NBA FanDuel Daily Picks and Pivots – November 28
Welcome to the NBA FanDuel edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best NBA FanDuel lineup!
The purpose of this NBA FanDuel Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 30 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 370.8 a night which means we have needed 6.18x value to win big!
Monday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
NBA FanDuel – Top Point Guard Picks
Stephen Curry ($9,400) With Russell Westbrook priced over $12k now on FanDuel, he is officially in a price territory where we are forced to consider the fade. For nearly $3,000 less you can lock in Stephen Curry who gets a match-up against an Atlanta team that is giving up the 5th most points to opposing PG’s.
With Draymond Green likely out on Monday, the Warriors starters should all see an uptick in usage and Curry has eclipsed 50+ FanDuel points in 2 of his last three games. The discount from Westbrook is material enough that I am happy to target the 50+ point upside and allocate the $3k salary savings towards other positions on my roster.
Derrick Rose ($6,100) The Knicks and Thunder have one of the highest team totals on the night and with a 1 point spread in Vegas, this is a game we should look to target aggressively. For as incredible as Westbrook is on the offensive end he is quite generous on the defensive end as the Thunder have allowed the third most points to opposing point guards.
Rose is coming off one of his best games of the season when he racked up 18 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists for 46.6 FanDuel points and finds himself in one of the best match-ups on the board! The Knicks are projected to score four more points than their season average and see the second highest pace increase of any team on Monday night’s slate!
NBA FanDuel – Top Shooting Guards
Victor Oladipo ($6,300) Heading back to the NY-OKC game, if we are looking to fade Westbrook, the contingency play here is to lock in Victor Oladipo at SG. The Knicks have been brutal all year against opposing SG’s as they rank 29th in the NBA in DvP and Oladipo should be able to further exploit this match-up against New York.
Oladipo has started to find his groove in the OKC offense and his price as risen as a result of three straight 30 FD points efforts. A 30 point floor is realistic in this spot but the match-up, high total and close spread make this an ideal spot for Oladipo in GPP’s as he could flirt with another 50 burger as he did on Friday!
Bradley Beal ($6,300) The Wizards have the second highest team total on the slate as of now(we are still waiting on a few lines) and are expected to score 6.4 points more than their season average which is the highest mark of any team on this slate.
The Kings present one of the most favorable DvP match-ups to opposing SG’s as they rank 25th in the NBA which sets up nicely for Beal to continue his recent high level of production. Beal has put up 43+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games and should be primed for another big outing in this one against a Kings team that has failed to slow down SG’s all season!
NBA FanDuel – Top Small Forward Picks
Carmelo Anthony ($7,900) With the high team total and close spread, I am looking to employ a mini-game stack on the OKC-NY game as the price points are reasonable and the usage among the key players is relatively established.
Melo has a 29% true usage rate which is the highest among all SF’s on this slate and looking over the DvP ratings the best spots to attack OKC are at PG/SF so I will look to employ a Rose/Melo mini-stack here to maximize my exposure in one of the highest scoring/highest paced games of the night!
DeMarre Carroll ($4,200) As of now the Raptors check in with the highest team total (113) on the board but also have a 14 point spread against the Sixers so the blow out risk here is very real! Carroll is a great way to get cheap exposure to the Raptors as we can lock in 26-28 minutes of action against a team that is 28th in the NBA in DvP to opposing SF’s.
If you are looking for a GPP pivot in the same price range, Robert Covington ($4,400) is one of my favorite boom or bust plays each night and his price sits at a point where we have to consider him in large field GPP’s. When Covington is on he is guaranteed to get major minutes for the Sixers as evidenced by his 40 minute, 40 FD point outing against Memphis last week but his volatility makes him best suited for GPP play!
NBA FanDuel – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Frank Kaminsky ($4,700) While Marvin Williams remains out with a knee injury, Frank the Tank will continue to get run as the starting PF for the Hornets and for as long as he is under $5k, he is a great value play in DFS.
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Kaminsky has returned 5x value at this price point in 7 straight so he is essentially a must play in cash games and helps you build a solid foundation in GPP’s while saving you salary to pay up for the slates biggest stars.
Markieff Morris ($4,700) The Wizards are going to be one of my favorite spots to target value on this slate as their match-up against the Kings on the tail end of a back to back should yield major fantasy points.
The Kings are 26th in the NBA in DvP to opposing PF’s and similar to my recommendation of Covington, Morris has 40+ FanDuel point upside for a bargain price. He is a GPP flier only but he is locked in as a starter, gets one of the best DvP match-ups and the Wizards are projected for the second highest point total on the board!
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000) Boogie just continues to deliver for DFS owners and with the price at only $10k, he remains one of the best bargain superstars in FanDuel. Cousins has put up at least 50+ FD points in 6 of his last 7 sevens and included two 60 FD point games for good measure.
Cousins has a massive 35.5% true usage rate which is the highest of any Center on the board and I expect Boogie to be overlooked on the second night of a back to back for the Kings especially with Westbrook/Warriors on the slate. Lock in Boogie again tonight for another 50 burger tonight!
Best of luck on Monday Night in NBA FanDuel! Keep an eye out on Fantasy CPR Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster advice! Good Luck!