Boca Raton Bowl, Memphis vs Western Kentucky: Preview and predictions
Expect to see plenty of points on the board in the 2016 Boca Raton Bowl between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Memphis Tigers.
Two of the most potent offenses in college football will clash when the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers meet the Memphis Tigers in the 2016 Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday night at FAU Stadium.
Western Kentucky earned its second straight Conference USA championship with a 10-3 regular season record that included an eight-game winning streak to end the year. The Hilltoppers led the nation with 48.8 points per game and scored were not held to fewer than 30 points by any team other than Alabama this season.
While Jeff Brohm will not coach the Boca Raton Bowl after accepting the head coaching job at Purdue, Western Kentucky’s offense will still be in good hands. Junior quarterback Mike White topped the 4,000 passing yards mark with 34 touchdowns to six interceptions, while Taywan Taylor finished second in the nation with 1,586 receiving yards.
Despite losing Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech and Paxton Lynch to the NFL over the offseason, first-year head coach Mike Norvell guided Memphis to a successful 8-4 campaign. The Tigers went 5-3 in conference play to finish third in the AAC West but took down champion Temple and No. 18 Houston along the way.
Memphis ranked 18th in the nation in scoring offense at 39.5 points per game, with junior quarterback Riley Ferguson piling up 3,326 yards and 28 touchdowns. Wide receiver Anthony Miller was Ferguson’s favorite target with 1,283 yards and 11 touchdowns.
As expected, oddsmakers are predicting a one-score game with one of the highest point totals of the bowl season.
Odds
Spread: WKU -5.5
Moneyline: Western Kentucky -5.5, Memphis +180
O/U: 79
With both offenses able to put together explosive scoring drives at any time, the game is going to come down to which team can generate a defensive stop or two.
The Hilltoppers have the defensive advantage on paper, as the unit was solid all year while being overshadowed by the top-ranked offense. Western Kentucky ranked 42nd in the nation in total defense and features a dynamic playmaking linebacker in Keith Brown, who piled up 123 tackles, 12.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks.
On the other side, Memphis ranked 97th in the nation in total defense by surrendering nearly 460 yards per contest. Memphis’ secondary was strong enough this year but will have to contend with two big-play receivers in Taylor and Nicholas Norris.
That will open up running back Anthony Wales to attack the suspect Tigers front seven. Wales piled up nearly 1,400 yards and 24 touchdowns this year to give Western Kentucky a balanced offense that Memphis will struggle to keep up with.
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While Ferguson is going to put some points up, the Tigers could struggle to run the ball. Memphis could have a problem in the trenches as well, as it racked up just 17 sacks this season and is going against one of the best pass protecting lines in the nation on Tuesday.
Western Kentucky’s biggest concern will be adjusting without Brohm, which could play a major factor with defensive coordinator Nick Holt serving as the interim head coach. Still, there are too many weapons on the Hilltoppers offense for Memphis to keep up for 60 minutes.
Prediction: Western Kentucky 45, Memphis 31