College football picks against the spread: Bowl season, week 1

Dec 3, 2016; Laramie, WY, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Kyree Woods (27) and tight end Darryl Richardson (84) celebrates after game against the Wyoming Cowboys at the Mountain West Championship college football game at War Memorial Stadium. The Aztecs beat the Cowboys 27-24. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports /

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Nov 25, 2016; Hattiesburg, MS, USA; Southern Miss Golden Eagles defensive back Cornell Armstrong (3) celebrates an interception with linebackers Elijah Parker (17) and Sherrod Ruff (37) against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs in the second half at M.M. Roberts Stadium. Southern Miss won, 39-24. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports /

New Orleans Bowl (9:00 pm ET, ESPN) – Southern Miss (-4) over Louisiana-Lafayette

While I default to the underdog in basically every circumstance, I have to lay the points here. The big reason? Louisiana-Lafayette is bad at football.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are a ghastly 107th in the country according to S&P+ and that includes an offense that ranks 121st in the land by the same metric. Make no mistake, Southern Miss isn’t very good either and, frankly, this might be the worst bowl game of them all. Still, the Golden Eagles ended the season with a very impressive win over a good Louisiana Tech team and this number should be larger than it is.

Remember when Southern Miss went into Lexington and beat Kentucky on Sept. 3? Okay, maybe you don’t. It did happen, though, and this is an instance where the point spread does not match the true difference between these two teams. I don’t like to lay points, but there is no other option in this spot.

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