Atlanta Hawks offseason review

As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Atlanta Hawks.

After getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Cleveland Cavaliers, for the second year in a row, the Hawks have been active in changing their roster. What does the new group look like?

Inputs: Taurean Prince (SF, NBA Draft pick No. 12); DeAndre Bembry (SG, NBA Draft pick No. 21); Dwight Howard (C, signed for three years, $70.5 million); Malcolm Delaney (PG, signed for two years, $2.5 million); Jarrett Jack (PG, signed for one year, veteran’s minimum);  Matt Costello (C, signed for two years, non-guaranteed)

Outputs: Jeff Teague (PG, traded to the Indiana Pacers); Al Horford (C, signed with the Boston Celtics); Kirk Hinrich (PG, unsigned); Lamar Patterson (SF, signed with the Sacramento Kings)

Retained: Kent Bazemore (SG, signed for four years, $70 million); Kris Humphries (PF, signed for one year, $4 million)

Pending: None

While the middle of the roster will look fairly similar, things are going to be dramatically different on the ends. Jeff Teague’s departure creates an opportunity for Dennis Schroder to step forward and prove he can be a quality starting point guard in the NBA. Replacing Al Horford with Dwight Howard should create a dramatically different offensive style but the Hawks are hoping he can help maintain the integrity of one of the league’s best defenses.

The Hawks two draft picks are both intriguing, although Prince may have been a bit of a reach at No. 12. Prince is billed as a 3-and-D wing with the size and strength to matchup with some small ball fours. However, he is far from an elite shooter and there are some questions about how his defense will translate from the zone he played at Baylor. Bembry is a little more dynamic and has potential as a shot creator but he’s a fairly unreliable outside shooter at this point.

The Hawks might be a little better this season, they might be a little worse. A lot is riding on fit on how Schroder plays. This feels very much like a roster in transition as opposed to a finished product.

3 Big Questions

To really dig deep on Atlanta’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Hawks expertise. Kris Willis (@Kris_Willis) is one of the site managers for SBNation’s Peachtree Hoops. Brad Rowland (@BTRowland) is a contributor to FanSided, an editor for Peachtree Hoops, and host of the Locked on Hawks podcast. Jeff Siegel (@jgsiegel) is a regular contributor to FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm.

Kris, Brad, and Jeff were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Atlanta’s offseason.

Who do the Hawks miss more this season, Jeff Teague or Al Horford?

Kris Willis: The answer is Al Horford. While Al’s core stats may have declined the last couple of seasons, his value to the Hawks remains understated. Defensively he was the backbone of Atlanta’s defense that ranked second in the league in defensive rating during the regular season last year. The versatility that he and Paul Millsap provided against opponent’s pick-and-rolls will be missed. He is an underrated a rim protector and just an all-around versatile defender. I think Atlanta will miss Teague to an extent but there is more upside with Dennis Schroder. There may be some growing pains there but overall Horford’s departure will have more of an impact.

Brad Rowland: Al Horford. While both players could be considerable losses for Atlanta, Horford’s exit could have more far-reaching impact. Horford is arguably the best player that the franchise has employed since Dominique Wilkins, and he was an X-factor in what Mike Budenholzer tried to do on both ends of the court. His offensive versatility, particularly in screen-setting, mobility and jump-shooting, was vital for Atlanta, and while his rebounding came under fire from the fan base, Horford remains a top-notch defender that is incredibly mobile and effective from the center spot. In my mind, there is a downgrade from Jeff Teague to what Dennis Schröder will likely bring in 2016-2017, but with the addition of Malcolm Delaney (and Jarrett Jack), the Hawks have a nice rotation at the position and, if anything, Schröder possesses the upside that could make Atlanta fans forget about Teague in a hurry.

Jeff Siegel: Horford has been the heartbeat of the Hawks for the past nine years and was such an important piece for them on both ends. His shooting allowed the five-out, movement-based offensive system that Budenholzer created for his team; his quickness and intelligence informed everything the Hawks did on the defensive end. Howard brings an entirely different set of skills to the table and will require Budenholzer to adapt his system to fit his new personnel. Schröder might not be better than Teague next season, but Teague was on the way out the door in free agency next summer and the Hawks will be able to bring Schröder back and keep him in Atlanta for the next six seasons, if they so choose. Schröder’s ceiling is higher than Teague’s, and at the very least he’ll be a lightning rod who can create for himself and others.

This season, Dwight Howard will be                               .

Kris Willis: Intriguing? Dwight Howard was not my first choice for the Hawks when free agency began this summer. With that said Atlanta needed to make some changes to a roster that had begun to feel a bit stale. While I’m not convinced that adding Howard makes them a better team, he will undoubtedly help on the rebounding front. The question is at what cost? The Hawks were among the best defensive teams in the league last year so real defensive improvement might be unrealistic. Offensively, Howard is not the same player he was during his Orlando days and there has always been questions regarding his willingness to play in the pick-and-roll which has been the basis of Budenholzer’s offensive system in Atlanta. I call Howard’s addition intriguing because I wonder how much improved rebounding will help and what effect he will have on the Hawks on the offensive and defensive ends of the court.

Brad Rowland: Interesting. In my mind, fans that are expecting the “old Dwight Howard” will be disappointed, but if the 30-year-old center is able to remain healthy, he is a highly productive player. At a minimum, Howard will be an upgrade on Horford in the rebounding department, and for a team that needs that uptick in the worst way, he will be a great addition. The jury remains out on Howard’s offense, though, as he is still an effective pick-and-roll player, but thinks of himself as a dominant post scorer in a way that just isn’t displayed in real life. If Howard buys in to Atlanta’s principles offensively and can stay healthy and active defensively, he can be a strongly above-average center. If the health falls apart and/or he struggles to fit in culturally, it could be a long three years for the Hawks.

Jeff Siegel: Difficult. There’s so much that can go wrong with him: his health, his effort level, his willingness to accept a subdued role. There’s a reason that no coach has been able to corral him since Stan Van Gundy in his Orlando years. Budenholzer is one of the sharpest basketball minds in the league, but he hasn’t had to deal with a problem like Howard on or off the floor since he arrived in Atlanta. Budenholzer’s ability as a communicator and leader will be tested this year like it never has been; he’s got a fiery point guard who’s prone to mistakes but never stops being aggressive and a new center who doesn’t fit the system and loves to play with his back to the basket despite not being taller than some small forwards. If things don’t go well, we’re going to be hearing from Howard about his lack of touches. I hope I’m wrong, but Howard’s track record with this isn’t great.

Between Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, and Tim Hardaway Jr., is their room for Taurean Prince this season?

Kris Willis: As the roster stands currently I think it is going to be tough especially early on. However, it is a long season and injuries happen so I think at some point Prince will likely get a shot. At this point, I think Korver and Bazemore are the clear starters with Sefolosha the first wing sub off the bench. Tim Hardaway Jr should have a leg up going to training camp but he can’t afford to struggle early with guys like Prince and DeAndre Bembry looking for playing time. Overall, I am much happier with the wing depth that the Hawks have heading into this season and Prince is a huge reason for that.

Brad Rowland: The jury is out. I think it is a virtual lock that Bazemore, Korver and Sefolosha begin the season strongly ahead of Prince on the depth chart, and Hardaway Jr. is probably a safe bet in this regard. Atlanta famously has been reluctant to deploy players with limited experience in their system (see Hardaway Jr. last season), but because Prince has size and athletic upside, it is conceivable that he could surpass someone like Hardaway Jr. by the middle of the season. The Hawks have been searching for a big, physical wing that can act as a deterrent to top-flight NBA players at the forward position, and Prince has the profile to do that in the future. As for this year, rookies are notoriously overrated, and even if Prince slips past one guy on the depth chart, he also must contend with fellow rookie DeAndre Bembry for minutes.

Jeff Siegel: God, I hope so. Prince brings size on the wing, something that the Hawks don’t have anywhere else, save for the weird Paul-Millsap-at-the-3 lineups that they’ve rolled out from time to time. The Hawks were hesitant to give Hardaway Jr. minutes at the beginning of last season, but he came around in the second half of the year and seems to have solidified his place as the fourth wing. For all his athleticism, Prince wasn’t fantastic defensively in Summer League and comes from the weird Baylor zone scheme, so it may take time for him to learn the ins and outs of NBA defense. Budenholzer isn’t one to throw an unproven player into game situations and Prince will have to prove in practice that he deserves to play ahead of Hardaway Jr.

Muck and mire

Since Mike Budenholzer arrived in Atlanta, their offensive system has been predicated on ball movement. In each of the past two seasons they have ranked fifth in passes made per game, and ranked in the top three in potential assists per game, according to the NBA’s player tracking statistics. Al Horford’s skill and willingness as a passer was one of the major reasons that system worked so well. Among centers who played at least 30 minutes a game last season, Horford ranked fifth in passes made per game and third in potential assists.

Dwight Howard brought a different set of offensive skills to bear:

Horford averaged more than twice as many potential assists per game as Howard last season. Some of that is situational, the result of the Hawks system, but it’s also a reflection of how different each player is. Howard won’t necessarily be a drag on the Hawks ball movement but they certainly won’t be able to use him in the same ways or locations as they used Horford.

The only constant is change, I suppose.

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