Golden State Warriors: Light years ahead

The Step Back has been born from the aesthetics and traditions of the Hardwood Paroxysm Basketball Network. In the past, Hardwood Paroxysm has produced a massive stand-alone season preview. This year, that preview effort has been rolled up into the launch of The Step Back. 

The Step Back’s writers and illustrators have prepared a hefty deep-dive into each team, built from multiple smaller sections. This year’s theme is television comedies and each section is named after some of our favorite sitcoms. For links to all 30 teams, as well as details about the focus of each section, check out our guide on how to read this preview.

Community

By Daniel Rowell (@danieljrowell)

The Golden State Warriors broke basketball — or, at least, the way most of us look at the sport. In 2016, they defied everyone’s expectations and won 73 regular season games, toppling a record that almost everyone expected to remain untouched in Chicago.

The Warriors came out to play. They won 24 straight games and forced everyone to recalibrate their predictions for the season. It may be hard to even think about a time before the Warriors were the 73-win Warriors, but for the start of 2015, the Cleveland Cavaliers were the favorites — a second year of chemistry and a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love gave the team a edge over the defending champions. And yet, two months into the season, it looked like the Warriors just were not going to lose a game.

Add in a Christmas Day victory over the Cavaliers, a blow out in Cleveland on MLK Day, and one of the most absurd turnarounds in Oklahoma City, and you can start to see how the Warriors became the “historically great” Warriors. ESPN added a specific 73-win tracking tab. We had think pieces on think pieces. Stephen Curry made over 400 three-pointers. HE was the first ever unanimous MVP. It was a record-setting regular season.

Basketball in 2016-17 is a strange world. We use “historically great team” at historically high levels. A 4-man lineup in Golden State hasn’t even played a game in the regular season and yet seems unsurmountable. And a group of Cavaliers fans (myself included) can’t seem to let go of the fact that the Warriors still somehow blew a 3-1 Finals lead. It was like LeBron James killed a demi-god in Oakland and now the entire NBA community is god-less world divided into fractions of people with 3-1 lead wristbands and “KD tho” t-shirts and Westbrook MVP bets and a list of 10 Eastern Conference teams that think they can be the second best team in the East.

But everyone accepts one thing to be true: The Warriors are going to be too good to lose.

That’s where the NBA may be broken. It’s stuck in superlative and this elevated perspective of record-setting, best-ever, but the season hasn’t even started. The 73-win storyline has skewed an entire sports league for the 2016-17 season, and everything is projected onto a tilt towards the Bay Area. The question is… are we right to think in the superlative? That this is going to be the best basketball team that ever played? Or is the NBA and the way we think about a team like the Warriors broken by a 73 regular season anomaly?

Then, imagine you are the Warriors. A collection of four/five players that blew 3-1 leads in the playoffs one way or the other. Most of them already accomplished the greatest regular season of all time and they all don’t care about 70 wins — just rings. The fans, the media, the rest of the league, they are all looking at you and waiting for the next 40-foot three-point shot. So what now? That is the Warriors in 2016-17, and it’ll be interesting to see if it’s broken or record-breaking.

Third Rock From The Sun

By Jeff Siegel (@jgsiegel)

Draymond Green is the engine that makes the Golden State Warriors go. Sure, there are sexier aspects of the team, from sharpshooter Stephen Curry to newcomer Kevin Durant, but Green has inspired Golden State’s back-to-back NBA Finals runs. Unfortunately, he may very well have cost them their second championship with a poorly timed kick to the groin of the greatest player in the world, but the Warriors will live with him stepping over the line. Both on the court and off, Green is the leader of the Warriors, no matter how many future and former MVPs are on the team.

What makes Green so valuable is that there isn’t anything on the floor he can’t do. He’ll pop out for an open jumper, crash into the lane for the offensive rebound, bound down the floor, switch out onto a point guard, then recover and block a center’s layup at the rim. His incredible versatility unlocks everything that the Warriors do on both ends — head coach Steve Kerr can throw Green onto the floor in almost any five-man unit and it will invariably succeed. He can score, he can create for others, and most critically, he knows when to do which. He’s the modern-day, better version of Lamar Odom, another role player on championship teams that valued his ability to do almost anything. He can guard one through five effectively, something that’s becoming more commonplace throughout the NBA thanks in part to his success and the success of the Warriors over the past two seasons.

And, of course, Green is the key to the Death Lineup that ravages opponents. His defensive versatility allows him to play as the center in those lineups while giving opposing teams a headache when the Warriors get the ball into their half-court offense. The Curry-Green pick-and-roll is particularly devastating with Green’s incredible improvements as a ball-handler and a passer in the last two seasons— a team who traps Curry to get the ball out of his hands can no longer bank on Green making a bad decision. True to form, Green added an above-average three-point shot last summer, making him even more deadly when he pops out of the pick-and-roll with Curry.

Green’s heavy involvement offensively the last two years will take a bit of a step back this season with the addition of Durant because Durant can do a lot of what Green does while remaining seven-feet tall and a much better shooter. Durant can take Green’s role in the offense rather easily; a pick-and-roll between Curry and Durant will have opposing coaches pulling their hair out all season.

Herein lies the biggest question mark for the Warriors heading into the season: Will Green be happy with being knocked down a peg in Golden State’s pecking order? Durant is going to eat into a lot of what Green does offensively, but he’s still going to have to bring it defensively in order for the Warriors to reach their ultimate goal. Is he willing to stand in the corner and make opportune cuts to the basket that may or may not pay off in a basket while Curry and Durant do their thing at the top of the key? Green will get his chances in the pick-and-roll with Curry and Durant, but it certainly won’t be as often as it has been the last two years.

Green has never been the absolute focus of the Warriors’ offense, but he finished last year averaging 53.3 touches per game in their half-court offense, more than primary ball-handlers Giannis Antetokounmpo and Paul George. How will he react to not having a steady diet of the ball, especially down the stretch of close games? We probably won’t know the answer to any of this until the Warriors are tested in the playoffs, but it’s something Kerr will have to monitor throughout the season.

If there’s a knock on the way Kerr has coached the last two seasons, it’s that he sometimes plays too many guys too many minutes when he should shorten the rotation. This won’t be a problem in Green’s case, but will he go out of his way to give Green a touch late in a critical Finals game when he should be going to strictly Curry-Durant sets? Will Green demand a touch in the final minutes if things aren’t going well?

Only time will tell.

Seinfeld

By Derek James (@DerekJamesNBA)

A team coming off of a 73-win season just added one of the best scorers in NBA history. That’s right. In addition to Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green, the Golden State Warriors added Kevin Durant to create a monster of a starting lineup. Rather, an even bigger monster of a starting lineup.

Who plays center? Does it really matter? When you have that much talent before Andre Iguodala even checks into the game, you can start pretty much anyone there. Call Erick Dampier. Adonal Foyle, or Andris Biedrins. It makes little difference. The team might be able to get by with drawing a random fan out of the stands for 12 minutes a game and still win 70 games.

The real answer, of course, is Zaza Pachulia. That’s the very same Zaza Pachulia who led the Western Conference All-Star voting for longer than anyone believed possible. While not quite an All-Star, he was still an efficient player who grabbed 9.4 rebounds per game. He may not be the low post intimidator that Andrew Bogut was, but Pachulia is easier to rely on from a health standpoint. At age 32, entering his 13th season, Pachulia is a nice get for the Warriors.

In general, you get the sense that the Warriors just need someone with six fouls. The team is stocked with big men like Anderson Varejao, Damion Jones, and JaVale McGee, who is presumably here to illustrate it doesn’t matter who plays center.

Having this many options to choose from means being able to preserve Green during the regular season. Steve Kerr can still toy with small ball lineups featuring Green but not having him frequently bang up against centers will go a long way.

And if none of these options work, they can go with the random fan in the stands idea.

Perfect Strangers

by Matt D’Anna (@hoop_nerd)

Ten Word Analysis: A video-game-level unfair combination of volume and precision.

TeamSPACE charts are based on mapped clusters of shot activity. These areas are affectionately called Hunting Grounds, because they are the areas on the court where a player hunts for shots — and successfully scores most often. TeamSPACE takes the Hunting Grounds of all five players in a lineup and puts them on the court together — because, you know, they have to share that physical space, and there is only one ball.

In the past, it was one color per player; which meant that blending colors represented overlapping spaces for shot activity. But this time around, these are not your ordinary TeamSPACE shot maps. Each lineup is analyzed in the aggregate — one color! — and that unit is compared that unit to the rest of the league. So you will see a persistent red layer on every chart, highlighting the league’s Hunting Grounds from last season. The most prolific locations should come as no surprise: the paint, the corners, most of the top of the arc, and a couple of dabs at the foul line and top of the key.

So…how were these lineups chosen for each team? In the past, it’s been about projecting the starting lineup, estimating the most used lineup, or even designing the “most favoritest” lineup. This year? It’s the these charts represent the “most interestingly feasible” lineups….what? That’s a loaded phrase, so let’s unpack it a bit.

The goal is to identify the collection of five players on a team that could potentially play together, and if they did, the offensive results could be glorious. Ideally these lineups aren’t too far-fetched, but also slightly off-kilter and confusing to an opposing defense. While this type of analysis is not conducive for assessing defense, somewhat reasonable decisions are attempted to be made. So while it’s tempting to just put all the best shooters together…how realistic is it (outside of Houston, at least)? And, full disclosure: I favor some stretch in my lineups. It not only provides plenty of high-octane potential, but getting stretchy is also on par with current league-wide trends.

Each TeamSPACE chart has a couple of other sitcom-related features:

Family Matters: You’ll notice a series of Jaleel White’s across half court. Each lineup is scored on a scale of 0-7 Steve Urkels for how well it matches league-wide trends. Remember, there’s seven league Hunting Grounds (right corner three; at the rim; left corner three; foul line/top of the key; right wing; middle 3pt; left wing). A lineup gains points for matching each area; it loses points for messy excess shot activity.

Odd Couple: “Most interestingly feasible” is obviously debatable, so in order to account for some of those decisions, you’ll see Oscar and Felix on each chart. Often, there are players that are in the lineup…and maybe/probably they should not be. They get the Oscar label. And, there are those players that are out of the lineup…and maybe/probably should be included. They are the Felix for their team.

And briefly, a word about data. These strange visual displays are based on last season’s shot data, weighted by made buckets — so rookies and season-long injuries are sadly excluded. This analysis is nothing without the help of Darryl Blackport, and the research materials available at Basketball-Reference and NBA.com. Further, these charts feature some of the best logo re-designs I could curate from the ol’ Information Superhighway, including Dribbble.com and Pinterest. I made none of the logos; I merely selected some of my favorites. Enjoy!

Everybody Loves Raymond

By Matt Cianfrone (@Matt_Cianfrone)

With one signing this summer, the Golden State Warriors made the NBA a better place. Sure, it made life harder for any other NBA team trying to win a title. So hard, in fact, that many fans got really mad about it online. On the other hand, for those willing to put up with the fact that the Warriors are going to win quite a few NBA titles, the signing made them one of — if not the most — fun NBA team of all time.

That is right, JaVale McGee is now a member of the Warriors in a marriage that is sure to bring us just about everything would could ever ask for. At its peak, it provides beautiful brilliance as the ball whips around the perimeter and finds the hands of an open man. Or so you thought.

In fact, with the addition of McGee, the Warriors peak has been raised to a level beyond what anyone thought was possible in basketball. Instead of the ball ending up in the hands of an open shooter this season, it will find the hands of McGee. And that is when his unique brand of brilliance happens.

See, the fun thing about McGee is you never have any idea what the result will be when he gets involved in a play. When he plays defense, that result could be a volleyball spike block. Or it could be a goaltend so bad that even a first grader knew that it was a dumb play. Honestly, McGee dunking home an opponent’s shot as he tries to grab a rebound isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

Offensively, McGee is even more unpredictable. At his best he is a rim-running force, willing to roll down the lane and slam down a ton of lobs. Considering his new team is full of good passers, those lobs should be plentiful. At his worst (or perhaps best, I’m not sure) McGee is able to destroy his team’s own offensive possession all by himself like when he tried to run a fast break, fell down, and threw a lob over the backboard from halfcourt.

Really it is a testament to McGee that the fact that he once rode a Segway through a McDonald’s drive-through or that he started a #Juglife movement that morphed into a company and neither have been mentioned until now. Remove his on court play and behavior, and you have a person who genuinely cares about his fans and loves to show it. In Denver, he used to buy people lunch fairly often. His charity softball game raised money to send to countries without easy access to clean water. And his mom yells at him when he does stupid things. And he has a tattoo of a moustache on his finger that he holds up to his lip after big plays.

So yeah, JaVale McGee is the most likeable player on the Warriors. And it isn’t close.

Boy Meets World

By Brandon Jefferson (@pengriffey_jr)

Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson aren’t necessarily old (all four are between 26 and 28), but for the purpose of this post they will not be mentioned any more going forward. With their offseason moves costing them depth — and veterans — the Golden State Warriors are going to have to rely more on younger players this season than their past two years.

Replacing the contributions of Harrison Barnes (LOL, JK), Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli, Marreese Speights, and Leandro Barbosa are going to fall on the likes of players that have not been asked to do more than cheer from the bench previously.

Kevon Looney and Damian Jones are both wildcards for this team at the moment. Looney is coming off two hip surgeries, one to each hip, and looks poised to finally build off his rebounding and defensive potential he showed sporadically during his lone season at UCLA. Jones is in a similar situation to what Looney was this time last year. Jones had to undergo surgery in mid-June after tearing a pectoral muscle in his pre-draft workout with the Orlando Magic earlier the same month. Both Looney (7-1 wingspan) and Jones (7-3.75 wingspan) offer length to replace the multiple big men that the Warriors lost this summer. If both are able to come back healthy, the Warriors would be on track to rebuild their frontcourt depth quickly.

Ian Clark is the next man up after Barbosa left the Bay Area for Phoenix as a free agent. The Brazilian Blur offered up a change-of-pace — if such a thing exists for a team that was as great in transition as Golden State last year — from The Splash Brothers off the bench. Clark isn’t the fastest of players, but he is a steady guard that is a threat from behind the arc. For his career, Clark has knocked down 35.2 percent of his 145 triples. Clark doesn’t have to be anything more than solid and reliable for this version of the Warriors team. Anything extra is icing on top of the lightyears-ahead-cake Joe Lacob keeps stashed in his office at the Oakland Convention Center.

Then there’s Patrick McCaw. The former UNLV product slipped to the second round in this year’s NBA Draft, but landed in the perfect situation with the Warriors. Simply based off looks, McCaw could be Shaun Livingston’s clone. McCaw is listed as 6-7 and 185 pounds. Livingston checks in at 6-7 and 192 pounds. Livingston plays more like a pass-first point guard whereas McCaw is a do-it-all wing. The biggest difference between the two comes on the defensive end. Livingston has the size and positional strength to handle bigger opponents and the length to bother most guards. McCaw has quick feet and hands and is capable of pressuring ball handlers the length of the floor. McCaw is yet to show that he possesses the strength necessary to battle in the paint with small forwards and small-ball fours.

McCaw is the most promising prospect that Golden State currently has. If the play of Livingston or Andre Iguodala tapers off in the near future — or they prove too pricey too keep — McCaw is going to be looked at to replace what they bring.