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Falcons at Saints: Game preview, odds, prediction

By John Buhler

Oct 15, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) scores a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the fourth quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 15, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22) scores a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons during the fourth quarter of a game at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /
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The New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Here is the game preview, the betting odds and a score prediction.

The New Orleans Saints (0-2) will play their biggest rival in the Atlanta Falcons (1-1) on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Kickoff on Monday, Sept. 26 is at 8:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. ESPN will be airing the telecast.

New Orleans is looking for its first win of the season after losing two straight heartbreakers to begin the year. The Saints have lost by a combined four points in their two defeats to the Oakland Raiders and the New York Giants.

Atlanta bounced back from a tough Week 1 loss to the NFC South rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Raiders on the road in Oakland. The Falcons have scored as many points (59) as they have allowed (59) in two weeks.

According to OddsShark.com, New Orleans is a field goal favorite over the Falcons in this one. Given the nature of this NFC South rivalry, that is about where the point spread needs to be: the home team getting a field goal edge. The moneylines are New Orleans -165 and Atlanta +140. This game’s over/under is set at 53.5.

Odds

Point Spread: New Orleans -3

Moneylines: New Orleans -165, Atlanta +140

Over/Under: 53.5

This will be the 95th meeting between these two bitter rivals. Atlanta holds a four-game lead in the all-time series, but the Saints swept the Falcons in 2015. New Orleans was swept by Atlanta the year before in 2014.

Atlanta has been terrible against the spread in recent games, going 3-11 in its last 14 games. The Falcons did, however, cover on the road in Week 2 to upset the favored Raiders. Atlanta has also trended under in five of its last six games away from the Georgia Dome.

New Orleans has done well against the spread (5-2) in its last seven games, but that hasn’t translated to being dominant in straight up bets. The Saints are 3-7 in their last seven games. New Orleans, unlike Atlanta, has gone over in its last five home games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

This game feels like a certain shootout. Go with the over for two reasons: 1. New Orleans needs to play shootouts to win ball games. The Saints defense isn’t stopping anyone. 2. Atlanta has put up 29.5 points per game on offense in 2016. It looks like quarterback Matt Ryan is finally gelling in Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast system.

For both teams, this is a must-win game, but for different reasons. The Saints are the only team in the NFC South that has yet to win a game in 2016. They cannot afford to fall to 0-3 with the Falcons moving to 2-1. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored over the Los Angeles Rams at home. The Carolina Panthers are favored to beat the Minnesota Vikings in Charlotte.

Falcons head coach Dan Quinn has been abysmal in NFC South play since taking over the team in 2015. His Falcons have gone 1-6 in divisional play during the Quinn era in Flowery Branch. Atlanta also faces the toughest strength of schedule of any NFL team in 2016 based on win/loss record from the year before.

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Atlanta has the slightly better roster in 2016. Should the Falcons mitigate turnovers and be able to run the ball effectively with running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, Atlanta will win a close game in the Big Easy to end the Saints’ winning streak against them at two games.

Pick: Falcons 30, Saints 28

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