FanDuel EPL Fantasy Daily Picks – February 4 2017
By David Gate
Premier League action continues with 7 games on Saturday’s main slate for FanDuel EPL DFS. Read on for analysis, picks and lineups.
The aim of these articles is to provide FanDuel EPL DFS players with an edge through delving into stats and news to give your lineup the best possible chance of making money on FanDuel. I will also be doing the same for DraftKings. While a lot of information will be applicable to both sites I will tailor lineups according each site’s scoring systems.
It is crucial to remember that, unlike US sports, the EPL has no official injury reports or designations. The information is usually out there but it is not as simple as looking for an official report. There is also a high amount of rotation within the squads meaning there are often surprises on the team sheets. Teams release their lineups 45 minutes to an hour before kick off – which will be around 9am ET on Saturday. It is paramount you check these team sheets before you finalize your lineup. The DFS sites won’t list designations as accurately as they do for NFL or NBA sports as a player could be on the bench. I will list changes to my DFS lineups on Twitter at @DavidGateSports and @FantasyCPR
The key to all DFS sports is value. Getting the most points out of every dollar spent. The EPL contests are still quite new to these sites but it seems that 4 points for every $1k of budget will be a high scoring lineup.
My picks are ranked out of three stars for each position to give you an idea of how confident I am in that pick.
* One Star = high floor players who will get adequate value
** Two Stars = players with a higher upside and good match up
*** Three Stars = excellent pick with a strong match up
FanDuel EPL Goalkeepers
There are two keepers on Saturday that should prove very busy. Víctor Valdés (6500)*** will be a facing a Tottenham team that have a league leading 20.5 shots per game at home. They also are first in shots on target at home (7.5) and take a whooping 50% of their shots from outside of the box – which are easier for goalkeepers to save.
The highest scoring goalkeeper in the midweek games was Hull’s Eldin Jakupovic (6400)*** and he’ll plenty of opportunity to repeat again on Saturday. Hull concede 18.3 shots pg to visiting teams (18th) and Liverpool led the league in shots and shots on target in away games. The only downside here is that Liverpool have lacked form and attacking fluidity but with Mane, Coutinho and Henderson all returning to fitness promises enough here to help Jakupovic rack up the stats.
If you are chasing the clean sheet bonus then I would look to Tom Heaton (7400)* and Heurelho Gomes(6100)** as they face off at Vicarage Road. Both Burnley and Watford are sitting nicely in mid-table and neither team has a prolific attack. With Gomes playing at home and significantly cheaper I will be higher on the Watford stopper.
There could be real value to find in the Tottenham lineup if Vorm (5700)** starts and Lloris (6200)* isn’t healthy enough to return. Whoever starts is primed for a clean sheet with Middlesborough bottom of scoring table with 19 goals and ranking 20th shots per game. Vorm is perhaps the best GK deputy in the league and kept a clean sheet on Tuesday. This pick is simply a clean sheet bonus chase as I don’t expect either keeper to have opportunity for many saves.
FanDuel EPL Defenders
At the top of the DEF slate is Liverpool’s vice captain James Milner (7900)**. His eye-watering price would rank him 5th for midfielders so normally I would recommend avoiding him but if ever there was a game to go for him, it is this one. Hull led the league in penalties conceded, giving away two to Liverpool earlier in the year which were both converted by Milner as he helped himself to 50+ FanDuel points. With all of Liverpool’s attacking options available there is real potential here for another good points total.
On the other side of the pitch Hull defenders Michael Dawson (6500)*** and Harry Maguire(6400)** offer very solid options to make their 4x point/price mark. Centre backs playing good attacking teams have been consistent bets all year and with Liverpool being vulnerable to goals at corners and free kicks they may even chip in with a goal. I rank Dawson slightly higher because Maguire should be more highly rostered as the form player but I think their defensive potential are equal with Dawson posing the greater goal threat.
Looking for value further down the list I still like Mason Holgate (5100)** who has established himself in a very good Everton backline keeping out club captain Jagielka. Bournemouth are unusual in that they play with two out-and-out strikers meaning the three Everton center backs should all be busy. While his price stays under $5.5k I will keep picking him.
One under the radar pick I’m watching is Brad Smith(4700)** of Bournemouth. He returned from injury last week to reclaim his left back spot. This week he faces Everton who favor to take from the right side 41% of the time (2nd). There could be fantastic value here if he starts as it shapes up for a busy afternoon for the Australian youngster.
Tottenham’s Danny Rose is predicted to miss the game against Middlesbrough making Ben Davies (5100)** a good value pick in his stead. Only red flag here is that it is the late 12:30pm ET game so we won’t have confirmed team sheets. We will have a better idea tomorrow but every report is expecting Davies to start.
FanDuel EPL Midfielders
With Tottenham and Liverpool in strong matchups the top of the Midfield options is littered with their players. For Spurs I favor Christian Ericksen (10400)*** over Dele Alli (9100)* after the Englishman laid a dud against Sunderland. The Middlesborough defense should play deeper making it harder for Alli to get in the box to grab a goal and favoring Ericksen to shoot from long-range.
The Liverpool midfield is current overpriced so I’m avoiding most of them with except Sadio Mane (9100)**. The Senegalese attacker should make his first start after returning from the Africa Cup of Nations. Liverpool have looked much weaker with him missing and I’m expecting them to try to feed him often to get their stuttering attack firing again.
My top pick of the day is Morgan Scheiderlin (5000)*** who I backed midweek and performed remarkably in his first start for Everton. He managed to gain 30.5 FanDuel points from midfield without a goal or an assist! That is an incredible stat base to work from and will be the anchor of the Everton midfield going forward. The last time he was playing regularly at Southampton he ranked as a top 10 fantasy midfielder before his unhappy move to Man Utd. I am expecting his price to rise to $7-8K over the next month so ride him while he is cheap.
Southampton’s midfield promises to have a good day against West Ham who were routed by Man City on Wednesday night. While Southampton don’t have the same star quality as City they play in a similar style – possession based short passing in the center with pace on the wings. Oriol Romeu (5900)** is always a high floor pick but has the potential for a higher ceiling than usual in this match up. The pace out wide of Sane and Sterling terrorized the West Ham in Game Week 23 and I expect the speedy Nathan Redmond (6800)** to match up well against the sluggish Aaron Cresswell.
The other midfielders I’m high on this week are Yohan Cabaye (6400)** and Kevin Mirallas (5900)**. Both of these players represent relatively high floors with high upsides. They both play at home and have good matchups against Sunderland and Bournemouth. The biggest ceiling in this range belongs to Wilfried Zaha (6500)*** who projects highly as a goal threat.
FanDuel Forwards
The top ranking forwards all rate as fair starts this weekend. Harry Kane(12300)** has been very good at home but I think Middlesbrough will fill the box and make it hard for the England striker to get any space. Roberto Firmino(11800)** has the best matchup and the highest floor due to his hard-working contributions to the midfield. Lukaku (10600)** also should fair well at home to Bournemouth. Though his poor showing in the last two games should give you some caution.
My picks are drawn to the value in the next tier of forwards this weekend. Palace and Sunderland face up in a bottom of the table clash which both teams would have earmarked as a must win game. It poses a classic ‘6 point’ relegation battle. I’m hoping this will be an end to end game with lots of opportunities so I am going high on both Christian Benteke (8300)*** and Jermaine Defoe (7800)***. After dropping two stinkers in a row Defoe’s prick has dipped under $8k for the first time and I really like him at that price. He is the only real goal threat on the team and the designated penalty taker.
There is little I like anywhere in the Stoke @ West Brom game with the exception of Saido Berahino (6800)**. He didn’t start on Wednesday but the reports are he has looked sharp in training and is ready to go if called upon. If he does make the starting lineup tomorrow expect him to shine. He is returning to former club West Brom where he had an acrimonious last two years as he agitated for a move away from The Hawthorns. This will be a revenge game for the pacey England striker in which he’ll be eager to prove himself. Look out for him on the team sheet.
My FanDuel EPL Lineups
Lineup 1:
FWD: Benteke – Crystal Palace
FWD: Defoe – Sunderland
MID: Mane – Liverpool
MID: Eriksen – Tottenham
MID: Schneiderlin – Everton
DEF: Maguire – Hull
DEF: Coleman – Everton
GK: Valdes – Middlesbrough
Lineup 2:
FWD: Firmino – Liverpool
FWD: Kane – Tottenham
MID: Romeu – Southampton
MID: Zaha – Crystal Palace
MID: Schneiderlin – Everton
DEF: Bernando – Middlesbrough
DEF: Dawson – Hull
GK: Jakupovic – Hull
Best of luck today in your FanDuel EPL contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!