1) Control the center of the ring
In this match-up, Sergey Kovalev is the more naturally aggressive fighter — the one more likely to box off his front foot. Andre Ward, of course, is generally seen as the better counter puncher and defensive fighter. So, if conventional wisdom holds true, Ward needs to avoid giving up close rounds by failing to match Kovalev’s aggression and initiative.
Ring geography will be pivotal in this regard. If Ward is regularly forced to retreat — or, even worse, if Kovalev is able to consistently corner him — an even round in terms of punches landed and output will be lost. Close fights tend to favor those who are more offensively inclined, which is why Ward needs to be the one bossing Kovalev around the ring.
It’s unlikely that Andre Ward will be able to force Kovalev onto his back foot the way fans are accustomed to seeing the “Krusher” impose his will on generally hapless opponents. This reality, however, can be overcome if Ward is able to stand his ground via an amalgamation of the various keys to victory that have already been mentioned.
A dynamic jab, taking the fight to the inside, negating Kovalev’s right hand and lateral movement will all allow Ward to control the center of the ring because they will prevent him from getting trapped and cornered. Instead of circling, Ward needs to be shifting, sidestepping and, most importantly, turning Kovalev. Consider it the difference between a 360° and 180° turn; the former would be the equivalent of Ward strafing in a wide circle, resulting in Kovalev eventually cutting him off or Ward ending up exactly where he started but with less room to maneuver, whereas the latter is Ward altering the terms and geography of engagement, creating empty space behind him that can be used to set traps or retreat to if necessary.
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Ultimately, the greatest variable at play in Kovalev-Ward may be how well Ward handles Kovalev’s power. Indeed, Ward will have to fight the “perfect fight” in order to win, but, at his best, he’s capable of producing that kind of clinical performance. That said, Ward’s margin of error is narrow because of Kovalev’s power, and that’s why this fight is so fascinating. To emerge victorious, every ounce of Ward’s savvy, skills and concentration will be extended to their breaking points. And because of that, the question becomes: Will Andre Ward crack?