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50 Shades of Fantasy Football, Vol. IV: Week 1

By Mike Randle

Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 16, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) celebrates a touchdown with running back Eddie Lacy (27) against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter of a NFC Divisional round playoff game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /
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Aug 25, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) carries the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during a NFL football game at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks defeated the Cowboys 27-17. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 25, 2016; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) carries the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during a NFL football game at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks defeated the Cowboys 27-17. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin had 14 total touchdowns in 2015, 11 more than he tallied in 2014.
  2. Baldwin has 17 Red Zone targets in 2015, which is only an increase of five from 2014 (12 Red Zone targets).
  3. In 2013, Baldwin scored four touchdowns on five Red Zone targets. Over the past three season, Baldwin has always been very efficient with his Red Zone targets.
  4. Over the past three seasons, the Seahawks played 39 games with former star running back Marshawn Lynch. In those 39 games, Baldwin has averaged 3.79 receptions, 50.6 yards, and 0.26 touchdowns per game. He’s averaged 10.4 points per game in PPR leagues, and 6.6 points per game in standard leagues.
  5. Over the past three seasons, the Seahawks played nine games without former Marshawn Lynch. In those nine games, Baldwin averaged 5.1 receptions, 77.3 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game. In PPR leagues, he has averaged 20.8 points per game, and in standard leagues he averaged 15.7 points per game.
  6. Marshawn Lynch has retired, and therefore will not be playing for the Seahawks on Sunday.

Prediction: Baldwin will continue his incredible efficiency from 2015. The much talked about “Baldwin touchdown regression” will fail to occur, and he will produce top-five fantasy output at the WR position for the opening week.

 

Jan 10, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) is tackled by Seattle Seahawks outside linebacker K.J. Wright (50) in the first half in a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 10, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) is tackled by Seattle Seahawks outside linebacker K.J. Wright (50) in the first half in a NFC Wild Card playoff football game at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports /
  1. Adrian Peterson had an outstanding 2015 season, finishing first in the league in carries (327), as well as rushing yards (1,485).
  2. In the seven games where quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for over 200 yards, Peterson averaged 63 rushing yards and 0.4 touchdowns per game.
  3. In the nine games where Bridgewater failed to throw for over 200 yards, Peterson averaged 115.3 yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game.
  4. Peterson’s Snap Share percentage among all running backs last season was 66.1 percent (PlayerProfiler.com). This means he came off the field once every three plays. This only ranked 23rd overall at the running back position.
  5. When Shaun Hill has been the Vikings starting quarterback in a road game, Peterson has averaged 16 rushing attempts, 36.3 rushing yards, and just 4.1 fantasy points per game.
  6. Shaun Hill has been announced as Minnesota’s starter in Sunday’s opening game at Tennessee.

Prediction: Peterson will finish with under 100 yards and no touchdowns. Hence, he will shock fantasy owners and finish outside the top-12 running backs. 

Next: Shades 29-41

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