Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State preview, point spread, prediction

The Big 12 will come down to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for the second straight year. Can the Cowboys get revenge or will the Sooners dominate again?

Even though the Big 12 decided not to expand, wholesale changes are coming. Perhaps the biggest one is that there will be a title game again starting next year. Even though Oklahoma was good enough to make the playoff last year without it, they recognize the importance of that 13th game. And while the Sooners are a Top 4 team based on the eye test, their early losses to Ohio State and Houston have put them behind the eight-ball in terms of getting back to the Playoff.

Nevertheless, a win over Oklahoma State would be significant for a number of reasons. Not only would it give the Sooners their second straight conference title, they would be the first team to finish the Big 12 season with a perfect record. It would also reassert their dominance over the Cowboys. Coming into this season, Oklahoma has won 11 of their last 13 meetings over Oklahoma State, while last year’s 58-23 pounding is probably still fresh in the minds of both fans.

Individually, there’s a lot at stake for the Sooners. Two weeks ago, it seemed unthinkable that anyone could beat out Lamar Jackson for the Heisman Trophy. But after Houston shut him down, and he turned it over four times to Kentucky, it may have opened the door.

One of the emerging candidates for the trophy is Dede Westbrook, who has 16 touchdowns on the year and 19.3 yards per catch. A dominant performance in Bedlam to clinch the Big 12 title would certainly make the Heisman voters think twice about who they should give the trophy to.

This game means a lot to Oklahoma State as well. Ever since an early loss to Baylor, they have rattled off a seven-game winning streak. Their win over West Virginia looked great at the time, but the Sooners upstaged them when they won by a larger margin on the road. And while Baker Mayfield is getting all the praise, Mason Rudolph has been just as sharp. He’s got 30 touchdowns to four interceptions, and has powered the Cowboys’ dynamic offense.

A win for Oklahoma State would be massive as far as ending Oklahoma’s recent, and historic dominance in the Bedlam Series. Even though the Sooners and Cowboys are ranked nine and 10 by the Playoff Committee, respectively, the Cowboys might have a better shot at the Top 4 than the Sooners.

A win would give Oklahoma State their second Top 10 win of the season, while the Committee has already acknowledged their controversial loss to Central Michigan. If that’s to be believed, the Cowboys are really a one-loss team with Baylor being their only blemish. Then again, the Bears’ five-game losing streak hasn’t done the Cowboys any favors. And given the teams that are in front of them, a lot would have to go their way.

Point spread

The early outlook for this game is unfavorable for the Cowboys. Odds Shark lists the opening line at -14 for Oklahoma. They’ve slipped a bit, but they’re still an 11 or 12-point favorite across the board. That, plus all the media outlets picking an Oklahoma win, should serve as motivation for Oklahoma State.

Prediction

But given what we’ve seen from the Sooners in the Big 12, that line is justified. There’s been nothing to suggest that anyone in their conference can stop them. Not to mention the way they blew them out in Stillwater last year is tough to forget.

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These are the two best offenses in the Big 12, and because nobody likes to play defense there, expect this to be very high-scoring. I’ve got Oklahoma winning this one 49-27, but their head-to-head loss to non-conference champion Ohio State will ultimately keep them out of the College Football Playoff.