Wing creators to watch in the 2017 NBA Draft class

Josh Jackson is one of the most well-known commodities in the 2017 NBA Draft class. In particular, the 6-foot-8 wing has been lauded for his two-way ability from the wing position, specifically his role as a creator both in the halfcourt and in transition.

At DraftExpress, where Jackson currently ranks as the no. 3 prospect, video scout Mike Schmitz wrote after seeing him play at Steph Curry’s camp over the summer, “He looked very comfortable whipping the ball ahead or pushing himself to find a teammate or finish above the rim himself.” SB Nation has already compiled a collection of Jackson’s flashiest passes from this season. Kansas had only played seven games at the time and he was already deserving of a mixtape. And we wrote about Jackson’s outstanding performance against Duke in the Champions Classic where he showed just how well he can score off the bounce.

Having a bigger player that can handle the ball and initiate offense often sets apart the best teams in the NBA from the rest. Lebron James can do it for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Draymond Green and Kevin Durant are both capable initiators for the Golden State Warriors. These players often create mismatches that help generate open 3s or lead to close buckets at the rim. Even rising teams are trying to get on the bandwagon. Giannis Antetokounmpo, at 6-foot-11, is now playing point guard for the Milwaukee Bucks and Ben Simmons seems likely to do the same for the Philadelphia 76ers.

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The problem is that finding a good wing creator is the most difficult thing to do in roster construction. So, it seems worth taking a look at what prospects from the 2017 class might fit the bill. Below, I’ve charted out the collegiate shooting guards and small forwards currently listed in the DraftExpress Top 100 by assist rate and usage rate to give us an idea of just how often they’re creating offensive value either via an assisted bucket or a score of their own.*

We can start with Jackson who sits in the top right quadrant, the home of wings who can create for themselves and others. The 19-year old is averaging 21.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per 40 minutes while often playing as a small ball power forward for Kansas. Through nine games, he has a usage rate of 25.9 percent, which is above the 24.0 percent mark that KenPom uses to identify major contributors. Jackson has also found a home as a distributor, posting an assist rate of 21.3 percent while averaging 5.2 dimes per 40 minutes. The swingman is doing this while often sharing the floor with a pair of talented college point guards, Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham, who use or assist on a significant number of baskets.

Jackson is clustered near a pair of upperclassmen in Villanova’s Josh Hart and Duke’s Grayson Allen. Hart is well-respected as an all-around role-player who has blossomed into a superstar because of his two-way play at the college level. This season, though, Hart has elevated his facilitating by showing skills as a pick-and-roll ball-handler and secondary creator next to point guard Jalen Brunson. Allen, meanwhile, has historically been an efficient scorer from just about everywhere on the court. He’s not the same kind of creator that Jackson or Hart are in terms of making passes on the move, but his 20.7 percent assist rate shows he’s someone capable of playing within the flow of an offense when surrounded by talented players. If Allen doesn’t make it in the league, it won’t be his offense holding him back.

Also notable here is Dillon Brooks, a 6-foot-7 wing who is the heart of Oregon’s offensive attack. Brooks has only played in five games this season because he was recovering from a foot injury, but he is so far outpacing his numbers from 2015-16 in terms of both usage rate and assist rate. As a nearly 21-year old junior, Brooks is not a highly sought after prospect in large part because of his mediocre outside shooting (34.0 percent over 235 attempts in three seasons) and uninspiring statistical impact on defense.

Ultimately, the most interesting prospects in this group can make an impact on both ends of the floor. In order to contextualize this, I’ve charted the same prospects below using Defensive Box Plus/Minus to measure defensive impact and a calculation of assist rate/usage rate to reflect playmaking ability as passed down from Marc Whittington to Cole Zwicker and cited here.

Before we dive into a few of the other players, it’s worth mentioning Louisville guard Donovan Mitchell. The sophomore has so far posted a ridiculous (for a guard) Defensive Box Plus-Minus of 8.2 on the back of a 4.8 percent steal rate and a 3.2 percent block rate. At 6-foot-3, it’s hard to imagine that Mitchell will maintain that block rate over the course of the season and given his size, he’s certain to be a combo guard at the next level rather than a true wing (note: this is also true of Kentucky’s Isaiah Briscoe who ranks well in our first chart).

Other than Mitchell, a triad of players — the aforementioned Jackson, Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and Texas A&M’s D.J. Hogg — stick out in the upper right quadrant which this time represents a marriage between creation and defense. Here’s a quick look at the trio based on all the statistics we’ve charted so far and sorted by usage rate.

If it wasn’t clear already why Jackson is considered among the 2017 draft’s best prospects, it should be now. Among true wings playing in college in the DraftExpress Top 100, he boasts the best DBPM number by a slight margin while scoring and assisting at a high level. The other two prospects here, though, might come off as a surprise.

Hogg is the more active of the two. A 6-foot-9 sophomore who spent most of last season backing up Danuel House, Hogg has become a major player in the Aggies’ offense. After incoming freshman point guard J.J. Caldwell was ruled ineligible by the NCAA, Texas A&M had to recalibrate how it would create offense. Hogg has been the beneficiary, increasing his field goal attempts per 40 minutes from 12.6 to 16.6 and his assists per 40 minutes from 2.1 to 5.3.

From an NBA perspective, Hogg is an intriguing prospect because of what he’s flashed operating as a ballhandler early this season. In the below collection of video clips, Hogg shows nice vision and an ability to manipulate the pick-and-roll.

The 20-year old is currently ranked no. 65 on DraftExpress and unranked on our own Big Board. Despite boasting a strong DBPM buoyed by a decent block and steal rates (4.0 percent and 2.5 percent), there are questions about how Hogg will handle defending quicker players in the NBA.

Bridges, meanwhile, is prized for his defensive potential. At 6-foot-7, the sophomore has a 7-foot-0.5 wingspan. His length and instincts have helped him post a 3.2 percent steal rate over two seasons with the Wildcats. Assuming he’s able to add some strength to his 190-pound frame, he should be a versatile defender at the next level.

There are more questions about Bridges on the offensive end where, as you can see in the above charts, he plays a relatively small role for Villanova despite posting quality numbers. There are hopes that after a poor shooting year last season (29.9 three-point percentage) Bridges will develop into a credible threat from beyond the arc as a sophomore. As a passer, the 20-year old operates largely within the confines of the offense rather than initiating it like Hart. Here are a couple of examples of Bridges’ assists from this season where although he technically makes the pass to his teammate, his teammate is the one creating the points.

Bridges is currently no. 41 at DraftExpress and no. 23 on our board. While the swingman is a talented prospect, he seems likely to fit best at the next level as a 3-and-D wing and slasher who can offer a bit of creation within the flow of the offense rather than as a primary wing creator.

If anything, this exercise should illustrate just how difficult it is to find two-way wing creators. Kansas’ Josh Jackson certainly needs an improved jumper, but appears to have the potential to translate at the NBA level as an initiator and defender. Others have noticeable question marks. Oregon’s Dillon Brooks has been excellent on the offensive end, but struggled on defense. Villanova’s Josh Hart does it all, but will be 22-years old before the draft rolls around. His teammate, Mikal Bridges, has top notch numbers but in limited usage on offense while Texas A&M’s D.J. Hogg may end up rising on draft boards if he can show improvement on the other end.

Given the potential impact of these types of players, though, NBA teams will keep searching for them. After all, it might be their path to a championship.

*All statistics were taken from Sports-Reference.com/cbb for 2016-17 unless otherwise noted. Allonzo Trier’s statistics are from 2015-16 as he has yet to play a game this season.