Premier League season preview: Manchester City

Pep Guardiola’s arrival has raised expectations at Manchester City higher than ever, but can he win a Premier League title in his first season?

INS: Leroy Sane (£37 million, Schalke), Gabriel Jesus (£27 million, Palmeiras), Ilkay Gundogan (£21 million, Borussia Dortmund), Nolito (£13.8 million, Celta Vigo), Oleksandr Zinchenko (£1.7 million, FK Ufa), Aaron Mooy (free, Melbourne City), Marlos Moreno (£4.8 million, Atletico Nacional)

OUTS: Seko Fofana (£3.8 million, Udinese), Florian Lejeune (£1.2 million, Eibar), Aaron Mooy (loan, Huddersfield), Jack Byrne (loan, Blackburn), Luke Brattan (loan, Melbourne City), Anthony Caceres (loan, Melbourne City), Martin Demichelis (released), Richard Wright (retired), Marlos Moreno (loan, Deportivo La Coruna)

THE STORY: Eight years after Sheikh Mansour took over Manchester City, the question his ownership put to the soccer world almost has its answer. Billions of dollars in transfer fees and infrastructure, three managers, five trophies and dozens of players later, we’re about to find out if City, led by new manager Pep Guardiola, can complete the Herculean climb from lovable loser to global footballing superpower.

City find themselves at a crossroads. After 35 years without a domestic trophy of any kind, and 44 without a top flight title, they’ve now won two of the last five league titles, an FA Cup, a League Cup and a Community Shield. They’ve earned more points than any Premier League team the past five seasons. Their goal differential in that span (+236) dwarfs that of their nearest rival (Man United, +159). They’ve been the most dominant team in the world’s most competitive league. And what did that earn Roberto Mancini and Manuel Pellegrini, the two managers responsible for all that success? Pink slips.

But domestic dominance was never the endgame. Mansour and company (Kompany?) were never aiming simply to overtake the Arsenals and Chelseas of the world. They wanted City to join the holy trinity of modern soccer — Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. To do that, the club will have to do more than reach a Champions League semifinal, as they did last season. They will not only have to go head-to-head with the big boys on the pitch, but in the transfer market as well, part of the reason the club endured the awkward and protracted sacking of the gentlemanly Pellegrini last season. Guardiola has been brought in to raise the bar in training, to revolutionize the X’s and O’s and to attract the very best players in the world.

The old guard, the players who joined the club when the team had only promises and an open checkbook, are either past their primes or nearing the end of their tenures. Joe Hart is 29, still relatively young for a keeper, but faces questions about whether he is good enough with his feet to fit into Guardiola’s system. Vincent Kompany is 30, and in the time it takes you to read this sentence he will probably have suffered another thigh injury. David Silva is also 30, and has of late struggled with nagging injuries that have sometimes rendered him less Merlin and more David Blaine. Yaya Toure, a roster casualty under Guardiola at Barcelona five years ago, is 33 and can no longer dominate the way he used to.

The decline of those core players may have been less of an issue had recent big-money signings not failed to impress. Eliaquim Mangala, Nicholas Otamendi, Wilfried Bony, Jesus Návas and Raheem Sterling are the most notable disappointments, but there have been plenty of others (Stevan Jovetic, anyone?). One of Guardiola’s biggest tasks will be to coax improved performances out of these players.

City also need the old guard to find their old form, for more recent signings like Kevin De Bruyne and Fernandinho to continue to impress and for the new signings to settle quickly if they are going to have success in a season in which they hope to compete for four trophies. The road ahead will be tough, but having become profitable enough now to no longer fear UEFA’s faux-egalitarian, Orwellian-sounding Financial Fair Play regulations, it is time for City to show they belong among the game’s genuine elite.

KEY PLAYER: A return to form from Kompany would help City in their greatest area of weakness, the defense. Sergio Aguero is the Premier League’s most dangerous striker and City’s biggest star. But this year, City’s key player is a group of players — the young ones. City have stockpiled an arsenal of gifted youngsters. Leroy Sane is just 20 years old. Gabriel Jesus is 19, as are the impressive strikers Kelechi Iheanacho and Oleksandr Zinchenko, who likely needs another year of seasoning before he can consistently contribute. Well-regarded defender Jason Denayer is only 21. So is Bersant Celina. Manu Garcia is 18. Hell, Sterling is still only 21. If a handful of these prospects burst onto the scene this year, City would be well-positioned going forward – not only personnel-wise, but financially, too. The presence of Guardiola, plus evidence of a bright foundation for the future, could redouble their appeal as a destination for future stars.

MANAGER: It’s possible no manager for the rest of human history will hit the same heights Guardiola did in his time managing Barcelona, a curse every artist (and Guardiola is revered as much for his artistry as his technical know-how) fears: peaking too early and spending the rest of their career appearing to fall short. His Bayern teams won the Bundesliga all three years he was there, but failed to win a European trophy. One wonders how that kind of record would be interpreted at Manchester City. Pellegrini’s reign opened with champagne football and ended in the same place Guardiola’s Bayern reign ended – the Champions League semifinals. If three years from now the Citizens have added three Premier League trophies to their case but no European title, how will Pep be regarded?

BEST CASE: City win the Premier League and the Champions League, and complete their ascent to sporting godhood.

WORST CASE: City struggle in the Champions League qualifiers, then fail to advance beyond the round of 16, then watch Jose Mourinho and Manchester United take advantage of a lighter fixture list to win the league.

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