220) favorite going up against the Braves in Atlanta and should be able to dominate one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. Secondly, comparing the performance of MadBum to the other pitchers on the slate, not only is he the highest scoring pitcher per game over the last month but he is also delivering the highest point/$ value at 4.3.
The most difficult part in recommending the Giants left-hander is not his performance or his match-up, its the time his game starts and the slate setup on FanDuel. Keep in mind that this game starts at noon EST so the only way to utilize him would be in an early only slate(with only three games though this will be the chalkiest of chalk picks) or in an all-day slate which is always risky as the majority of the late games will not have confirmed lineups at the time lineups lock!
Matt Moore ($7,200) at Minnesota (8:10PM EST): The main slate on Thursday is littered with questionable options with no overly favored hurlers leaving us wondering where to turn to. Moore is slightly favored on the road in Minnesota and gets a match-up with a team that has struggled all season against LHP which makes him my top bargain option.
The Twins have hit only .220 against LHP this season with a paltry 6 home runs. Keep in mind that the most dangerous hitter in the lineup, Miguel Sano, who has 2 of those 6 home runs against LHP, was placed on the DL this week which leaves this lineup ripe to be exploited!
Pitching Summary: Clearly, Bumgarner is the best pitcher on the slate, but for my money I am going to drop down to Moore for one very important reason – the Rockies in Coors against Alfredo Simon. We will touch on this on the next slide, but this is an absolute must play for me and I am willing to drop down at SP to make the lineup construction work.
Look back at Tuesday’s slate as a prime example of the impact a monster game in Colorado can have. The winning entries in tournaments were littered with Rockies bats as they absolutely lit up the Reds and if you didn’t have them in your lineups, you were left out of the money.
Take a closer look at the winning pitchers on those lineups – Mike Leake for example, who put up 36 points, pitching 6 innings for the win while giving up 2 runs and striking out 4. Quite a pedestrian line, but this was all it took to ensure you had the exposure to the Rockies bats.
So take a look at Thursday’s slate and tell me you can’t see a similar outcome – a Rockies offensive explosion and you only need 36 points from Matt Moore. Doesn’t feel that far fetched does it? I am happy to roll the dice and let others pay up for MadBum and I’ll go all in on Coors.
Sometimes when looking through a slate, a match-up is so perfect that it drives 100% of your roster construction across all formats. When putting together my FanDuel MLB picks for Thursday, the Rockies against Alfredo Simon jumps out as an absolute must play and will be an integral part of successful DFS play this evening.
Rockies against RHP Alfredo Simon – So far this season, Simon has pitched 40 innings, given up 43 ER, 9 home runs and pitched to a 9.60 ERA. Simon is giving up an absurd .453 wOBA to left handed hitters and a crazy .648 slugging percentage which would be about the same as Bryce Harper‘s slugging percentage in 2015 when he lead the league.
The Rockies key bats have seen their prices increase since this series started but the top bats, Charlie Blackmon ($4,800), Nolan Arenado ($4,600) and Carlos Gonzalez ($4,300) all have the ability to put up monster games Thursday and by spending down at SP, we can easily afford this stack. Gerardo Parra ($3,600) will likely be very highly owned at this price point, but makes for a very easy addition to a full on Coors stack against Simon.
Adam Lind ($2,800) versus RHP Colin Rea: If we want to stack the Rockies we are going to need some cheap bats and Lind is my top budget option across the Thursday slate.
Over the last 7 days, no hitter has put up a better point/$ value than Lind as he has put up 8.9x value while averaging 24.5 points.
With a match-up against a RHP, Lind makes for a great play with the platoon advantage and is easy to fit in with the Coors field bats.
Next: Top FanDuel MLB Lineup
Below you will find my initial lineup for Thursday’s MLB FanDuel slate including notes/comments on my roster construction.
Pitcher: Matt Moore ($7,200)
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Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!