Chiefs at Steelers: Game preview, odds, prediction
By James Dudko
After a 2-0 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers were brought crashing back to earth by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3. Now the Black and Gold face a tough task rebounding against the solid Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs were big winners last week after topping the New York Jets 24-3. But only 10 of those points came from the offense. Head coach Andy Reid will need more from quarterback Alex Smith and Co. at Heinz Field on Sunday night.
Reid should be optimistic after watching protege Doug Pederson use an offense he helped design to overwhelm the Steelers in Philly. Pederson ran the offense in Kansas City for Reid for three seasons before taking over as the Eagles head coach this year.
It’s not a stretch to say Reid taught him everything he knows. Like the Eagles, the Chiefs run a scheme that is the closest to Bill Walsh’s original idea of the west coast offense as there is in today’s game.
Plays are packaged around a myriad of formations, but the concepts are simple. It’s all about a clock-eating pass attack designed to free receivers after the catch on quarterback-friendly reads.
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The Steelers couldn’t live with the formula last week, despite boasting a group of highly versatile linebackers. Head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Kevin Butler will expect better from Lawrence Timmons and Jarvis Jones.
What really would help the Steelers defense is more pressure inside. Tackles Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward were hugely disappointing against the Eagles, too easily pushed around by a dominant O-line.
This is a defense with just one sack through three games. Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette put the measly number into a dismal context: “That represents the fewest sacks the Steelers produced over the first three games of a season since the NFL recognized the sack as an official statistic in 1982.”
It might be time for the Steelers to get back to their zone-blitzing roots. Tomlin and Butler have been playing a coverage-based Tampa 2 scheme but lack the pass-rushers to make it work.
Odds
Line: PITT (-4)
Over/Under: 48.5
Prediction
The Steelers should take note of how the Jets sacked Smith twice last week and made him very uncomfortable in the pocket.
That’s something the Chiefs usually specialize in, although their resources are looking a little threadbare. Justin Houston is still out, so fellow outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Dee Ford need to pick up the slack.
The Eagles swarmed on Ben Roethlisberger by routinely collapsing the pocket from the inside. In particular, tackle Fletcher Cox ran rampant, so the Steelers must be wary of Dontari Poe and Jaye Howard this week.
If Roethlisberger does get time to throw, he’ll be wise to keep the ball away from Marcus Peters. Arguably the best young cornerback in the NFL, Peters boasts a deadly blend of size and physicality with dynamic ball skills.
Of course, Roethlisberger’s job can be made a lot easier by the return of dual-threat running back Le’Veon Bell. The runner with moves most players can only dream of emulating, as well as top-notch receiving skills, is set to be back in action after serving a three-game suspension.
Bell’s return puts a different complexion on this match-up, even if gaudy numbers might be beyond him in his first game back against a very good defense. But his big play potential and versatility can expand the playbook for offensive coordinator Todd Haley and give the Steelers the dimension they were missing in Philadelphia.
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The Chiefs got a defensive touchdown and one from the special teams last week. Yet without those, it will be a long night in the Steel City.
Pick: Steelers 21, Chiefs 12