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St. Petersburg Bowl, Miami (OH) vs Mississippi State: Preview and predictions

By Nathaniel Reeves

Nov 26, 2016; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker Dezmond Harris (46) and quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (7) celebrate after the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mississippi State won 55-20 Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 26, 2016; Oxford, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker Dezmond Harris (46) and quarterback Nick Fitzgerald (7) celebrate after the game against the Mississippi Rebels at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mississippi State won 55-20 Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports /
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Here’s what to expect when the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Monday morning in the 2016 St. Petersburg Bowl.

Two unlikely postseason teams will meet when the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the 2016 St. Petersburg Bowl on Monday morning at Tropicana Field.

Miami lost its first six games of the regular season, leaving head coach Chuck Martin squarely on the hot seat. Martin engineered an incredible turnaround, as the RedHawks became the first team in FBS history to win six straight games after starting out a season at 0-6 to snap a five-year bowl drought.

The RedHawks picked up some solid wins along the way against fellow bowl-eligible MAC teams in Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Sophomore quarterback Gus Ragland returned from a torn ACL midway through the season and was terrific with 1,274 passing yards and 15 touchdowns to no interceptions in just six games.

Mississippi State lost to South Alabama to begin the year en route to a tough 5-7 campaign. Still, the Bulldogs annihilated Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to salvage the regular season and qualified for a bowl thanks to their high APR score.

Replacing Dak Prescott is an impossible task, but Mississippi State appears to have a promising young quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald. The sophomore threw for 2,281 yards and 21 touchdowns while leading the Bulldogs in rushing with 1,243 yards and an additional 14 scores.

As is to be expected in a matchup between the SEC and MAC, oddsmakers are pegging the Bulldogs as a heavy favorite.

Odds

Spread: Mississippi State -14

Moneyline: Mississippi State -550, Miami (OH) +445

O/U: 58

It certainly wasn’t a banner year for Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are going to have an athletic advantage all over the field on Monday. However, this could be one of the few bowl games where motivation comes into play.

Dan Mullen’s main challenge will be getting a 5-7 team motivated enough for a game at Tropicana Field after many players on the roster went to more desirable bowls over the previous three years. On the other side, Miami should have no trouble getting excited for a chance to finish above .500 with a bowl win after the disastrous start.

Meanwhile, the matchup may not be as bad for the RedHawks as many would think going up against a team from the SEC West. Ragland is an efficient quarterback and could have a big day against a Bulldogs secondary that gave up 266.3 passing yards per game to rank 111th in the nation.

Miami’s defense allowed 5.1 points per play and is fairly balanced between run and pass. Of course, Fitzgerald will be the best quarterback the RedHawks have faced this year and brings a challenging skill set to defend.

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The biggest key for the RedHawks will be avoiding getting dominated at the line of scrimmage, as they gave up sacks on a miserable 11.59 percent of quarterback dropbacks. However, the Bulldogs will be missing key defensive tackle A.J. Jefferson, along with three offensive linemen.

Fitzgerald will put some points up, but the pieces are in place for Miami to spring one of the biggest upsets of bowl season if it can avoid getting athletically overwhelmed early on.

Prediction: Miami 38,  Mississippi State 35.

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