FanDuel NFL: Picks and Pivots for Week 3

Sep 18, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) walks off the field after a 38-14 loss to San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 18, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles (5) walks off the field after a 38-14 loss to San Diego Chargers at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel NFL: Picks and Pivots for Week 3

Welcome to the NFL edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy football column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NFL lineup! The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!

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After an action packed and injury riddled week 2 with multiple players including Adrian Peterson down with an injury, it will open up value options across the board to plug into our lineups. Which newly minted starters become DFS options and which should we look to fade when building our lineup?

For those of you who read last week’s column, I started off my roster with a hyped up Week 1 Quarterback who I felt would go overlooked in Week 2 and allow us to get him at a fraction of the ownership. Ultimately Dak Prescott put up a solid 18.28 FanDuel points but what was staggering to me was that in the $2 single Entry Featured FanDuel Tournament he was 1.1% owned across 46,000 lineups!

Now flash back to Week 2 when every fantasy expert pumped the Giants and Saints game as a must play and not surprisingly we saw inflated ownership of Eli Manning and Drew BreesBoth quarterbacks disappointed, actually putting up fewer fantasy points than the aforementioned Prescott.

I imagine at this point you know where I am going with this, but this seems like the perfect chance to go back to Eli Manning ($7,700) when everyone else moves on to the new “flavor of the week” buzz pick!

Although the fantasy points were not there, the yards most certainly were as Eli racked up 368 yards against the Saints across 41 pass attempts. Take into consideration that Eli lost a touchdown on a beautifully thrown ball that Odell Beckham Jr. flat-out dropped and his output looks largely different.

In our FanDuel positional breakout, Matt Rogers highlights Eli Manning as one of the best value plays on the board and the match up against the Redskins is one we can exploit as they have given up 295 yards/game to QB’s over the first two weeks.

The Giants may be without Rashad Jennings which would put even more focus on Eli to move the offense and this is a case where I expect the masses to move away from Manning after Week 2 and gives us the opportunity to nab him at a reduced ownership in Week 3.

Melvin Gordon ($7,100): Well hello chalk! Listen, if you read any sort of Week 3 preview this week, fantasy experts are going to tout Melvin Gordon as a top play so I am not telling you anything you may not already have heard, but this is an instance where I feel like eating the chalk is warranted.

I spend a lot of time in various DFS community discussions across social media and one of the most common themes I see in football is that people tend to try to get cute and come up with the “home run lineup.” Maybe this is a result of people seeing the FanDuel commercials and trying to find that one guy that will win them a million dollars, but honestly sometimes it is just that people try to be contrarian just for contrarian sake and that is a mistake.

Take last week as an example, everyone was on C.J. Anderson against the Colts as the match up was ripe and the price point at $7,800 was easy to utilize. In the $2 Single Entry Featured Tournament, Anderson was 34.5% owned and was found neatly placed on the winning entry. Sometimes there is no need to be contrarian if the match up and price warrant it, and this is EXACTLY where I find myself with Gordon this week.

Gordon gets the same exploitable match up with the Colts defense that has given up the most fantasy points to running backs and with the injury to Danny Woodhead last week on top of the Week 1 injury to Keenan Allen, this sets up to be the Melvin Gordon show.

David Johnson ($8,400) is projected to be the top scoring RB per Fantasy Pros and this may be the week to pay up at running back with significant value to be found in other spots. Johnson has been very solid so far this season averaging 18.5 points per game which is 6th most in FanDuel and the match up against a Bills defense that just got shredded by Matt Forte and the Jets is not one we should avoid.

Johnson is one of the top fantasy plays in the game and his price has come down to a point where I feel like we should look to target him as others pivot to potentially more popular plays at similar price points.

Stefon Diggs ($6,400) : Oh hey there chalk, good to see you again! I am sorry, but you are telling me that I can target a WR who is second in all the NFL in FanDuel points per game for $6,400? Also have you heard the Vikings lost Adrian Peterson which likely means even more involvement for the top play maker on the Vikings? As we outlined in our WR Fantasy Preview for Week 3, Diggs is the clear top value option on the board and he makes for an easy plug and play in all formats. Fade at your own risk!

T.Y. Hilton ($7,400) is one of the top mid-tier WR targets as the Colts wide out has racked up 23 targets over the first two games and with the news that Donte Moncrief is facing a multi-week absence, this sets up nicely for a big day for T.Y. The Colts/Chargers game is expected to be a shoot out and with San Diego giving up 350 yards per game in the air (29th in the league), I will let other folks pivot to the “DFS Sleeper” in Phillip Dorsett who will step in for Moncrief and I will happily take Andrew Luck‘s top target!

Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,900): Going back to my take on Eli Manning, OBJ was a top choice last week that disappointed so I will happily go back to the well here and stack my QB-WR spot with two of the best in the NFL. Beckham had 11 targets last week and dropped a sure touchdown on a perfectly thrown ball by Manning which would have given him a 20 point day that many fantasy owners would have been ecstatic with.

Beckham gets to face off with old buddy Josh Norman this week and assuming he doesn’t get into an ejection forcing brawl, I will look to get a big day from the Giants superstar while others pivot away from him!

Dennis Pitta ($5,000) is a great value play at TE this week as I expect the Ravens and Jaguars to get into an under the radar shoot-out with two pass heavy offenses. Pitta racked up 12 targets last week, hauling in 9 of them for 102 yards and at this price point, gives you significant flexibility elsewhere when building your lineups!

More from DFS

Josh Lambo ($4,500) When I select my kickers I am simply looking for offenses I expect to move the ball and games with high projected totals. The Chargers and Colts game profiles as one of the highest scoring on the slate and this gives you exposure to that game at the kicking position.

Cowboys Defense ($4,600) I expect EVERYONE to be on the Miami Dolphins against the Browns at this same price point which gives us a spot to pivot and differentiate ourselves in tournaments. The Cowboys get a home match up against the Brian Hoyer led Chicaco Bears on Sunday night which allows us to roster the late game hammer(now that FanDuel has taken the Monday night game off the Main slate).

Next: FanDuel Week 3 WR's

Best of luck in this week’s contests! Enjoy your weekend and we will see you back here next week!