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When will Gonzaga lose their first game?

By Charlie Maikis

Dec 7, 2016; Spokane, WA, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs center Przemek Karnowski (24) and Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Josh Perkins (13) celebrate after a basket against the Washington Huskies during the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. The Bulldogs won 98-71. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 7, 2016; Spokane, WA, USA; Gonzaga Bulldogs center Przemek Karnowski (24) and Gonzaga Bulldogs guard Josh Perkins (13) celebrate after a basket against the Washington Huskies during the second half at McCarthey Athletic Center. The Bulldogs won 98-71. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports /
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With West Virginia throttling No. 1 Baylor on Tuesday night, only one undefeated team remains in Division I: the Gonzaga Bulldogs. While Mark Few’s team doesn’t have the most impressive résumé out there (they didn’t play a single true road game until West Coast Conference play started), they still posted a handful of very good wins in non-conference play including neutral site wins over Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona.

KenPom has the team rated seventh in the nation in adjusted efficiency, and playing in such a weak conference means that they have a good shot at running the table. As such, Kenpom gives Gonzaga a 14.4 percent chance to head to the postseason with an unblemished record. The only game in which his win probability for the Zags is under 50 percent is when they travel to St. Mary’s on February 11, and they have a 46 percent chance to win that one.

So will the Bulldogs stay undefeated for the remainder of the season, will they drop one on their trip to Moraga, California, or will they lose a different game? Let’s take a look at the Bulldogs strengths and weaknesses and how those compare to those of their toughest remaining opponents and determine if or when that first loss will come.

Gonzaga’s Opponents

As I mentioned, the West Coast Conference is not particularly strong outside of Gonzaga. As such, they only have two remaining opponents in Kenpom’s top 100, St. Mary’s at No. 19 and BYU at No. 57. They play each of those teams twice before the end of the regular season, once at home and once on the road. Since winning on the road in college basketball is significantly more difficult than winning at home, it seems likely that if Gonzaga’s first loss does come, it will be at BYU on February 2 or at St. Mary’s on February 11.

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Their next-toughest conference game outside of those two teams has likely already passed, as they went on the road and took down San Francisco 95-80 on January 5. They get the Dons once more, this time at home, and after such an emphatic win away from home Gonzaga is unlikely to fall in that contest. That just leaves one more early February road trip, as they head to play Loyola Marymount on February 9.

Gonzaga’s Strengths

As an elite team, Mark Few and company appear to have strengths in just about every facet of the game. For a weaker team to take them down, then, they will likely have to crack down and neutralize some of Gonzaga’s best points to keep the game close.

On the offensive end, Gonzaga’s dominance starts inside. They are the 11th-tallest team in the nation and as such hover right around the top-10 in effective field goal percentage. Their two 7-footers — 300-pound senior Przemek Karnowski and 230-pound freshman Zach Collins — do the heavy lifting inside. They shoot a combined 64.5 percent on 2-pointers, including a ridiculous performance on the season from Collins. Slowing the Bulldogs is going to have to start with stopping the onslaught inside. Both St. Mary’s and BYU do a decent job of that, allowing opponents to shoot 45.7 percent and 45.8 percent on 2s respectively. Each of them has one of their best players as a big man, with BYU trotting out 6-foot-10 Eric Mika and St. Mary’s had 6-foot-11 Jock Landale. Loyola Marymount, on the other hand, allows opponents to shoot over 50 percent on 2s, 226th in the nation, so that could get ugly quickly.

Gonzaga also likes to play quickly on the offensive end, having the 54th-fastest average offensive possession, per Kenpom. Slowing them down could be a big help in stunting their efficiency, and St. Mary’s opponents have the 346th-fastest offensive possessions out of 351 Division I teams. BYU allows opponents to play very quickly on offense, averaging 14 seconds per possession on that end. If they can’t find a way to slow down the Bulldogs, they could be in trouble. The Gaels appear to be uniquely-suited to competing with Gonzaga’s offense, but how about on defense?

Gonzaga’s biggest boon on the defensive end is running shooters off the arc and contesting 3s. They allow opponents to shoot just 28 percent from deep and get just over a quarter of their points on 3s, ranking 305th nationally. While BYU and Loyola Marymount aren’t particularly adept at long-range shooting, St. Mary’s hits their attempts at almost a 40 percent clip. Freeing up shooters for good looks is a big part of the Gaels’ game plan, so if they can execute against the Zags, they could put up a lot of points.

Gonzaga’s Weaknesses

While few and far between, Gonzaga does have some weaknesses that can be exploited. While Loyola Marymount doesn’t appear to have the chops to slow Gonzaga’s roll at all, BYU and St. Mary’s match up solidly with the Bulldogs’ strengths. Attacking their weaknesses could make all the difference in pulling the upset for those two.

On the offensive end, where the team from Spokane, Washington struggles the most is in getting to the free throw line. While their efficiency on other shots is very good, they don’t cash in a lot of free points at the charity stripe, ranking 188th in the country in free throw rate (which measures a team’s free throw attempts per field goal attempt). Both BYU and St. Mary’s rank in the top 50 in keeping opponents off the line, so either team has a shot to tamper with the Zags ability to get points with the clock stopped.

Defensively, where Gonzaga has the most problems is in forcing turnovers. St. Mary’s is right around the middle of the pack as far as turning it over, but BYU does well at not giving it away. It is one of the Cougars’ biggest strengths on offense, so if they can keep Gonzaga from taking it away from them, they could be on the way to pulling an upset. Making the most out of every possession is huge when it comes to beating a more talented team, and BYU seems best-suited to do that by limiting empty possessions.

Despite all of their size, Gonzaga is also fairly susceptible on the offensive glass. Their opponent obtaining extra possessions and cashing them in could tip the scales against them in a tight game. While offensive rebounding is one of BYU’s bigger faults, it is a big part of St. Mary’s game. The aforementioned Landale ranks 20th in the country in offensive rebounding rate according to Kenpom and fellow big Dane Pineau comes in just behind him at 24th. If those two can attack the offensive glass and win some free possessions for their team, they could give the Bulldogs headaches.

Gonzaga’s Loss

It seems like St. Mary’s has the best chance to take down Mark Few’s squad after all. While BYU matches up well with Gonzaga in some areas, they lack in other crucial ones. They will likely struggle to slow Gonzaga down on offense, and when combined with not getting high-efficiency possessions on 3-point shots, they will likely struggle to keep up. If St. Mary’s can slow the Bulldogs and hit some big shots, McKeon Pavillion could get loud and make it tough for Gonzaga to respond. Even if they don’t get hot, the Gaels’ ability to garner extra possessions on the offensive boards and keep Gonzaga from getting easy points on free throws, the recipe for an upset is there.

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Gonzaga plays on the road in two of their tougher remaining games in the days prior to their matchup with the Gaels. Between traveling to Utah to face BYU the week before and going to Loyola Marymount just two days before the game, the team could be worn out by a long conference schedule. St. Mary’s on the other hand, plays their preceding game at home against a weak Portland team so they will be well-rested and ready to take on the biggest hit the Bulldogs can land. Gonzaga won’t make it through to the postseason untouched, and like in seasons past the St. Mary’s Gaels will be the ones dealing the blow.