DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 6 Top Plays
By Ty Wrage
DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 6 Top Plays
DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 6 Top Plays is a column that finds the players who are in the best situation to do well that week based primarily off opportunity and match up. You’ll get an insight into the mind of a consistently profitable DFS player and give yourself the best chance at hitting it big on the week’s slate!
For the second week in a row, if you read this column, you’re coming into the Week 6 slate with more money in your DraftKings account! Big Ben went off for 4 TD’s, Jordan Howard and Demarco Murray both put up huge games, and T.Y. Hilton had a monster day that should’ve put you in good positions for your cash games and GPPs.
This week’s slate looks like it’ll have plenty of fantasy potential with possible shootouts between CAR/NO, JAX/CHI, and KC/OAK. There are a lot of injuries we’ll need to keep an eye on, but I believe that this’ll be another week where value will not be hard to find. Let’s dive in!
DraftKings NFL Picks: Quarterbacks
Drew Brees ($7,900): The Saints/Panthers game has the highest Vegas total on the slate, and for the Saints, Brees seems to be the obvious beneficiary of this matchup. If the Saints are scoring points, it’s likely going to be due to the passing game. Carolina comes in as three point favorites, so New Orleans should score points. Through 5 weeks, they lead the NFL in passing attempts per game with 44, and with their porous defense, they’ll almost always have to keep throwing the football. Brees is also noticeably better at home than on the road, so look for The Superdome Effect to be in full force on Sunday.
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Carolina’s run defense remains stout, but their secondary has struggled after losing Josh Norman and Charles Tillman in the offseason. They don’t have any cornerbacks or safeties that have an above average player ranking thus far, so all of the Saints’ targets will have good matchups. They’ve been middle of the road to bottom of the pack in nearly every category for passing defense. They allow the sixth-most yards per passing attempt in the league, and when you combine that with the Saints’ 44 attempts per game, it spells fantasy gold for Brees.
Dak Prescott ($5,900): In a week where there are a lot of elite running backs in prime matchups, we need to find value somewhere, and at quarterback I like Dak Prescott as the best option under $6,000. Since his week 1 hype, Prescott has quietly been putting up great numbers, finishing with at least 18 fantasy points in each of his last 4 games. His ability to make plays with his legs gives him a very high floor, making him a great cash game play. Green Bay is 4 point favorites in the projected second-highest scoring game on the slate, so the Cowboys passing game should get plenty of work.
The Packers have really struggled to defend the pass this season, ranking 24th in passing yards per game. With Sam Shields injured, Dallas wideouts are going to be in great spots against the likes of Damarious Randall and Ladarius Gunter. They do, however, have an elite run defense, so despite Ezekiel Elliott‘s success so far, the Cowboys might have to turn to the pass early and often if they can’t get anything going on the ground. With the pressure that the Packers put on opposing quarterbacks, he might have the opportunity to get more done with his legs.
Others I Like: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, Matthew Stafford, Alex Smith
DraftKings NFL Picks: Running Backs
Le’Veon Bell ($7,900): Since coming back in week 4, the Steelers wasted no time giving Bell a full workload, as he’s finished with 23 and 29 touches against two very good run defenses in Kansas City and the Jets. Not only has he been handling the bulk of the rushing duties, but they’ve also been lining him up as a wideout where he competes with the stone-handed Sammie Coates for the number two role. He’s averaged 8.5 targets per game, which is by far the best number in the league. This gives him a ridiculously high floor and makes him script independent.
Last week I said to target Demarco Murray against the Miami defense, and he responded with 121 yards rushing and 5 catches. The same reasons apply to Bell this week. The Dolphins run a defensive scheme called the Wide 9 on a lot of plays, which gives them a huge edge on the outside but makes them exploitable in the middle. Pittsburgh is a 7.5 point favorite in this one and I don’t see the struggling Dolphins keeping up, so Bell should have lots of opportunity.
LeSean McCoy ($6,900): The Bills are a team with just two offensive weapons, and Sammy Watkins has been battling injury all season so this is Shady’s team. His touches the last 5 weeks are: 20, 19, 20, 25, 20. He’s getting 47% of the team’s usage and 40% of their red zone usage. Buffalo is 7.5 point favorites over the 49ers, so they should hit pay dirt a few times and be able to run the clock out, giving McCoy plenty of work.
The Niners have been a typical Chip Kelly offense thus far playing fast and furious on offense. With Colin Kaepernick now starting, the Niners should have very short possessions, so I expect the Bills to run a ton of plays here. San Francisco has allowed the second most rushing yards this season (behind the Dolphins), and without Navarro Bowman, that’s not going to get any better.
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Jordan Howard ($6,200): After offseason rumors of shifting to more of a running back-by-committee approach this year, John Fox has made it quite obvious that Jordan Howard is the lead back in Chicago moving forward. Howard has been very impressive, running for 111 and 118 yards in his first two starts. Jeremy Langford will still be out this week with injury, and while Ka’Deem Carey is back, he played on just two snaps last week, so Howard’s role in the offense is safe heading into a matchup vs. the Jaguars.
Jacksonville made some big changes to their defense this offseason, but the results haven’t quite been there this season. They’ve allowed 105 rushing yards per game to the likes of Frank Gore, Melvin Gordon, and the Baltimore backs. They should theoretically be able to defend the pass fairly well after bringing in guys like Prince Amukamara and Jalen Ramsey, so the Bears might be funneled into running the ball more than usual.
Others I Like: Demarco Murray, Christine Michael, Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, Theo Riddick, Carlos Hyde, Gio Bernard, Isaiah Crowell
DraftKings NFL Picks: Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper ($7,500): After terrible luck cost him several huge games (he could’ve had 3 touchdowns week 1), Cooper finally found the end zone against the Chargers last week, finishing with a whopping 30.8 fantasy points. Cooper averages over 9 targets per game, and while Michael Crabtree is leading the team in red zone targets, we have to figure that will even out due to Cooper’s incredible athletic ability and his connection with Carr.
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The Chiefs defense has been known for being tough on opposing passing games, but they have yet to show that after losing Sean Smith and Patrick Robinson in the offseason. They don’t shadow, so Cooper will matchup with Phillip Gaines on the left side, where he plays on 56% of his snaps. Gaines has been awful this season with a CB rating of just 44.3 (out of 100), and other teams are targeting him on 22% of his routes defended. Crabtree will draw Marcus Peters on the right side, who’s been much better this year. Cooper should get a full compliment of targets in a prime matchup, making him my top wideout on the slate.
Jarvis Landry ($6,800): The Dolphins have been a hot mess on both sides of the ball this year, with fans calling for the benching of Ryan Tannehill after 9 turnovers in the last 4 games. Even though Landry was targeted just 3 times last week, that was mainly due to the Titans eating up so much clock (Tannehill only attempted 18 passes). The week before, with tight end Jordan Cameron, Landry saw more than half of the Miami targets, so this is a great bounce back spot for him given his almost guaranteed target load.
The Steelers are the biggest funnel defense in the league, as opponents have passed on more than 70% of their plays against them so far. Combine that with Miami likely playing from behind for most of this one, and the ‘Fins passing game will be busy. Landry will play about 80% of his snaps lined up against Sean Davis in the slot, who has just a 40.6 CB rating. I wouldn’t be surprised if Landry saw close to 15 targets in this one, making him an ideal cash game target.
Michael Thomas ($4,300): In order to afford some of the top-tier running backs this week, we’ll need to find value elsewhere, and Ohio State product Michael Thomas is my first cheap play at WR. The Saints lead the league in passing attempts, and Drew Brees has been known to spread out his targets, making it generally hard to pick a pass-catching target. However, Thomas could very possibly lead the Saints in targets this game, and he’s priced criminally low at $4,300.
Brees has latched onto Thomas lately, giving him 9 and 11 targets in his last two games. He also leads the Saints with his 6 red zone targets, and he’s taken advantage of that with a touchdown in each of his last two games. Thomas will see about equal time against James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, neither of whom I’m scared of targeting. Also, the Panthers are very good against tight ends, so Coby Fleener, the main threat to Thomas’s red zone targets, should see a decrease in volume.
Cameron Meredith ($4,100): It was hard to win a GPP last week without Cameron Meredith in your lineup last week, finishing with 30.6 fantasy points at the minimum salary of $3,000. His salary went up $1,100, but I still like him as one of the top value plays on the board. Kevin White, the Bears’ target leader, was placed on IR, and it looks like Meredith will eat up just about all those looks. With Alshon Jeffrey, Eddie Royal, and Zach Miller all dealing with injuries, Brian Hoyer will give Meredith a lot of opportunity.
The Jags made significant upgrades to their secondary by bringing in Prince Amukamara and Jalen Ramsey, but this is still a spot that I like Meredith in. Ramsey has been very good this year and will likely shadow Alshon Jeffrey on the outside. That leaves an injury-hobbled Amukamara and porous Davon House to defend Meredith both in the slot and outside. This game has shootout potential, so expect the Bears to pass quite a bit.
Others I Like: Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., A.J. Green, Kelvin Benjamin, Allen Robinson, T.Y. Hilton, Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins, Marvin Jones, Julian Edelman, Jordan Matthews, Doug Baldwin, Willie Snead, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb, Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, Mike Wallace, Eddie Royal, Tavon Austin
DraftKings NFL Picks: Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($5,000): Kelce is finally turning into the elite player we thought he could be, and it means fantasy goodness for those that own him. He gets the 4th most usage out of the league’s tight ends, and is the Chiefs preferred red zone weapon with 8 targets there. Thanks to Andy Reid‘s dink-and-dunk scheme and Alex Smith’s inability to throw the deep ball, Kelce’s opportunity is consistent, and with the red zone targets, the upside is there too.
The Raiders have an elite cornerback duo in Sean Smith (former Chief) and David Amerson, so despite being relatively exploitable through the air this season, I wouldn’t bank on that being the case. However, if the wideouts are drawing tough matchups, Alex Smith is even more likely to just rely on Kelce, making him a great cash and GPP target at just $5,000.
Jimmy Graham ($4,900): Is the Jimmy Graham of old finally back? After last season’s disappointment with the Seahawks, it looks like they finally figured out how to use him most effectively; essentially a big slot receiver. He has 8 and 9 targets in his last two outings and has finished with at least 100 yards in both. He is also a big red zone target, so he has just as much upside as any tight end in the league right now.
Similar to the Raiders, the Falcons have two great cornerbacks in Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford. Greg Olsen and Coby Fleener have both gone absolutely bonkers against Atlanta this year, and if Coby Fleener can do it, there’s no doubt in my mind that Jimmy Graham can too. Play him in cash, and I don’t mind him in a stack with Russell Wilson for GPPs as well.
Others I Like: Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Dennis Pitta, Zach Ertz
DraftKings NFL Picks: Defense
Bills ($3,700): Colin Kaepernick is starting, which is a sign of desperate times for the San Francisco offense. This is an elite Bills defense that will get plenty of opportunities for big defensive plays because of the Niners’ pace and likely garbage time. Consider pairing him with LeSean McCoy, because if the defense is playing well, they should be ahead, and that means they’ll be pounding the clock out with Shady.
Texans ($2,900): The Colts have a good offense, but their strength (passing) is also the Texans strength on defense. They currently have the top ranked pass defense in the league, even without J.J. Watt. They do struggle to contain the run, but Frank Gore isn’t someone I’m scared of at this age. Andrew Luck is proven to be turnover-prone, so there is a lot of upside here. You can pair them with Will Fuller to try to get a double dip on a special teams touchdown.
Others I Like: Steelers, Titans, Rams
Best of luck in Week 6!