Prospect Calibration: Don’t forget about Brandon Ingram

As one of the youngest players in the 2016 draft class, I expected Brandon Ingram to struggle early on, and struggle he has. Marred by shooting and scoring inefficiency, Ingram hasn’t hit the ground running to the extent most probably expected from a player taken with the #2 overall draft pick. His body isn’t developed enough to compensate yet for his lack of elite quickness and overall athleticism. He needs that strength punch to dislodge players and create the requisite separation to utilize his outlier length extension to finish at heights few perimeter players can contest. Otherwise, the creation he generates is predicated on his shot falling from the outside, opening up driving lanes on closeouts, but alas, his shot hasn’t fallen either.

Basically, Ingram’s ceiling as a primary wing scorer and his ability to hold up on the glass kicking to the four spot is in limbo and is at the mercy of time. A mere glance at his stats, which are notably ghastly, doesn’t tell the full story of the flashes he’s shown however. That requires a deeper dive…

Ingram’s best long-term quality is probably his primary scoring creation ability on the wing, but his most underrated attribute is his feel for the game. Ingram can read the floor already and make at least simple reads. It was a subtle attribute he displayed at Duke that wasn’t really captured in full by statistical indicators.

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Ingram can already initiate the offense on occasion and play in pick-and-roll, armed with the vision to hit the roll man at the right moment.

Many young players get sped up and dribble right into traffic when they lose composure. Ingram is a fluid dribbler and is natural at reading the dig defender without dribbling into a double-team.

And again.

This isn’t a difficult read for veterans being one pass away in one’s sight-line, but for a 19 year-old rookie it’s promising to see Ingram showing intelligence on-ball, uncommon for his age and position.

Ingram is fairly advanced at quickly reading the floor, as in this situation where he reads the coverage and immediately throws an on-point lob pass to Timofey Mozgov for the finish.

He’s just an unselfish player who is fully content making the extra pass, fitting into Luke Walton’s Golden State Warriors’ catch-and-don’t-hold motion offense seamlessly:

This rotation block on the weak side, grab-and-go handle and ultimate transition drop-off to Larry Nance Jr. for the finish really encapsulates Ingram’s overall skill-set.

Another area for perimeter players that indicates feel is opportunistic cutting off-ball, showing the awareness to exploit the weaknesses in defenses. Here, Ingram astutely recognizes Terrence Ross’ head turn, and he shoots right to the gap in the defense, making himself available for the easy finish.

Some of this is obviously KYP (know your personnel), as the Lakers’ coaching staff has clearly informed Ingram that Ross repeatedly drifts and loses his man off-ball. But the ability to still dissect that play and react live is impressive.

As a creator, one area Ingram will eventually dominate in (in my opinion) is operating in the mid-post area. He’s just too big and long for most wings to contest there. Ingram has already shown a proclivity in this fashion, registering a 1.00 points per possession efficiency mark on 18 finishing possessions on post-ups this year, good for the 79th percentile per Synergy Sports.

Ingram can easily shoot right over smaller players in these situations, like he did frequently at Duke, and as we see again here with Ian Clark hopelessly trying to contest.

The following is a high degree of difficulty shot, and while Norman Powell is undersized to defend elite taller wings, he still has respectable measurables, especially plus strength, and it doesn’t really matter.

Even one of the premiere defensive wings in the game in Andre Iguodala can’t deal with Ingram’s delivery point at the apex.

Ingram is doing this all without the lower body girth to really anchor and either move bodies for better position or dislodge defenders with his body to prevent contests. When (and if) he acquires said girth, he’s going to be a monster in this area.

While Ingram has faired well in post up situations, his pick-and-roll scoring efficiency has been outlier poor. He can facilitate in these setting competently, but too many of his finishing opportunities this year have looked like this.

Roughly 20 percent of his offense, 46 possessions specifically, have come as the pick-and-roll ball-handler this year, and Ingram is converting at a futile rate of .37 points per possession, in the first (!!!!!) percentile.

Some of this is just randomness. Some of it is because Ingram has never really excelled shooting off the dribble. A lot of it though is that Ingram doesn’t have the frame yet to really utilize his full tools in finishing through contact. This is a good example of the latter, as Ingram even with a head of steam in transition can’t run through Solomon Hill to create enough space to finish.

Rounding out on-ball play type creation, Ingram has put flashes on tape of the potential isolation scoring aspect in his toolbox, especially his agility advantage over NBA fours.

Transitioning to shooting, Ingram’s proficiency in this regard was a touch overrated entering the draft. He had negative indicators in his profile, from shooting 68.2 percent from the foul line on 170 attempts, to converting just .637 points per possession in half-court dribble jumpers at Duke, an almost negative outlier mark, per Synergy. Ingram faired much better off the catch despite being somewhat streaky from 3 at 41 percent on 195 attempts. Some considered Ingram an elite shooting prospect because of his 3-point percentage, and that number overshadowed the fact Ingram wasn’t a surefire bet to shoot it well.

His struggles thus far as a floor spacer aren’t overly surprising upon a deeper pre-draft look. He currently has a 35.2 effective field goal percentage off the dribble, which is poor, and correlates with his college indicator. He fairs better, as expected, on spot up opportunities, sporting a 1.07 points per possession mark on 57 finishing possessions, good for the 69th percentile

My take on Ingram’s shooting has always been he’s a rhythm shooter who can get nuclear hot when he gets his shot going off the catch, but isn’t a consistent knock-down threat. His mechanics are solid for the most part however.

This is the most aesthetic spot up 3 that I’ve seen from Ingram this season. He catches on the hop, and there is no wasted motion coupled with a high and fluid release.

Ingram is fairly consistent at following through, showing good wrist action (and in this case does a good job catching an off-target kick-out).

He also doesn’t need to dip the ball much, which quickens his shooting motion and he shows consistently good arc on his shot.

Ingram has the size and high release point to shoot effectively over closeouts, and can serve as a high volume 3-point shooter, which is a rarer skill than given credit for.

If Ingram’s shot starts falling at an above average rate from outside, it will open up his long-stride dribble drive game on closeouts where Ingram can get to the basket quickly using the momentum of closeout defender against him. Ingram has a decent first step but it’s not overly explosive, and he’s not a plus start/stop athlete. Thus, the threat of his shot like in the following clip is paramount.

Ingram can really cover ground quickly being a space-eating long-strider. When you pair that with elite length extension, you get conversions like these over the outstretched contest of Draymond Green, which would be a block against most everyone else.

Ingram compensates for a lack of sudden shiftiness and acceleration with gliding smoothness, like on this beautiful blow-by.

This is what you hope he’ll eventually be able to do in more confined spaces in the half court — shield and dislodge defenders with his body and use his length to reach an apex most defenders on earth can’t contest.

Ingram likely wont be the same archetype as Giannis Antetokounmpo in being the same caliber of primary initiator or high volume creator for others. But in terms of body composition and length, there are definite parallels. Antetokounmpo was thin when he entered the league, and most draft evaluations questioned his overall athleticism. He grew height-wise after being drafted of course, but the real key was putting on the requisite strength to not get bumped off his spots and enabling him to finish through contact. Ingram has similar space-eating long-strides and handling ability, and in time could add devastating open court euro-steps and spin moves like this.

There is a lot to look forward to with Ingram offensively as his body matures, but crazily enough, offense might be Ingram’s weaker side of the ball moving forward.

At almost 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, Ingram has the measurables to wreak havoc on the defensive side of the ball. He’s not armed with quick twitch athleticism or plus change of direction ability, but Ingram has enough juice to stay close enough to most perimeter players to erase their shot attempts with his length.

How we view wing defense traditionally is based on on-ball “defensive stopper” ability in an isolation sense. Basically, can player A keep player B from either going around him or going through him in space or in the post. Typically, you put your strongest wing defender in a man situation against the other team’s best wing scorer. So was life.

Only recently has the shift noticeably gone from that traditional lens to a more multi-faceted approach. As with many new developments in the league, we have the Golden State Warriors to thank in part for a new transformation: putting your best wing defender on the weakest offensive player and having him exude maximum utility as an off-ball help defender. We have seen this frequently with Andre Iguodala, who would cede on-ball defensive duties to Klay Thompson and would expertly deny actions and thrive creating steals and deflections in the passing lanes and on opportunistic dig downs. Of course, Iguodala still kicked over on-ball to defend the LeBron James’ of the world, but a lot of his utility was off-ball.

The San Antonio Spurs continued this trend in the playoffs last season with Kawhi Leonard, the best defensive wing since Scottie Pippen. Traditionally seen as a smothering on-ball defensive dynamo with his endless tentacles, most expected Leonard to guard Kevin Durant consistently in the playoffs last year in the second round against the Oklahoma City Thunder. While he did a fair amount, Greg Popovich left that duty to Danny Green for the most part, which freed up Leonard in kind of a novel role. Leonard “guarded” non-shooter Andre Roberson, and unlike Iguodala before him who was mostly a ball-denial off-ball player, Leonard became a full-fledged free safety chaos-creator who could also protect the rim. This allowed more interior paint protection against Russell Westbrook drives, and really unleashed Leonard to cause maximum havoc with his incredible length and range mucking up actions off-ball.

Ingram isn’t the athlete that Leonard is, but he has the length and range to be an impact defender in a similar way off-ball, getting in the passing lanes and contesting perimeter jump shots on closeouts. When you watch Lakers’ games this year, you see a common trend in regards to Ingram — Walton is comfortable leaving him as a weak side defender often having coverage responsibility for two players, allowing the Lakers to overload the strong side.

Here, Nance and Lou Williams trap Patrick Beverley in the corner, and notice Ingram’s position under the basket. He has responsibility for both Corey Brewer working his way to the weak side dunker position and Sam Dekker trying to get out behind the arc. Ingram has the range and length to break the pass up for the steal.

We see a similar concept in a game against the Warriors, with Ingram working through Green’s body and breaking up the pass back to Kevin Durant out of ICE.

In both situations Ingram is essentially tasked with being responsible for two people in a free safety kind of way. Having this kind of range and rim protection ability on the weak side expands scheming options to coaches defensively, and is an area Antetokounmpo especially thrives in.

Ingram’s outlier length is overall just an enormous nuisance in passing lanes, even for adept passers.

Most fives in the league also don’t expect to get there shot blocked on runners like this.

Not many players have the length and mobility to chase Durant around an early offense screen like this and recover to block a player’s shot who rarely ever gets his shot blocked.

Even if Ingram gives up a full step with his lack of elite foot speed, he has air-space erasing length to recover.

What really separates Ingram from a lot of other wings is his rim protection acumen, which will bode well for his ability to man the four spot in the future. Ingram is second on the Lakers, allowing 52.2 percent shooting to opponents near the rim when he’s the closest defender, just .2 percentage points more than Timofey Mozgov. In the following clip he’s actually defending the roll man in pick-and-roll, quickly re-positions himself to account for the flipped screen, walls off the dribbler and blocks the shot, showing the entire package.

While Ingram’s future outlook defensively is promising, there are current (expected) negatives that almost always come with young wings .

Ingram’s lack of strength to anchor in the post and on the glass is his main detracting issue. Here, DeMar DeRozan easily moves him in the post and goes right around him without getting bumped off his spot in the slightest.

Ingram also doesn’t have the strength to anchor and keep bigger players off the glass yet.

There are mental breakdowns like the following clip, where Ingram helps one pass away off of a noted shooter in Kyle Lowry when it’s not his help assignment.

One negative element of Ingram’s defense that probably wont change is his lack of elite change of direction, mostly seen defending on-ball. He’s fluid overall, but is a long-strider in straight lines who doesn’t fare nearly as well when you get him going in multiple directions in quick succession.

This is of course an outlier example, as Ingram will never be expected to lock down a shifty athletic lead guard like Lowry consistently. It’s more so just an example of his lack of plus speed and change of direction.

We see Ingram not being a quick twitch athlete later in the same game again on Lowry, as he doesn’t have the sudden explosion to recover to Lowry once he hesitates.

Ingram doesn’t need to be ultra-twitchy or possess elite foot speed to be an impact defender however. His size, length, defensive switching versatility, and chaos-creating potential as a help defender will likely render him a plus overall defender who can defend very well on-ball in most matchups.

Listen: Klay Thompson and the history of 60-point NBA games

Overall, Ingram is still growing into his role in the NBA. He needs to be more aggressive looking for his offense at times, something that has helped fellow rookie Jamal Murray greatly in the early part of the season. But a closer look outside of efficiency stats reveals the skill and intelligence baselines that exist already. This class has lacked the immediate translatable star power of the 2015 Draft (which was an enormous outlier), mostly because the best prospect in it hasn’t played a game in the NBA yet and the other two impact players (Ingram and Dragan Bender) are the two youngest players in the class.

It’s easy to downplay Ingram as a result, but context is everything. I expect a sizable leap from Ingram in years two and three, when impact players start to really flash. With Ingram and D’Angelo Russell as franchise cornerstones, and with Julius Randle’s third-year ascension, the future is bright in Los Angeles.