MLB DFS Tips: How to Choose Your Own Ace of the Staff!
Every single night you make a MLB lineup on Fanduel, the most important thing is that you get a good/great outing from your starting pitcher. Unlike the other major sports on DFS sites, baseball is the only one where one position holds exponentially higher value than the others. This of course is due to the fact that in theory a pitcher will pitch a certain number of innings, (receiving 3 points per inning on Fanduel and 2.25 on Draftkings respectively,) while a hitter has a much lower chance of accumulating points.
So now that you know just how important a pitcher is for your lineups, how do you select the right one on a given slate of games for the night? To answer this I look at a variety of factors and statistics for each scheduled starter and let them do the work. While everyone knows the basic idea, (Low E.R.A, with a good record,) there are better ways to choose your ace on any given night.
On Fanduel, pitchers accumulate points three different ways, three points per strikeout, three for each inning pitched, and twelve for being the winning pitcher of record. Since they can only lose points one way, (-3 for each earned run allowed,) the main goal is always to find someone who can strike a lot of batters out while getting run support.
Next: Why Run Support Matters
I find that run support is something that a lot of people don’t pay enough attention to when choosing a pitcher and this is a huge mistake. The twelve points that a pitcher receivers for a win can easily turn a losing night into a winning night and vice versa. For example, lets say that:
Pitcher “A” goes 7 innings, strikes out 10 batters, and allows 2 runs – Gets a No-Decision=45 Points
Pitcher “B” goes 6 innings, strikes out 7, and also allows 2 runs- Earns the Win = 45 points
But if both pitchers earn the same amount of points why would this matter? The answer of course is that pitcher “A” most likely cost more than pitcher “B” did because of his ability to get strikeouts. With the salary you saved using pitcher “B” you can use it elsewhere in upgrading your lineups. Looking for pitchers on very good offensive teams, (Cubs,Red Sox, Pirates, etc.) can go a long way to ensuring that when your pitcher of choice throws a gem, there’s a great chance his hitters will make sure he gets the W.
Next: Finding the Strikeouts
The next few pieces of data go hand in hand with one another, the pitchers K/9 rate and the opposing teams hitters K%. Anyone who watched the World Series last year knows just how critical these both play in determining how outs are made during a baseball game. The brilliant Met rotation dominated the Dodgers and Cubs hitters to set up a date with the Royals in the fall classic.
Unfortunately for Met fans they ended up losing in five games by managing to blow leads at very inopportune times. What ended up killing the Mets however, was that the Royals were the best team in all of baseball at not striking out, (about 6 times a game.) When comparing that to a team like the Cubs, (9.37 times per game,) it is easy to see why the Mets, with their star studded pitching staff, had such an easier time dealing with Chicago.
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When choosing a pitcher for dfs, you want to find one that is going up against a team like Chicago but obviously with less talent than this current Cubs team. Teams like the Astros (9.89 K’s a game), Brewers (9.54), Rays (9.39), and Mets (9.09) can really give your Fanduel lineup a boost because of their free swinging nature. When you can find a pitcher with a high K/9 rate going up against a team like that, you can sit back and watch your score rocket upwards.
A great example of this happened when Jose Fernandez of the Marlins squared off against the Mets this past Sunday. Fernandez is widely recognized as one of the best pitchers in the game and has a ridiculous K/9 rate of 13.26, when you couple this with the information about the free swinging Mets hitters that I discussed above, it is easy to predict the Fernandez would have a monster night. His final line for the game was as follows,
7 Innings Pitched, 4 Hits, 0 Runs, 14 Strikeouts, 1 Win = 75 Fanduel Points
An absolutely monster night that was easily predictable by looking at the strikeout rates of the pitcher and the hitters.
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
By looking at K rates and determining what kind of run support a pitcher is likely to receive, you are giving yourself a massive advantage over the casual Fanduel player which should help your bankroll continue to grow.