2017 NBA Draft Prospects: Stock up, stock down

The college basketball season can be a roller coaster for the stock of NBA Draft prospects. A few good games, a few bad ones, can make all the difference in how player’s and their reputations are framed. Here, we take a look at a few aspects of player profiles that are headed up or down.

Stock Up: De’Aaron Fox’s finishing

Fox has been a contentious subject amongst draftniks, as non-shooting lead guards present a historically dicey archetype translation to winning basketball in the NBA, due to schematic limitations. Simply put, if you are a lead guard who can’t shoot, can’t play off-ball and thus need the ball, teams are going to go under basically every pick-and-roll at the point of attack, which limits the options available to offenses in creating advantage situations.

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Fox’s shooting numbers place him squarely in non-shooter territory, converting just 5 of 34 3-pointers this year and seeing his free-throw percentage drop to almost 72 percent on 96 total attempts. This is redundant information at this point: low volume on 3-point attempts with minus efficiency does not create a projectable shot at the next level. Fox’s form is not broken, and he could absolutely benefit from leg and core strength especially to shoot from longer distances, but it’s easy to see him really struggling with the transition to the NBA 3-point line. If Fox can’t shoot 3s, he’ll need an avenue to score in the league, as you rarely find starting level lead guards who can’t score from any of the three levels on the court. For Fox, a lot of his success will depend on his finishing acumen.

What might separate Fox from players like Emmanuel Mudiay and Elfrid Payton is his outlier speed and burst with the ball, to pair with potential finishing craft. Fox might be fast enough to beat his defenders to the corner even if they duck under screens, enabling a mechanism to score if he can finish. To start the year, Fox’s finishing wasn’t especially advanced or impressive in the half-court. He has a slender build and isn’t explosive off one foot in traffic like a Dennis Smith type. He can really explode in the open court, but in a half-court setting around bodies he just doesn’t have that ability to convert his speed to explosive power, meaning craftiness is paramount. He didn’t show that advanced craft early, but in conference play of late, he has shown interesting progression.

Here, he shows a good change of speed keeping the defender in jail out of a pick-and-roll, and displays excellent footwork to navigate his way around the bigs to finish off his right foot protecting the ball from the shot-block.

Fox again shows plus footwork and patience on the up-and-under move, double-clutching and finishing with good touch.

This is one of Fox’s most impressive finishes, as he shows outstanding body control to hang in the air, jumping around the rotating big to convert.

Even with that adjustment to counter the rim contest, that shot likely gets blocked on the next level as Fox uses his left instead of protecting the attempt with his right. That is a noticeable issue with Fox: coming back to his left hand when he drives right, and he’ll need to develop that right hand to have the requisite ambidexterity to fully unleash his finishing potential.

The following clip contains another crucial element of Fox’s potential success as a finisher: his side-to-side agility with the ball. This is a straight-forward straight-line drive, but Fox’s side-to-side agility as a slasher is evidenced by his ability to step around the big rotating for the contest.

Fox doesn’t have the hip flexibility or contortion ability of a Markelle Fultz, but his ability to change direction east-west and navigate around bodies at the rim with elite quickness seems like it could be projectable for him.

Of course, Fox will still struggle finishing through contact until he develops more core strength. He finishes here, but gets dislodged by the big and again comes back to his left hand attacking right.

Fox has also showcased decent touch on his floater, another paramount component to his finishing toolbox.

Floaters are typically low percentage shots that defenses live with, but on the NBA level just the threat of a respectable floater alters the way defenses (especially the big in drop-back pick-and-roll situations) scheme.

To pair with his enhanced finishing ability and floater game, Fox has shown at least a modicum of success in the dribble pull-up game from around the foul line, especially in the game against Vanderbilt.

We know Fox can defend at the point of attack with his lightning quick reactionary athleticism and he can really push the pace in transition, showing fantastic footwork there on eurosteps and other dribble moves in large spaces. If Fox can develop his finishing prowess in tighter spaces in half-court settings, he might have enough of an avenue to score where he becomes a more viable bet than typical non-shooters of his archetype.

He’s kicked his 2-point finishing up to 61.8 percent over 5 conference games, upping his season total to 53.3 percent. If this development holds, his combination of plus first step, elite burst and modicum of finishing could afford him two-way value on a good NBA team. Unless his shot really develops however, it’s hard to see him ever being a significant contributor on a title contender.

Stock Up: Miles Bridges’ shooting versatility

After suffering through an inefficient start to the season and follow-up ankle injury, Bridges is starting to turn the corner in conference play, looking like the explosive big-space-killing dynamo we thought he could be to start the year. As our own JZ Mazlish outlined in-depth, a lot of Bridges’ future success relies on his jump-shooting prowess.

In four games of conference play, Bridges is 6 for 12 on 3-pointers and 6 for 6 from the line. This is unquestionably too small of a sample to analyze, but it’s more about how is he making his shots that is more intriguing.

From the eye-test, early in the year it appeared Bridges made numerous trail 3s like this example against Minnesota.

Recently however, there has been more impressive simulations of valuable NBA-level playtypes, mainly shooting on the move. Here, Bridges sets his feet after coming off a pin-down screen out of a typical NBA “Horns” pick-and-roll action, burying the jumper.

Again, Bridges converts on the move coming off a screen, setting his feet on the 1-2 on a baseline out-of-bounds action.

This is a more traditional pick-and-roll spot-up attempt, but watch Bridges rotate up towards the ball-handler to lessen the air-time of the pass and knock down the shot.

The above spot-up attempt is very akin to the kind of shot a typical NBA 4 takes out of spread pick-and-roll, requiring some movement and a quick release to get the shot off over a closeout.

Bridges doesn’t have the most fluid release. He doesn’t get a lot of elevation on his shot, and it’s a bit mechanical at the top. He also faces the issue of being only 6-foot-7, making it more difficult to get off high volume 3s over closeouts on the next level if he ever becomes enough of a gravitational threat to warrant contests. But if Bridges’ shot is respectable, and frankly, that’s an enormous if, it unlocks his difference-making and potential team-changing scheme potential.

Bridges projects to thrive in an Aaron Gordon-like big space player role as a 4, where he can either explode to finish around the basket or play-make on the move for teammates. He has a plus first step, and enough of a handle to navigate his way to the basket in large spaces, as evidenced by this blow-by.

We know about the explosive finishes, but Bridges also puts impressive ambidextrous and body control flashes on film as a slasher, such as this reverse finish with his right.

I’m very skeptical of Bridges’ shot, as we’ve seen too many times how a negative free-throw indicator might be damning to shot translation. Bridges is now 62.5 percent from the line on the year, but on a mere 32 total attempts. He’s also 21 of 51 on 3-pointers, 41.2 percent on the season. These are conflicting indicators, which lead you to lean toward the skeptical side when paired with his non-fluid mechanics.

That being said, Bridges’ shooting and scoring efficiency are up in conference play as he has gotten healthier, and when you consider he’s playing a role usage-wise as a primary creator beyond the likely scope of the role he’ll play at the next level, there is reason to expect his efficiency will increase even more if optimally used. The arrow is pointing up for the explosive Bridges.

Stock Up: Donovan Mitchell’s shooting efficiency

Over the course the season, the player with the biggest eye-test versus stats disparity for me has been Mitchell. Every time you watch him on film he shows you something intriguing, whether that is splitting a pick-and-roll against Indiana with good burst, showing nice vision on drop-offs or showing fluid mechanics as a shooter. Then, you look at the stats, and his inefficiency is just incredibly poor, sporting a 49.9 percent true shooting mark and a ghastly effective field goal percentage of 46.1 this season. It’s hard to reconcile.

In conference play over five games however, Mitchell’s 3-point shooting has turned a corner to the point you question if the mechanical improvements he’s displayed coupled with the career 76.1 percent free-throw mark on 113 attempts could be indicative of some shooting upside. He’s taken a legitimate 35 3-pointers in five conference games, knocking them down at a 37.1 percent clip. He’s still scoring inefficiently from inside the arc, but his long-range shot success and volume aligning with the eye-test is hard to ignore.

Mitchell shows good rhythm tendencies and preparatory footwork shooting off the catch off the hop when he takes shots in the flow of the offense.

He performs a pretty significant ball dip here, but his release is compact in the front of his face and he shows good wrist action on the follow-through.

Again, we see those same consistent mechanics with a similar ball dip, this time converting over a legitimate closeout with range.

Mitchell also flashes the ability to shoot off the dribble, where he elevates here over Jayson Tatum’s delayed contest out of pick-and-roll.

From the eye-test, Mitchell is a rhythm and confidence-based shooter and scorer. When he sees the ball go in that success tends to snowball. Like many players, when he presses and tries to force the issue, his shot selection and efficiency numbers suffer. In a more refined role, there could be shooting potential here, which really makes Mitchell an interesting player.

Mitchell’s frame, athleticism, defensive prowess and steal rate are all subjects for a more in-depth scouting report, but needless to say he has a workable avenue to being a moderately versatile and plus defender at the next level. He also has legitimate ball-skills, showing comfort operating in the pick-and-roll with above average burst to dribble penetrate and enough handling prowess to do so in a secondary role. This display of vision on the drop-off coming off the dribble hand-off is no joke.

Overall, if Mitchell can build off his momentum in the Indiana game (I highly recommend watching this) that has spilled over into his early conference play, we could be talking about a very interesting potential two-way secondary handler rotation-caliber player at the next level.

Stock Down: Josh Jackson’s shooting/scoring decline

This point doesn’t require a video breakdown, as everyone is familiar with Jackson’s shooting struggles. Unfortunately, over six conference games his shooting efficiency has been as bad as ever.

We know this though. Waiting for shooting improvement with Jackson is foolhardy because his two-part form is broken and will require reconstruction at the next level. The regression efficiency-wise with dips to 47.7 true shooting and 43.8 effective field goal percentage is still disconcerting from an overall scoring perspective. Big 12 defenses have better adjusted to Jackson being a non-spacing threat, and that will only be extrapolated on the NBA level, where teams ruthlessly draw out the weaknesses in their opposition.

I’m still very fond of Jackson, as he brings basically everything you’d ever want from his position to the wing spot with one glaring hole. He’s a devastating passer on the move, has feathery touch inside to provide him an avenue to score and is a potential defensive versatility monster who brings a high motor and intensity to the position which few star players possess. But he needs to be used on-ball in a creator role and play a lot of 4 to fully capitalize on his defense and playmaking ability to fully optimize his value where he’s going to be drafted.

Stock Down: Harry Giles’ slow recovery  

I don’t want to jump to brash conclusions, as Giles deserves more time to reacclimatize on the floor and start trusting his body again. But the early returns of his diminished vertical athleticism and insane lack of timing aren’t promising, and his negatives have only grown more transparent with increased minutes in six conference games.

You can draw on numerous examples of Giles just not looking right on the court yet. All you have to do is look to their most recent outing against Louisville to see that.

Here, Giles is caught in an awkward no man’s land position defending the pick-and-roll, ultimately allowing dribble penetration without a hedge and when he ultimately rotates down to the opposing big man, he doesn’t have the vertical pop to contest the jump hook.

Giles’ rim protection has been anemic this year, as his timing has been outlier poor and he just doesn’t seem to have that same elevation as he once had. Where he should be able to excel is mobility wise defending in space, and even there outside of quick-twitch agility stints he looks poor reacting. Here, he is extremely slow to hedge and recover, leading to an easy basket.

And here there is no real hedge at all, again being trapped in no-man’s land not looking comfortable reacting.

Again, you can pick out just about any angle to illuminate Giles’ struggles, which outside of rebounding have been pretty evident across the board. He has immense hypothetical talent, but unless his athleticism returns and his confidence improves he might be better off staying another year at Duke.

Stock Down: Jawun Evans’ scoring inefficiency

Evans projects as a dynamic backup pick-and-roll lead guard with some starter upside if he can score and shoot efficiently, but his start to conference play has not been inspiring. He’s sporting 41.7 true shooting percentage and 32.1 effective field goal percentage marks, both outlier poor. One of the main critiques of his game has been his low volume 3-point shooting and how both his ability to get shots off at his size as well as his range proficiency will translate. At just 3 for 13 on 3-pointers in conference play, neither the volume nor the efficiency is there.

Next: Prospect Calibration: Denzel Valentine lives

Evans has an enormous creation burden at Oklahoma State, and has suffered through foul trouble in conference play. But he’s already fighting an uphill battle at his size and he doesn’t have Kemba Walker’s speed or burst to compensate. There is a chance this is just a scoring rut, but it can’t be ignored all the same.