Chargers season preview 2016: Predictions and analysis

After a year of preparing to say goodbye to the city they’d called home since 1961, the San Diego Chargers decided to stay.

Whether or not the Chargers remain in San Diego for the long haul remains to be seen, but the team is back once more in the outdated Qualcomm Stadium. Unfortunately, many of the problems that plagued the team in its 4-12 campaign from a year ago also remain.

Despite drafting Melvin Gordon with the 15th-overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, San Diego was not able to run the ball effectively despite. Gordon, a superstar at the University of Wisconsin throughout his four years, failed to score a touchdown in his rookie voyage and averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. If Gordon is not better — much better —the Chargers will once again be in for a long season.

Another problem has been pass protection for Philip Rivers. At 34 years old and immobile as ever, Rivers was sacked 40 times last season. While the left side has been respectable, with King Dunlap at tackle and Orlando Franklin at guard, the rest of the group is underwhelming at best. General manager Tom Telesco did draft USC center Max Tuerk in the third round, hoping to upgrade from Chris Watt. To this point, right guard D.J. Fluker has been inconsistent as well, with tackle Joe Barksdale nothing more than filler.

Without significant improvements from both the line and backs, Rivers will continue to be a man on an island. The potential Hall of Famer threw for over 4,700 yards last season but due to injuries and a lack of support, the Chargers could only win four games.

On the positive side, San Diego is almost guaranteed to be healthier this season. One of the main cogs that went out injured was receiver Keenan Allen, who is poised to become a breakout star in his fourth go-round. Before being lost to injured reserve last season, Allen registered 67 catches for 725 yards and four touchdowns despite playing in only eight games.

Allen will be joined this season by free-agent acquisition Travis Benjamin, who came over from the Cleveland Browns. Despite playing with Johnny Manziel and Josh McCown, the speedy Benjamin amassed 966 receiving yards and five scores. With Benjamin and Allen, San Diego has the potential for a dynamic passing attack, if only Rivers is afforded some time in the pocket.

The defense has been upgraded by Telesco, with the signing of veteran Brandon Mebane being a terrific low-key move. He should pair nicely with star end Corey Liuget. if Joey Bosa ever comes into team headquarters, the Chargers stand to be much better up front. The maturation of second-year inside linebacker Denzel Perryman should also help against the run, while Melvin Ingram looks to build on his 10-sack season of a year ago.

San Diego is unquestionably better than its 4-12 mark from 2015, but how much so? The Chargers are playing in a brutal division and on paper, look to be the weak sister. If they want to shake that label, it’s high time Rivers gets help across the board, starting with the group in front of him. Without improvement from them, Gordon and the run defense, San Diego could be picking in the top 10 again come April.

Schedule

Week 1 – at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 2 – Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 3 – at Indianapolis Colts
Week 4 – New Orleans Saints
Week 5 – at Oakland Raiders
Week 6 – Denver Broncos (Thurs.)
Week 7 – at Atlanta Falcons
Week 8 – at Denver Broncos
Week 9 – Tennessee Titans
Week 10 – Miami Dolphins
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – at Houston Texans
Week 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 14 – at Carolina Panthers
Week 15 – Oakland Raiders
Week 16 – at Cleveland Browns
Week 17 – Kansas City Chiefs

The middle of the schedule provides an opportunity for the Chargers to get on a nice run, with San Diego playing the Titans and Dolphins at home before getting a week off. After the bye, Rivers and Co. then take on Houston in a tough game before hosting the Buccaneers.

There isn’t a portion of this schedule that spells complete doom for San Diego, although the beginning will be tough. Going to Arrowhead Stadium in Week 1 is a challenge, and could be exacerbated by further struggles against Blake Bortles, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees.

Draft class

Round 1 (3) – Joey Bosa, DE, Ohio State
Round 2 (35) – Hunter Henry, TE, Arkansas
Round 3 (66) – Max Tuerk, C, USC
Round 4 (102) – Joshua Perry, ILB, Ohio State
Round 5 (175) – Jatavis Brown, OLB, Akron
Round 6 (179) – Drew Kaser, P, Texas A&M
Round 6 (198) – Derek Watt, FB, Wisconsin
Round 7 (224) – Donavon Clark, OT, Michigan State

General manager Tom Telesco made a curious choice in selection Bosa with the third-overall pick. Instead of taking a lockdown left tackle, Telesco rolled the dice on a defensive end who is built for the 4-3 defense, not San Diego’s 3-4.

Beyond Bosa, the picks make more sense. Henry is going to eventually replace Gates as the top tight end while Tuerk could start immediately on an offensive line that desperately needs to show improvement. Perry could also unseat Manti Te’o.

Offseason moves

Acquired

Brandon Mebane, NT (3 years, $13 million)
Travis Benjamin, WR (4 years, $24 million)
Casey Heyward, CB (3 years, $15 million)

Lost

Ladarius Green, TE (PIT – 4 years, $24 million)
Eric Weddle, S (BAL – 4 years, $29 million)
Patrick Robinson, CB (IND – 3 years, $14 million)

X-Factor

Brandon Flowers — an aging player who coming off the worst season of his career — is no longer the youthful corner who always seemed to border on being a Pro Bowler. Now 31, Flowers has to show he can still take on receivers outside the numbers, or the Chargers are in big trouble.

San Diego has a quality, lockdown corner in Jason Verrett, but his abilities will be mitigated if Flowers can’t bounce back. The AFC West is loaded with top receiving talent, ranging from Demaryius Thomas and Jeremy Maclin to Amari Cooper and Emmanuel Sanders.

Bottom Line

The Chargers should be better than their 4-12 record from 2015 indicates, but it will be tough for them to climb out of the AFC West basement. Kansas City, Denver, and Oakland are all better and deeper, making it hard to see a way for the Chargers to compete for a playoff spot.

San Diego has so many questions surrounding it, including whether or not a franchise move is coming after 2016. On the field, it’s fair to question whether the defense can hold up and if Gordon can become the running back the Chargers need him to be.