The best rookie from the 2016 draft class is…Malcolm Brogdon?
By Jack Maloney
With the likes of Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram, and Kris Dunn leading the way, the 2016 Draft Class was hyped as one of the best in years. But after nearly two months of the 2016-17 season, the rookie (from the class of 2016: non-Joel Embiid division) playing the best basketball is in fact…Malcolm Brogdon?
The Milwaukee Bucks selected Brogdon with the seventh pick of the second round (36th overall) after an impressive four-year career at the University of Virginia which saw him win NABC Defensive Player of the Year, ACC Player of the Year, ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and be named as a consensus All-American.
Early on this season, Brogdon has shown those accolades were bestowed upon him for a reason; he might have been a second round pick, but Brogdon can play. If there is a silver lining in Khris Middleton’s long-term hamstring injury, it would be the opportunity it presented to Brogdon, who has certainly seen more action than he would have if Middleton was healthy. The 6-foot-5 Brogdon has seized that opportunity, using his size, experience, and smarts to quickly become an integral part of the Bucks’ rotation.
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At 21.1 minutes a night, Brogdon already plays the fifth most minutes on the Bucks, and of three-man lineups that have played at least 150 minutes, Brogdon is a part of the four best in terms of net rating.
After his first 23 games, Brogdon is in the top-10 among rookies for all major categories except rebounding. And when you filter for just rookies drafted this season, Brogdon moves into the top-six of all of those categories save for rebounding. He won’t win the Rookie of the Year Award, which has likely already been engraved with the name of Joel Embiid, but Brogdon has shown the potential to be a very solid 3-and-D style player (check out his rookie season per-36 numbers side by side with Shane Battier’s) moving forward.
Stat | Brogdon’s Averages | Rookie Rank (Class of ‘16) |
Minutes | 21.1 | 9th (5th) |
Points | 7.7 | 6th (4th) |
Assists | 2.8 | 2nd (2nd) |
Rebounds | 2.2 | 16th (13th) |
Shooting Percentage | 40.9% | 8th (6th) |
3-Point Shooting Percentage | 45.1% | 1st (1st) (10th in league) |
Assist To Turnover Ratio | 2.29 | 1st (1st) (34th in league) |
PER | 12.29 | 5th (3rd) |
The two main areas where Brogdon is making a difference for the Bucks this season are 3-point shooting and defense. (Though in addition he has also shown the ability to handle the ball and run the offense with limited mistakes as shown by his stellar assist to turnover ratio.) The 3-point shooting is obvious when looking at the stats (45.1 percent — first among rookies, 10th in the league); on the other end of the floor he has the fourth-best defensive rating on the Bucks (103.1) and is sixth among rookies with one steal per game, but of course stats cannot tell the whole story. Let’s take a closer look at how Brogdon is helping the Bucks in these two areas this season.
3-point shooting
As noted above, Brogdon is having a spectacular season shooting the ball from downtown. Brogdon was solid from downtown in college, hitting at a 36.5 percent (39.1 percent in his senior season) clip, but the uptick in his first pro season is a welcome surprise for a Bucks team that shot just 34.5 percent on 3s last year (22nd in the league) and coming into this year had no returning healthy players who shot over 30 percent one 3-pointers last season (save for Steve Novak, who rarely plays).
So far this year, the Bucks are once again struggling from downtown, shooting 34.3 percent, but it would be much worse if not for the sharp shooting of Brogdon. The rookie gets most of his 3-point looks on spot-ups, creating an outlet for his teammates (especially Giannis) should they get double-teamed or bottled up in the paint.
Here’s one play in particular in which Brogdon gets an open look thanks to attention Giannis draws. As Giannis controls on the wing, DeMarre Carroll shades over to provide help on Giannis.
Once the Greek Freak begins to probe, Carroll completely abandons Brogdon to shut off the driving lane.
Giannis spots his open teammate, and despite Carroll’s hustle to get back into the play, Brogdon is able to knock down the open look.
With Giannis playing at an All-Star level, teams are almost always going to throw an extra defender at him. So far, Brogdon has done a solid job of making teams pay when they leave him on the perimeter. Here’s a sampling of him knocking down shots off kick-outs from Giannis.
Defense
At 6-foot-5 (with a 6-foot-10 wingspan) and 215 pounds, Brogdon has terrific size and length at the guard position, which, coupled with his impressive quickness and footwork, allows him to guard multiple positions. Whether it’s dealing with bigger guards like DeMar DeRozan, or staying with the likes of Stephen Curry and John Wall, Brogdon has shown that the defensive capabilities that led him to multiple collegiate defensive player of the year awards as a senior translate quite well to the NBA.
Here is Brogdon sticking with Curry both on-ball and off.
Brogdon, meeting Damian Lillard on the break, moving his feet, and contesting the shot without fouling.
Brogdon, moving his feet and fighting around screens to force the ball out of Wall’s hands.
Now it’s easy to just pick a few clips of Brogdon looking good, but they represent a larger trend. Brogdon is often dealing with great offensive players. Curry, Lillard, and Wall are all vets and among the top-13 in scoring this season. Brogdon’s ability to step right in and help contain other team’s top options is a big part of the Bucks having the 12th ranked defense (103.7 defensive rating) in the league this season.
After a big win over the Chicago Bulls on TNT Thursday night, the Bucks sit at 12-12 and hold the eighth and final playoff spot. Over the next four months, Malcolm Brogdon will play a key role as the Bucks try to hold on to that spot and make their return to the postseason.
Stats (via ESPN, NBA.com, and Basketball Reference) current as of 12/14/16