Manny Pacquiao vs Jessie Vargas: 5 reasons to watch

4) The significance of a Vargas upset should not be discounted

The great fear when it comes to Manny Pacquiao-Jessie Vargas is that the fight limps over the finish line as a wide unanimous decision for Pacquiao in a contest where Vargas is unable to produce any momentum-swinging moments. While this is possible, there’s a case to be made that one of multiple alternatives happens instead.

A Vargas upset is almost impossible to fathom, and that’s intriguing. Boxing, unlike any other sport, is a minefield of shocking results, and some will be compelled to watch simply on the off chance that Vargas lands a right hand like he did against Timothy Bradley Jr. and Sadam Ali. But this, as a standalone justification to buy the fight, isn’t good enough.

For Jessie Vargas, this is his moment, and he may never get another one of this magnitude. Because of this reality, two compelling outcomes are likely: either Vargas exceeds expectations (which would make for a surprisingly competitive fight), or he gets outgunned and fans witness a Pacquiao circa 2009 explosion. Encouragingly, there seems to be little middle ground.

The problem, however, is that there’s no way to guarantee any of these potential outcomes. If the fight ends up like, say, Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Victor Ortiz, fans will feel robbed. If it devolves into a Pacquiao-Joshua Clottey sequel, they will correctly be outraged. But based on Vargas’ last two fights, there’s just enough evidence for cautious optimism.