5 reasons the Patriots will still go to Super Bowl 51 without Rob Gronkowski
By Adam Cox
4. The Patriots are tops in the AFC
The Patriots are 9-2 and currently first in the AFC East. This places them atop the AFC playoff standings and in pole position to gain home-field advantage. And this increases the Patriots’ odds of making it to Houston and Super Bowl LI.
Home-field advantage is real. Whether it be psychological factors, not having to travel, familiarity with the home field, or the weather, teams win more games at home. This holds both during the regular season and during the playoffs. Although this advantage appears to diminish with each subsequent playoff round, there is still an advantage.
In their past five playoff runs (since 2011), the Patriots are 7-1 at home. They are 0-2 at other venues.
During the 2016 season, the Patriots have been better on the road. They are 3-2 at home versus 6-0 on the road. One loss, however, was without Brady and the other was to the Seattle Seahawks, one of the top contenders for the Super Bowl in the NFC. And the Patriots were in the game until the very end.
Furthermore, who will unseat the Patriots from the top of the AFC standings? They are 2 games up on the Miami Dolphins in the AFC East. The only teams within 2 games of the Patriots for the race in the AFC are the Oakland Raiders (9-2), Kansas City Chiefs (8-3), Dolphins (7-4), and the Denver Broncos (7-4). And the remaining teams on the Patriots’ schedule have a combined record of 27-28.
Pessimistically, the Patriots will finish 12-4. This should be enough to clinch the AFC’s top seed.