Statistical sustainability: Which crazy numbers will hold?

With more than 20 percent of the season in the books, it’s relatively safe to say we are past the point of hot starts when looking at player statistics. Yet when we look at the league leaders, or delve deeper into the advanced metrics, eye-popping numbers are still present. The NBA’s summer reshuffle made some of the stats somewhat foreseeable, while other player performance jumps came out of nowhere.

So right about now, the point in the season when Russell Westbrook is averaging a triple double, seems like a better time than any to ask the question regarding many an inflated stat – is it sustainable?

A stat pragmatist would argue that anything historically exceptional is bound to regress, but it doesn’t always work that way in the NBA. This isn’t baseball, where a player hitting .400 in May is bound to see his average drop anywhere from 60 to 100 points by season’s end. While players may make a leap from one given season to the next, the statistical profile they exhibit in their first 20 games or so is often a solid indication of how they will perform on the season as a whole.

That’s not to say some players aren’t bound to see their stats dip, absent of injury or team context, but other numbers are likely here to stay. Here are some of the more remarkable individual stats of the early NBA season and the evidence/arguments for their season-long sustainability.

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DeMar DeRozan’s scoring

Have the regression police already come a-knocking for the league’s most improbable top-3 scorer? After scoring at least 30 points in 10 of his first 12 games, DeRozan has been held under that number in five straight outings. Through 17 games he is still averaging close to 30 (29.2 points per game), but DeRozan’s absurd scoring streak was bound to fall back to earth; he was making an unsustainable amount of contested mid-range jumpers as the focal part of the Toronto Raptors’ offense.

The question now is where will DeRozan finish in scoring when all is said and done. He has been no slouch on the year-end leaderboard in recent years — tying for eighth last season, finishing 14th in 2014-15 and tying for ninth in 2013-14. Is this the year he cracks the top 5? It seems like an achievement no one could have predicted even with DeRozan’s steady year-to-year improvement, which is mainly attributed to him filling out his 6-7 frame. A bulked up, core-strengthened DeRozan has allowed him to ratchet up his free throw attempts to nearly 10 per game this season and assert himself to finish stronger with both his post-ups and drives.

The biggest knock against DeRozan when assessing his profile as an elite scorer is 3-point shooting. It’s an argument that needs to be put to bed. While players like Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard boost their scoring average with 3-point heavy outings, DeRozan has a consistent approach to scoring aided by the league’s third best usage rate (35.1), behind only Russell Westbrook (40.7) and DeMarcus Cousins (36.8). That’s more than five percent higher than his usage rate last season and as good a reason for his scoring jolt, as is his increased 48.1 field goal percentage.

While DeRozan may regress a few more points in shooting percentage he can also stay in his current range, which will greatly help his scoring average remain in the high 20s. With Durant and Curry limiting each others’ upside, DeRozan may very well finish top-5 if his main competition is Damian Lillard, who is prone to bouts of inconsistency. DeRozan is well on his way to a career best in scoring, and something in the range of 25-26 seems like a safe floor for a player dead set on proving his doubters wrong every season.

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James Harden’s assists per game

While DeRozan’s ascension as a scorer was one of the more unexpected stat storylines of the early season, Harden’s emergence in the assist department was inevitable. Still, following Mike D’Antoni’s anointing of Harden as the “official” starting point guard this preseason, some wondered just how much it would affect his passing production. No stranger to bringing the ball up on offense, Harden averaged 7.5 assists per game as the team’s starting two guard last season, good for sixth best in the league.

Harden also likes to shoot the ball — a lot. He was first in total field goal attempts last season and it was hard to predict whether bestowing him with the “title” of starting point guard would significantly reduce his shot attempts. And through his first 18 games, it has. Harden is only eighth in field goals attempted per game this season and his new (mildly) socialist style of play is mainly attributed to a reduction in clock-killing isolation plays. Harden is keeping all of the good parts of his offensive game (driving to the basket, getting to the line, taking open 3s) and trimming the unnecessary fat. Having a wealth of shooters around him is offering all the right incentives.

D’Antoni projected that Harden would double his assist average this season, and so far he’s not that far off. Harden leads the league with 12.2 assists per game this season, ahead of Westbrook’s 11.3 — the only two players averaging double figures. The truth is Harden always had potential to dominate the category; he finished second to only Tyreke Evans in assist percentage last season (35.4) among non-point guards. With less isolation and a greater focus on feeding his new marksmen, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson, Harden has become an elite point guard overnight, running D’Antoni’s offense to perfection.

Arguably the biggest factor of Harden’s assist surge has been the nearly unstoppable pick-and-roll game with Clint Capela. The two hook up in transition as well, but Capela’s deer-like ability as a roll man has led to many open dunks on beautiful bounce passes from Harden. As such, Capela is second in the league in field goal percentage (62.9) and has been especially effective in his past eight games, averaging over 15 ppoints per game. If Harden can maintain his current pace, he will become the first player to average 12 assists per game since John Stockton in 1994-95. Considering all of the factors above, it’s an accolade that is clearly in play.

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Kevin Durant’s field goal percentage

With the video game numbers being put up by Westbrook and Harden on a nightly basis, it’s easy to overlook just how incredible Durant has been during his first 18 games with the Golden State Warriors. No longer forced into dreaded isolation hand-offs with Westbrook and playing in unimaginative sets, Durant is simply floating through the flow of the Golden State offense this season, occasionally taking over as alpha when the court lineup dictates that he should. The early returns have been overwhelmingly efficient.

Durant, a career 48.6 percent shooter, is enjoying career highs across the board this season in basically every shooting metric. He is making 44.2 percent of 3s, while sporting an obscene 68.1 true shooting percentage and 30.83 PER. Sometimes though, the most archaic stat is all you need to look at; Durant is averaging a very un-wing like 57 percent from the field. Take a look at the league’s top ten in field goal percentage and it’s a row of centers with one small forward sticking out like a sore thumb. Durant is in uncharted territory for an elite scorer of his ilk.

Durant is also third in two-point field goal percentage, a mark that put him in the same company as DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gobert and Clint Capela, players who get almost all their baskets from open dunks. It doesn’t take delving into a bunch of comprehensive and isolated scoring stats to determine how deadly accurate the self-proclaimed Easy Money Sniper has been this season. All one has to do is watch Warriors games to see how truly unfair Durant is playing in what was already the league’s best offense from a historic perspective.

Can Durant maintain such remarkable shooting numbers? Nothing so far has suggested he can’t keep this pace up for an entire season; Durant has failed to shoot 50 percent or better in just four of 18 games so far. In three of those games he was one miss off of 50 percent. In the fourth game he shot 3-9, in what can be clearly viewed as an outlier due to low attempts. In other words, Durant has been locked in all season long. If these games mark the “adjustment period” for Durant in the Warriors offense, there seems to be very little doubt that he finishes north of 55 percent shooting on the season.

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George Hill’s field goal and three-point percentage

The biggest surprise of the early season may just be Hill’s entire existence during his first year with the Utah Jazz. Known as more of a 3-and-D point guard during the first eight years of his career, not much was expected from Hill after being traded to Utah just prior to the NBA Draft. Meaning it was implied the Jazz, a defensive-minded team in need of better shooting from the point guard position, was hoping to get a perfect fit for their system and not a top-10 floor general to take over the offense.

So far this season, it appears as if Utah ended up with the latter. Granted, Hill is averaging just 4.2 assists per game, which is right around his season average during his five years with the Indiana Pacers. Hill is averaging a career-high 21.2 points per game to go with a career-high shooting line across the board. He has done so in just 10 of Utah’s first 19 games, missing nine games with a thumb injury.

Due to the missed time, it’s easier to write off Hill’s fast start as being a small sample size considering he’s played in just over 50 percent of his team’s games. Nonetheless, this likely represents the best 10-game stretch of Hill’s career and the numbers warrant attention. Hill’s (potentially) first 20 points per game season has been aided by a 54.3 field goal percentage and 44.4 3-point percentage, good for first and second best among NBA point guards. He is also getting to the line and making more free throws than ever before, but it has been the lights out shooting from the field that has defined Hill’s season so far.

Sometimes, it only takes a change of scenery for a player to fully show his potential. After being labeled the losing end of one of the most lopsided trades in NBA history, Hill may have finally escaped the shadow of Kawhi Leonard in Utah and is taking on a real leadership role for the first time in his career. Considering Utah is 5-0 with both Hill and Gordon Hayward in the lineup (6-8 otherwise), it is very likely that the strong start is legit and a key part of Utah taking the next step. The percentages may dip, but Hill is definitely capable of maintaining his status as one of the most efficient point guards in the league.

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