Prospect Calibration: Joel Embiid, Clint Capela, and others finding a role

As a brief introduction, there are multiple ways to assess and convey prospect analysis. There are rookie power rankings, the “rookie ladder”, top players under-23, and stock up/stock down formats. I find all of these too divisive and frankly absurd at this current juncture of the season, with such a limited sample. My goal here every week is to convey to you what I see from prospects 23-or-younger on film, which I’ll do tracking down clips and statistics to corroborate my in-game notes

The intention is for this to read as an in-depth skill breakdown and kind of an observation overview. If you’d like to see a specific player covered, let me know at @colezwicker.

Joel Embiid’s versatile offensive game

I could write an entire series on Joel Embiid’s game (which I probably wont be able to resist doing in the near future), so limiting this entry is a trying practice. Embiid is no mere mortal. He’s half cyborg, half 250 pound dancing bear. People this big shouldn’t be able to do things like this:

While defense is the foundational necessity for any 5, and Embiid brings that in spades, it’s his offensive versatility that deserves to be highlighted here. He can beat you in every phase of the game offensively, an ability unmatched at his position, unless your name is Lord Karl Anthony-Towns.

He can beat you in the post with plus footwork and side-to-side agility. While he doesn’t finish here, he leaves one of the best defenders in basketball in his wake:

He can beat you on pick-and-pops, showing fluid footwork and a smooth release extending beyond the three-point line:

He can beat you on pick-and-roll dives as a lob-catcher, rendering him a dual threat in the pick-and-roll:

He can beat you in the face up game, showing a fluid handle and ability to shoot off the dribble with sound footwork:

And again (oh, that footwork):

Basically, Embiid has the total package of offensive skill, making him virtually impossible to scheme for as he can win in every way. He’s a unicorn stretch 5 who can also attack closeouts off the bounce like we saw in the first clip. He can post, he’s a dual pick-and-roll threat, and he has a face-up playmaking game. He has quickly emerged as the two-way playmaking 5 prototype alongside Towns.

Read More: Justise Winslow, Aaron Gordon, and role optimization

Sporting an insane 37 percent usage rate in his minutes-capped role, second only to Russell Westbrook, Embiid is using a ridiculous amount of possessions, and doing so efficiently with a 23 PER. The one black mark in his game right now is his lack of passing acumen, and he notably hasn’t handled double teams well. But he showed flashes of plus vision at Kansas, and is starting to round into form with his creation for others:

JoJo is a monster, and he’s here to steal your soul — as well as the souls of various Philadelphia beat writers who doubted him.

Clint Capela’s spread pick-and-roll lob catching

Houston’s spread pick-and-roll attack is led by James Harden’s playmaking sorcery and is one of the most simple, yet elite offenses in the league — good for the fourth most efficient offense through five games. The secret sauce behind their success (outside of Harden) is less big man post-ups and more pick-and-rolls. Last year, Dwight Howard finished 297 possessions in the post, 14th most in the league, per NBA.com’s play type statistics. Howard’s replacement this year, Clint Capela, has registered only one possession finished in the post through the four games cataloged, an enormous divergence from last year.

Capela is a mobile pogo-stick who excels as a pick-and-roll dive man lob catcher, making him a hand-in-glove fit with D’Antoni’s offensive scheme and Harden’s creation. His ability to finish around the rim in this manner makes Houston’s offense an unguardable nightmare. If perimeter defenders suck in to prevent Capela’s lob-catching, the shooters make them pay, and if the perimeter defenders stay close to the shooters, Capela has free reign around the basket with a spaced floor.

This 1/5 pick-and-roll with Harden and Capela on one side of the floor and three shooters on the weak-side is entirely unfair:

This action essentially forces a two-man game defensively and puts Harden in a 2-on-1 advantage; and Harden in any kind of advantage situation is death for defenses. It’s poor defense from Derrick Rose who should come over and help off K.J. McDaniels, but Capela is rolling on the opposite side and by the time Rose turns his head it might be too late.

This next clip is a more conventional set, a double-high action that most teams run. Carmelo Anthony pushes the screen staying attached to Anderson as a shooting threat, while Joakim Noah takes a deep drop zoning up against Capela knowing he’s not a pop threat. The problem is if Rose doesn’t get around the pick and wall off Harden, the latter is in another 2-on-1 situation, and alas, that’s exactly what happens:

Capela’s ability to finish lobs quickly above the rim instead of being a minus leaper and having to gather is crucial. The Rockets traded volume shooting and post-ups to appease a star for actual real spacing and more pick-and-rolls this season. While Harden should garner the majority of the praise, Capela is a key part of the equation.

TJ Warren’s scoring wizardry 

I’m just going to come out and say it — TJ Warren is the weirdest player in the league right now. He’s an average athlete in terms of speed, burst, and vertical explosiveness, and isn’t a plus outside shooter. Yet, he still gets buckets because his touch is magnetic around the basket and he’s an ace off-balance midrange scorer.

Warren reminds me a little of Antawn Jamison, as he relies on unorthodox timing to create scoring opportunities because he lacks the athleticism to do so.

This pin-down curl is a perfect way to use Warren’s skill-set, as he converts an off-balance runner that I don’t think Adams expects him to attempt:

Warren shoots without gathering, and thus gets his shot off cleanly while avoiding the need to elevate over the defender.

Warren is also a master at floaters and flip shots, armed with that magnetic touch:

And again:

The touch he shows here on the move is just absurd:

Some players win with skill. Others win with athleticism. Warren wins being unique and unorthodox. He’s not going to create anything for others at this stage, but with 3 of 5 games scoring 26 points or more thus far this season, his scoring prowess is hard to ignore.

Julius Randle’s switching ability  

Randle’s overall defense is still very much a work in progress. He struggles with positioning and on rotations where he has to think quickly on the move. He also has alligator arms so he’s not going to provide high-level rim protection.

That being said, one facet has emerged in positive fashion — Randle’s ability to stick with perimeter players on switches. Randle quietly has plus lateral agility for his size, when he sits down in an athletic stance, allowing him to stay close to dynamic handlers on switches. This play against Harden on the switch is no joke:

We saw it again in the Atlanta game against lightning quick, dribble-drive dynamo Dennis Schroder:

It’s difficult to improve instinctively, which is where I think Randle struggles most on the defensive end, but in overt switching situations Randle has shown he can provide versatility guarding the perimeter; an immensely valuable skill.

Buddy Hield’s inconsistency 

Hield’s first five games have been mostly a turbulent experience. He’s 5-of-21 shooting threes, and has five assists to nine turnovers, per Basketball-Reference. His defense has come and gone, with unsightly gaps like this largely overshadowing the good moments:

Hield is embodying my aversion to one-skill shooters, especially ones who don’t thrive shooting off screens at high speeds — if they aren’t making shots how are they impacting the game? Hield showed playmaking flashes in preseason, but he’s not a high-usage creator for others or himself. He’s also a bad bet to ever be a plus defender, lacking the elite athleticism to defend at the point of attack and the size to defend taller primary-scoring wings.

Hield did get his bearings a little bit in the hellfire game against Memphis — which only the truly insane league pass fanatics watched — making four threes and showing good relocation instincts like this:

Hopefully he can build on Wednesday’s game.

Kristaps Porzingis’ usage and shoddy perimeter defense

Listen, I’m very much still here for the Porzingis experience. I feel for his predicament, being 24th in the league in usage for 4s, playing largely off-ball next to the likes of on-ball dominant perimeter players like Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. He’s basically the premiere complimentary building block you can have on a team — a two-way unicorn big.

All that being said, Porzingis’ perimeter defense deserves some criticism for the Knicks’ ghastly 28th-ranked defense out of the gate, considering his sterling reputation on that side. Wednesday’s game against Houston brought to the forefront, in emphatic fashion, the communication and positioning issues plaguing New York and Porzingis.

Here, Porzingis’ man is Ryan Anderson, but because Capela sags behind this early offense drag action, there is some confusion between Joakim Noah (Capela’s man) and Porzingis. The result is Porzingis ends up getting up way too far on Anderson, where both Noah and Porzingis are guarding the same man, parting the sea for Harden to get to the cup:

You can blame Noah in part there for a veteran not communicating clearly, but that looks like Porzingis’ bad. Another Porzingis perimeter defense gaffe occurs in this ICE scheme. Lee is clearly in ICE forcing Harden to the sideline. Porzingis flat out looks lost in what he’s supposed to do. Noah is already sagging back to contain penetration, and the weak side help is there. Porzingis’ first job is to get back quickly to Anderson on the pop, which he shows no awareness or immediate urgency to do:

There are numerous other examples to illuminate Porzingis’ lackluster perimeter defense and Hornaceck seems especially animated with Porzingis in particular. He has the mobility and tools to defend out there, but the results have been poor over this small sample.

Kris Dunn’s defensive instincts 

If you had Kris Dunn in your top-10 at draft time like most did, I hope it was for defensive reasons. Dunn’s offense is very much a question-mark, and I’m very skeptical of his combination of shooting struggles, non-outlier athleticism and spotty decision-making. But the defensive tools and instincts are there in rare fashion.

This play encompasses the full Kris Dunn experience: he makes the wrong read and a bad pass in transition resulting in a turnover, but tracks the play down and anticipates the pass for a steal:

Dunn flat out has freaky defensive instincts as shown in the following clip on the dig down:

He times this perfectly, helping off Baldwin in the corner and ripping the ball clean from Troy Williams on the move. Dunn looks like a free safety in the way he anticipates plays and causes turnovers. Five steals in his first career start is not an accident.

We’re all familiar with Dunn’s perimeter defensive agility and athleticism, and when paired with plus size and advanced frame he has the total package to defend lead guards:

Simply put, Dunn can be the very best point of attack defender in basketball, and under Thibs his defense will be unleashed.

Davis Bertans’ silky jumper

Filling the Matt Bonner reserve stretch role, the 23-year-old Latvian is off to a commendable start. At 6-foot-10, Bertans has one of the prettiest jump shots in the league and can shoot over basically any closeout:

His release is quick, mechanically sound, and the ball barely hits the rim, which aesthetically is one of the NBA’s hidden treasures:

He also flashes the ability to shoot off the dribble:

Bertans might be a specialist, and I obviously don’t expect him to keep up his 5-of-9 from 3 pace, but he can really shoot it.

Deyonta Davis exists

I just want to alert everyone to the fact Deyonta Davis is a human who exists on this planet and in the game of basketball. After inexplicably falling to No. 31 in the draft and having not played in the offseason due to injury, most have probably forgotten that this is a talented 5 man with legitimate upside. I had him as the top ranked-5 in the draft because of his combination of athleticism, lob-catching prowess, shooting flashes, and his two-level defensive upside.

Davis actually got legitimate minutes against the Wolves with Gasol and other starters resting, and he didn’t disappoint, putting up a 17-6-2 line on 7-of-8 from the floor. All of his makes came around the basket, but his leaping ability and catch radius was evident:

He also had an impressive catch on a low pass and finish through contact:

Here’s hoping he can carve out a consistent role as Memphis’ backup center.

Dante Exum’s flashes

Speaking of people existing, it’s Dante Exum, the mysterious and forgotten 21-year-old who no one is quite sure what to do with. Exum’s combination of size, speed and athleticism is rare for a lead guard. He’s flashed elite defensive ability at the point of attack with switchability to cover three positions most of the time.

Exum is currently playing mostly an off-ball reserve role with Shelvin Mack manning primary handling duties for Utah in second units, but in typical Exum fashion, the mouth-watering flashes are there:

Here, Exum totally freezes Dewayne Dedmon with a hesitation move in pick-and-roll, and has the burst to blow by him for the and-1 finish.

His athleticism and shiftiness also shines through, like in this instance on an in and out dribble blow by with Wes Johnson now the victim:

Defensively, Exum can change direction in elite fashion being a plus stop/start athlete, and while he gets run through here by Crawford, the raw athleticism stands out:

His length, especially when utilized against smaller perimeter players, can look overwhelming at times:

I want to see Exum run more lead guard and not just stand in the corner on most sets. He has playmaking ability, and is a capable pick and roll playmaker as seen by this nice pocket pass to Derrick Favors:

In such a limited role with a minuscule 15.2 usage rate, we don’t know yet what will transpire if Exum is handed the reigns to an offense more consistently. All I know is I want to find out.