The NFC North-leading Detroit Lions host the 3-9 Chicago Bears at Ford Field in Week 14. Here’s a preview and prediction for Sunday’s game, along with the odds.
Almost without anybody noticing, the Detroit Lions have taken control of the NFC North. The Lions top the division at 8-4, thanks largely to a turnover-binging defense. By contrast, this Sunday’s opponent, the Chicago Bears, sit in the North’s basement at 3-9.
It’s no surprise then the Lions are strong favorites in Week 14. Detroit is tipped by 7.5 on the spread, according to Odds Shark. Meanwhile, the over/under is set at 44.
Betting on the under would make sense considering Chicago’s inconsistent offense and the Lions’ tough D. Detroit boasts the 12th stingiest unit in the NFL in terms of points surrendered.
They are in the middle of the pack in terms of yards allowed, but the Lions have been feasting off turnovers. In fact, coordinator Teryl Austin’s unit has intercepted 10 passes and forced nine fumbles, recovering four.
A defense this opportunistic could bring out the worse in Bears quarterback Matt Barkley. He’s started Chicago’s last two games and could feature again with Jay Cutler sent to IR.
Barkley’s played for three teams in four years and has thrown four picks compared to just three touchdowns this season. His inexperience and raw mechanics should be exploited by a Lions defense brimming with savvy veterans.
Linebacker DeAndre Levy, safety Glover Quin and tackle Haloti Ngata ensure Austin’s group is both tough and resourceful. The coordinator is also adept at designing creative wrinkles for his scheme, intended to create pressure and force mistakes.
Oft-injured Levy could finally be ready to start this week, according to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com. His versatility is vital in Austin’s hybrid system.
If Levy does play, his chief focus will be Bears rookie running back Jordan Howard. The former Indiana workhorse has been on a tear in recent weeks. Howard trampled all over the hapless San Francisco 49ers in Week 13, amassing 117 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries.
Howard won’t find as much room between the tackles this week, though. Not when the Lions field bulky duo Ngata and Tyrunn Walker at the heart of their D-line. The rotation at tackle is also strong, with Khyri Thornton and rookie A’Shawn Robinson also available.
If the Lions take Howard away, it will be a long afternoon for Barkley.
The Lions can force Barkely into catch up mode by getting greater production from their own offense. Points have been at a premium this season, despite the presence of quarterback Matthew Stafford and receivers Golden Tate III, Anquan Boldin and Marvin Jones.
Admittedly, the absence of a credible running game hasn’t helped Stafford and Co. It’s still not clear who will get the carries this week.
The choice is between a host of retreads and rookies. Joique Bell has been brought back to compete with Zach Zenner, Theo Riddick and Dwayne Washington.
One problem the Lions have is Bell and Riddick are more adept as pass-catchers than runners. Substituting runs for short passes still looks like coordinator Jim Bob Cooter’s smartest plan.
It’s not as if this Lions offense will be competing against a dominant defense. The Bears have struggled all year on that side of the ball, with the pass rush meagre and plenty of holes in the secondary.
Frankly, Chicago’s issues on defense are puzzling. The personnel is promising and the coaching should be excellent.
However, veteran coordinator Vic Fangio hasn’t been able to inspire a group featuring mean tackle Akiem Hicks, capable edge-rusher Leonard Floyd and nose tackle Eddie Goldman.
Fangio is expected to leave the Windy City in the offseason, per Mike Mulligan of the Chicago Tribune. Interestingly, Mulligan highlighted possible philosophical differences between Fangio and head coach John Fox.
Fangio is a 3-4 guy, while Fox has traditionally employed 4-3 concepts. The latter has also tended to bring more pressure than the cautious Fangio has favored.
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It won’t matter what the Bears schemes look like if the Lions can’t show balance on offense. They’ll need a veteran like Bell to steadily grind out some tough yards inside and keep the Bears honest.
Then Stafford and his targets should do enough to ensure a ninth win for the Lions.
Pick: Lions 20, Bears 13