2016-17 NBA Preview: Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have a streak of nine consecutive years in the playoffs, stretching back to Al Horford’s rookie season. But that era is gone — he was the last of their old core trio (Joe Johnson and Josh Smith) remaining on the roster. The team still has the same system and most of the same faces, but something will be missing. The Hawks may very well continue soldiering on and making the playoffs again, as they always do, but it will be tougher this season. And there’s a new face: hometown boy Dwight Howard.

The pattern of the prodigal is: rebellion, ruin, repentance, reconciliation, restoration. – Edwin Louis Cole

2015-16 in review

The “regression to the mean” assassin had a giant target painted onto the backs of the Atlanta Hawks for 2016, and it hit hard: they won only 48 games, 12 fewer than the year before. The drop wasn’t as large as the records suggested, as their expected win totals from their point differentials fell from only 55 to 51, but there was a noticeable decline.

Kyle Korver, in particular, wasn’t the same — he’s the primary cause. Paul Millsap, however, had a heroic season, as there were very few players last season who had solid arguments for playing better defense. In fact, the team overall was second in defensive rating, per Basketball-Reference, and their vaunted high-movement, active passing offense was below average. Overall, they were one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference, but they clearly lacked a higher gear to compete with the elite teams.

Rotation players in: Dwight Howard, Malcolm Delaney, Taurean Prince.

Rotation players out: Al Horford, Jeff Teague.

Effectively, Atlanta traded two of its best players, Horford and Teague, for Dwight Howard and a draft pick that turned into Taurean Prince. This is a mini-rebuild because it’s a makeover of their core group without a drastic reversal anywhere. What’s odd is that they’ve decided to add a young piece while signing an older one to a 70 million dollar deal. It’s the sort of move a smart team completes — adding youth and long-term potential while remaining competitive — but this isn’t a game-changer, unless Prince or Howard surprise everyone. Malcolm Delaney, by the way, is a veteran point guard of the Euroleague who’s known for his shooting and unselfishness; by some accounts, he could be a smart addition and their backup point.

2016-17 Projected

Most people believe the Hawks will be at least a little worse next season, but for the holdovers there are a couple important points to cover: Dwight Howard’s disappointing value and Dennis Schroder’s impact. Jeff Teague’s absence is important here, at least for the depth chart, even if he wasn’t their best player.

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Since Al Horford has been an all-star recently while Dwight Howard has not since 2014, I want to conclude that people generally understand that Horford is a better player right now, even when people divorce themselves from Howard’s off-court issues and look at things objectively. But something should be emphasized: there’s little evidence Howard is even an above average player anymore. Sure, he technically projects slightly above average, but it is indeed slight — Orlando Magic Howard is only a memory now.

Here’s some simple evidence: Dwight Howard played nearly twice the minutes last season as he did in 2015, yet the Rockets were far worse. There are other factors at play, obviously, but you can do some fancy adjustments and come to similar conclusion. He’s just no longer a positive force. He still has value defensively, due to his wingspan, strength, and rebounding, but he’s been an obstacle on offense, not an asset, and he lost a lot of what made him special athletically. Al Horford is a better player and it’s not close.

Unfortunately, there’s another major downgrade too: Dennis Schroder has a lot to improve before he’s as valuable as Jeff Teague. He’s already made tremendous progress from his rookie season when he had some of the ugliest stats ever seen in the modern game, but right now he’s a high usage player with below average efficiency and shaky defense. That’s not the healthiest option for a team’s starting lineup, and only the most optimistic projections see the Hawks not skipping a beat without Teague — sure, it could happen, but it’s not as likely as other scenarios.

Elsewhere, the team is largely intact, and they do have a couple of factors on their side. Kyle Korver should be better, even though he’s in his mid-30’s. Also, Tiago Splitter could also improve on his disappointing 2016 season where he was limited by a hip injury. When healthy, he provides more to the Hawks than Howard — he just needs to stay on the court and regain what made him special near the basket. There’s a decent stock of young guys too, like the 7′ 3″ shot-blocking menace Walter Traveres, who could provide the Hawks with the production they’ll miss from Horford’s absence.

Quick statistic

Paul Millsap deservedly received some second- and third-place votes for Defensive Player of the Year, but it’s hard to explain to someone succinctly what he does so well. One area where he stands out, however, is steals. In fact, he collected more steals than blocks last season, which is impressive because 139 blocks is nothing to ignore.

Since 1997, no frontcourt player has had more blocks than Millsap while simultaneously having more steals than blocks. It’s a tricky balance only athletic beasts and great defensive players can muster. Andre Drummond, surprisingly, has come the closest. Looking at seasons before 1997, there is someone who surpassed Millsap, and it’s legendary defender Bobby Jones back in 1977. (Yet oddly enough, four of the top six seasons since 1997 were from just last season.)

2017-preview-atl-stls-blks /

Summary

The Atlanta Hawks will chase one of the lower seeds in their conference. They’ve lost some talent, and there’s no evidence yet they’ve found anything to fill the vacancies effectively. Atlanta might be the ideal location for Dwight Howard to rediscover some of his old value, due to their spacing, coaching, and pass-happy system, but it’s wise to be skeptical and assume the status quo: he’s not a special player anymore, and not close really. But the Hawks will need a boon like that to take homecourt advantage again, because it’s now unlikely.

Win predictions:

Mine: 39.0. A blend of several metrics, including Dredge, with a few other factors considered, like coaching.

Andrew Johnson’s: 43. A combination of PT-PM (a SportVU player tracking metric) blended with RAPM. Two-time reigning champion of the APBRmetrics board predictions contest.

Nick Restifo’s: 41 A simulation using BPM and RPM for player value, which includes game effects like altitude and rest.

Kevin Ferrigan’s: 40. A player projection system with inputs from RAPM, BPM, height, and age.

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