FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 23
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 78 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.3 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Patrick Beverley ($5,600) Beverley and the Rockets take on a Bucks team on Monday night with a combined team total of 228 which is the highest of any game on this nine game slate. These two teams faced off against each other just a few games ago and Beverley had one of his best performances of the season!
In that game, Beverley racked up 12 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals on his way to 37.3 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.6x value at this price point. On this slate, I want to get as much exposure to this game as I can and I love the upside that Beverley provides in this high scoring match-up!
Austin Rivers ($5,400) With Chris Paul on the sidelines and Raymond Felton now moved to the bench, Rivers will continue to get the opportunity to run the point for the Clippers. In his last two games without CP3, Rivers has put up 25 FanDuel points per game and gets a great match-up tonight against a Hawks team that is giving up the 6th most fantasy points per game.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($11,900) & Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) Looking over this slate, I am looking to target the Rockets-Bucks game with a 228 combined team total and 4 point Vegas spread and will start my rosters with the two top stars on the court!
In this match-up just a few games ago, Harden put up 38 points, 8 assists and 6 rebounds for 59.2 FanDuel points and considering that Milwaukee is 26th in DvP to opposing SG’s, this is a great spot to fire him up again!
Antetokounmpo in that same game was able to rack up 32 points, 11 rebounds and 6 assists on his way to 58.2 FanDuel points, matching Harden point for point!Even early on in the day, we have enough clear value on the board that we can aggressively target both superstars as core plays in our lineup that will allow us an elite floor with GPP winning upside!
Interestingly, their last match-up was also played on a nine game slate so we can look back at their ownership percentages to get an idea of what GPP ownership was. That night Giannis was 31% owned while Harden was 23% and that combination was found on the winning GPP lineups. If we can hit on our value plays tonight, we could be looking for a similar outcome!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Joe Ingles ($3,900) OK I know the man is not the sexiest DFS pick, but in three straight games without Rodney Hood all the man has done is play 33+ minutes/night and has exceeded 6x value in each contest! Assuming Hood misses this contest with Oklahoma City on Monday night, feel free to fire up Ingles again as one of the best GPP bargain plays on the board.
Sam Dekker ($4,300) Although it is looking likely Ryan Anderson will return to the Rockets lineup tonight, it is hard to ignore the production that Dekker has put up in his recent games. Dekker has put up back to back 30+ FanDuel point games, exceeded 7x value in each contest including a start in place of Anderson against Memphis.
If Anderson is confirmed out, Dekker becomes a must play at SF however even if Anderson does suit up we can feel confident that Dekker will continue to get his 25-30 minutes per night. From a GPP perspective, Dekker will likely be highly owned if he gets the start so there is some intrigue here if Anderson does suit up which would likely lead people off Dekker and allow us to target him at reduced ownership.
At the same price point, Caris LeVert ($4,300) has quickly established he is one of the best players on the Brooklyn Nets and it would be wise for Kenny Atkinson to give the rookie more run based off his recent production! LeVert is averaging 26.6 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests which would exceed 6x value at this price point and makes for a nice GPP pivot off Dekker.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
David Lee ($5,100) With Paul Gasol out due to injury, David Lee has stepped into the starting lineup for the Spurs and has been absolutely terrific in his last two starts. Over these two games in the starting lineup, Lee has played 33 and 36 minutes and has consecutive double-double performances while racking up 32.7 and 36.2 FanDuel points in each game.
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The Spurs get one of the best match-ups on the board tonight as they take on a Nets team that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing Centers on the season. Assuming the Spurs do not rest any of their veterans tonight, fire up Lee tonight as one of the best point per dollar plays at PF!
Marreese Speights ($4,500) Speights entered the starting lineup for the Clippers in their last game and responded with 25.6 FanDuel points over 28 minutes which would exceed 5.6x value at this price point. Speights is more of a boom/bust GPP play due to his inconsistent role in the Clippers rotation but he has flashed 40 FanDuel point upside just three games ago and if he is confirmed in the starting lineup tonight, he makes for a great bargain option that allows you to target upside with significant salary savings.
Perhaps my favorite PF on the night however is Thaddeus Young ($5,700) who faces a Knicks team he has already dominated twice this season. Young has posted 6x value in both contests this season against New York as he put up 39.8 and 34.9 FanDuel points. I love the idea of pairing Young/Lee tonight at PF as it allows you to lock in two 35 point producers for under $6k each!
Hassan Whiteside ($8,500) Whiteside has struggled recently, failing to top 40 FanDuel points in five of his last six contests however he exploded for 55 FanDuel points in that one game against the same Warriors team he faces tonight. In that contest, Whiteside was a monster and was able to rack up 26 points and 20 rebounds against the Warriors front line.
If you are looking for a pivot play, Rudy Gobert ($8,100) gets to face a Thunder team that will be without Steven Adams again and should be able to dominate an undersized Oklahoma City team!
UPDATE: Clint Capela has been confirmed as the starting Center tonight for the Rockets and at $4,800 is a great bargain option if we can get any further clarity on his minutes. In 21 minutes against the Warriors, Capela put up 22 points, 12 rebounds and 39.9 FanDuel points so their is solid GPP appeal here!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!