DraftKings Main MLB Picks For September 29
There are ten games for the main DraftKings tournament in the last less than full day during the MLB regular season. It has been a wild ride! Half of the pitchers on DraftKings today top the $8,000 mark. Which ones are worth using? Let’s take a look at the past stats for some help.
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
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Next: Should You Dismiss These Pitchers Because Of No Past History?
Ivan Nova has held the current Cubs to a .217 average in 46 at bats, though most of that has come against Ben Zobrist. Nova has by far his worst start at a Pirate on Saturday against the Nationals. He could have similar bad luck tonight against another high-powered offense in the Cubs.
Rob Zastryzny will get his first start against the Pirates tonight, though it seems as if the Cubs are just going to use a lot of relievers to get through this start in order to rest the rotation for the playoffs. The Pirates are 2-3 with a RBI (a Josh Harrison sac fly) and a walk against Zastryzny in relief, so you probably don’t want to start him anyway.
Alex Reyes pitched well in his start against the Reds on September 2nd. Reyes gave up two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out seven in six innings, but he took the hard-luck loss. He still put up 18.7 DraftKings points, which is solid for his $7,400 price. Don’t be surprised if he does it again.
Ariel Miranda has never faced the A’s. Miranda seems to have locked down a rotation spot for next year, going 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in five September starts. Miranda looks like a solid play against Oakland tonight.
Julio Urias gave up two runs (though neither were allowed by him) on only three hits to the Padres at the beginning of the month in 5.1 innings. He also struck out six. He still wont go deep into the game, but he can get you more than a strikeout per inning while he is in there.
Next: Pitcher Picks
Danny Duffy ($10,500): The Twins are hitting a respectable .253 against Danny Duffy, but they only have two home runs and just nine runs in 170 at bats. The injured Trevor Plouffe is responsible for one of those homers. Duffy only has 35 strikeouts, but he has proven that he can strike out every other team. It’s only a matter of time before the Twins get up to speed in that respect. Duffy also fanned ten Twins back on September 7th. There is a lot of pyrite in tonight’s pitchers, but Duffy looks like gold.
Dan Straily ($9,900): The Cardinals are only hitting .170 against Straily in 47 at bats. They do have two homers, but only three driven in and have struck out ten times. The Cardinals are still in the mix for a playoff spot, and it really is do or die for them at this point. Can they do against Straily? It’s a tough order tonight.
Jon Gray ($10,400): Gray dominated the Giants back on May 7th in San Francisco. He gave up just one hit in seven shutout innings, but only struck out five. That is my issue with this price. He has great strikeout upside, but the Giants don’t strike out much, and he has to face the Giants’ ace tonight. Gray will likely put up good numbers, I’m just not sure they will justify this price tag.
Jose Quintana ($9,700): Some will take a look at the .306 average that the Rays have hung on Quintana and run the other way. However, Quintana has only given up one home run in 62 at bats and only five runs. He has also racked up an impressive 16 strikeouts. He will likely allow his share of baserunners, but the strikeout – and win – potential is very high.
Don’t forget to check out the DFS Lineup Optimizer over at FantasyPros. You can also pick your favorite players or favorite stack, and it will optimize the lineup around that! It really is an invaluable tool for you DFS players!
This game is at AT&T Park, but the Rockies may still be worth using against Johnny Cueto. Carlos Gonzalez ($3,800) is 9-26(.346) with two walks, a double, a homer, and six RBI against Cueto. DJ LeMahieu ($3,200) has eight hits in 24 at bats with a double and a RBI. Gerardo Parra ($2,000) is 12-35(.343) with three walks, four doubles, two homers, and three RBI. Nolan Arenado ($4,200) is just 3-17(.176) against Cueto. However, he has two walks, a homer, and two RBI. Charlie Blackmon ($4,200) is 7-23(.304) with a double and a RBI.
Jose Abreu ($3,600) is 5-12 with a homer and three RBI against Chris Archer. Alex Avila‘s ($2,800) only hit in six at bats is a solo homer, but he has also walked four times. Melky Cabrera ($3,900) is on fire lately, and he is 5-23(.217) with a walk and three RBI against Archer. Tyler Saladino ($3,400) has two hits in three at bats against Archer with a solo homer.
Pedro Alvarez ($3,500) is 3-8 with a solo homer against Marcus Stroman. Matt Wieters ($3,400) has four hits in ten at bats with a walk, a double, two homers, and five RBI. Manny Machado ($4,000) has three hits in nine at bats with a double, a homer, and two RBI. Steve Pearce ($3,200) is 4-7 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI against Stroman. Adam Jones ($3,700) has six hits in 11 at bats with a walk and two RBI. Even Ryan Flaherty ($2,600) has gotten in on the action. He is 3-11 with a double, a homer, and four RBI off of Stroman.
Facing Ubaldo Jimenez is an automatic stack nowadays. Josh Donaldson ($5,200) is only 5-26(.192), but he has two walks, a double, a triple, a homer, and six RBI against Ubaldo. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,600) has nine hits in 39 at bats(.231) with eight walks, three doubles, a homer, and five RBI. Russell Martin ($3,300) has yet to hit a home run against Ubaldo, but he is 12-45(.267) with nine walks, two doubles, and five RBI. Michael Saunders ($3,200) is 9-19(.474) with two walks, a double, four homers, and nine RBI. Devon Travis ($3,500) is 4-11 with a double, a homer, and four RBI already. Melvin Upton, Jr. ($3,200) has six hits in 22 at bats (.273) with a walk, a double, a homer, and four RBI against Ubaldo. Ezequiel Carrera ($3,200) has three doubles and two RBI in only five at bats.
If you are looking to go cheap, Alex Gordon ($4,200) is 9-25(.360) with five walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Kyle Gibson. Alcides Escobar ($3,500) is 10-29(.345) with a walk, a double, and a RBI. Eric Hosmer ($3,600) is 8-29(.276) with three walks, three doubles, and five RBI against Gibson. Raul Mondesi ($2,800) picked up a RBI double in his two at bats against Gibson on August 12. Kendrys Morales ($4,000) is 5-21(.238) with two walks, two doubles, a homer, and four RBI against Gibson. Drew Butera ($2,800) has four hits in five at bats with a solo homer.
Kendall Graveman has been absolutely punished by the Mariners. Nori Aoki ($4,000) is 6-11 with two walks, three doubles, and two RBI. Robinson Cano ($5,500) has six hits in 13 at bats with two walks, three doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Nelson Cruz ($4,900) is a staggering 10-15 with two doubles, a homer, and four driven in against Graveman. Seth Smith ($3,700) is a good play if he can take the field. Smith has eight hits in 15 at bats, but all of the hits are singles and he has only driven in one.
The Dodgers have hit Christian Friedrich hard. Adrian Gonzalez ($3,300) is 5-12 with a homer and two RBI. Yasmani Grandal ($4,000) has five hits in seven at bats with a walk, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Howie Kendrick ($4,000) has two hits in six at bats with a walk and a double, but no counting stats. Joc Pederson ($4,000) is 2-5 with a walk, a homer, and three RBI. Carlos Ruiz ($2,700) has three hits in four tries with two doubles. Corey Seager ($4,500) is 2-5 with a double and two driven in against Friedrich.
Backup catcher Ryan Hanigan ($2,400) has hit CC Sabathia pretty well. He is 6-16(.375) with a double and a solo homer against him. David Ortiz ($5,100) is only 16-73(.219) with five walks, three doubles, two homers, and seven RBI off of Sabathia. Dustin Pedroia ($4,300) is 17-65(.262) with eight walks, three doubles, and three RBI. Sandy Leon ($2,900) has three hits in five tries with a homer and four RBI against Sabathia. Mookie Betts ($5,100) is 5-11, but he only has a walk and two RBI to show for it.
Next: More Notes For 9-29
Logan Forsythe ($4,000) has done all of the damage for the Rays against Jose Quintana. Don’t get me wrong, the team is hitting .306 against Quintana for a reason, but Forsythe has the only homer and all five of the RBI. He also has three doubles and a single to go with his homer in eight at bats.
Cody Asche ($3,400) is 3-8 with a homer and two RBI against Josh Collmenter. A.J. Ellis ($2,900) has four hits in 11 at bats with four walks and two solo homers. Cesar Hernandez ($4,500) has four hits in five attempts with two doubles and three RBI. Darin Ruf ($3,900) is 2-3 with a walk and a solo homer against Collmenter.
Brian Dozier ($4,700) is 8-32 with two walks, four doubles, a triple, and two RBI against Danny Duffy. Robbie Grossman ($3,900) has five hits in eight at bats with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI.
Jedd Gyorko ($3,600) only has one hit in five at bats against Dan Straily, but it is a solo home run.
Adonis Garcia ($3,800) has three hits in eight at bats against Jeremy Hellickson with a walk, a double, and two RBI. Matt Kemp ($3,700) is 7-18(.389) with a walk, a double, a triple, a homer, and six RBI against Hellickson. Nick Markakis ($3,600) only has 10 hits in 49 at bats(.204) against Hellickson, but he has three walks, a double, two homers, and seven RBI.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from our experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks and alternative plays if you don’t want to follow the herd. Don’t play FanDuel before checking it out!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball and stay tuned for advice on Week 4 in the NFL!