DraftKings NBA Picks for February 15
Tonight we have the largest player pool of the year for our main DraftKings tournament. Only the Bulls and Wizards are off tonight, which creates a chaotic slate with so many great plays are bargains that there are going to be literally thousands of different lineups. Let’s take a look at this from the statistical angle, shall we?
Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Stephen Curry ($9,600): Honestly, I don’t like any of the matchups for the high priced point guards tonight. And even the ones that have good matchups have dropped the kind of line that would ruin your entire lineup within the last two or three games. Curry is a little more reliable. He fits that last criteria, but he has 110.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Kings. Let’s face it: if Curry is held to the 30’s, you still have a fighting chances whereas if Harden or Westbrook do, you are sunk at that price tag.
Kemba Walker ($7,600): Walker is not without pitfalls as well. He did well against Philadelphia on Monday, so maybe his cold streak is over. He picked up 118.5 DraftKings points in two games against Toronto earlier this year. I would much rather roll the dice with Walker than pay for one of the five figure guys.
Damian Lillard ($7,800): Utah is a tough test for guards, but Lillard torched them for 59.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. Lillard does have at least 5x value in seven of the last ten games with his price this low though. That helps offset the risk, and makes him an enticing option even on a crowded slate.
Jeff Teague ($7,400): Teague has 95.25 DraftKings points in two games against Cleveland so far this year. Point guards have generally fared well against the Cavs. Teague put up 54.25 DraftKings points on them exactly a week ago. He is a bargain if he can do it again.
Ricky Rubio ($7,300): Rubio put up 45 DraftKings points on the Nuggets in the first meeting, and that was with Zach LaVine still in the lineup. Rubio’s numbers have been up a touch with LaVine sidelined. He has topped 40 DraftKings points in four of the five games. He will flirt with that mark again at worst.
Jameer Nelson ($6,000): Nelson has played so well with Emmanuel Mudiay out that the Nuggets may have to rethink the depth chart after the break. Nelson has 118.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. The Timberwolves have been tougher against guards lately, but for this price, Nelson isn’t much of a risk.
George Hill ($5,800): Hill racked up 36.5 DraftKings points in the first game against Portland. The Blazers haven’t gotten any better on the perimeter, so Hill should have similar success tonight. He has been a strong performer in favorable matchups.
Tyler Johnson ($5,100): Johnson has at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. He picked up 29.5 DraftKings points in the first tilt with Houston. Goran Dragic had a good game in that one as well, but Johnson should be close to 6x value and provide much needed salary relief.
My picks: Teague(PG); Rubio(PG), Johnson(G)
Will Barton ($7,300): His price is too high for him to be a huge bargain anymore, but the way it’s looking, Barton is likely to draw another start. The Nuggets really have no reason to bring Mudiay and his balky back back before the break. Same thing with Danilo Gallinari‘s groin. Keep an eye on the status of Wilson Chandler, but if he is out again, Barton borders on a must-play.
Devin Booker ($7,200): Booker has at least established a solid floor, which is progress. It was like playing roulette using him earlier in the season. The Lakers gave up 78 DraftKings points in two games too Booker earlier this year. His established floor looks to be around 25 points, which is still a slight risk, but the upside here against the Lakers is enough to take the shot.
Dion Waiters ($7,000): Waiters was solid in his return on Monday night, showing no ill effects from the ankle while putting up 36 DraftKings points. He has not been below 29 DraftKings points since the middle of January, which makes Waiters a pretty low risk option tonight.
Klay Thompson ($6,500): We are willing to overlook all of the warning signs with Klay when he plays the Kings, and with good reason. He has torched them nearly every meeting over the last three years. Thompson says he is playing, but we will see what the Warriors do. If this game gets out of hand early, Thompson will sit more than usual. That makes him a little bit more of a risk than usual.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,000): Hardaway has averaged 34 DraftKings points per game with Thabo Sefalosha out. It looks increasingly likely that the Hawks are going to hold him out again leading into the break, which could leave this as the last chance to get some bargain out of Hardaway for a while.
Lou Williams ($5,800): Williams has torched the Suns so far this year. In two games, while playing only a total of 60 minutes, LouWill has 78.75 DraftKings points against him. They don’t really have an answer for the sharpshooter off the bench, so look for Williams to have another game beyond his price level.
Austin Rivers ($5,100): Rivers is still starting in place of Chris Paul, but he hasn’t raised the bar much as far as price goes. He has hit 5x value in seven of the last ten games though, and he beat up on the Hawks for 41.5 DraftKings points in their first meeting. He has the capability to have games like that, but temper your expectations. This offense flows through Griffin right now.
Kent Bazemore ($5,000): Bazemore has actually outplayed Hardaway over the last couple of games. He has averaged 28.3 DraftKings points over the last three games. If Sefalosha returns, his value takes a huge hit, but at this point, that doesn’t look likely. I don’t really have a fear of anyone being highly owned tonight, but Bazemore should be less owned than Hardaway for about the same amount of production.
Monta Ellis ($3,700): Ellis is working his way back into the fold. He has averaged 28 minutes over the last four games, and has put up an average of 23 DraftKings points a game in that span. In two games against the Cavs this year, Ellis has 55 DraftKings points in 58 minutes. He looks likely to hit 6x value for the fifth consecutive game.
My pick: Williams(SG); Rivers(SG)
Kawhi Leonard ($8,900): Leonard struggled some against the Magic in their first meeting, but his production has really taken off since Pau Gasol went down. He has not been under 40 DraftKings points in that span, which gives him a nice, high floor.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,900): I was one of the few that was off Wiggins last night due to his struggles against Cleveland earlier in the season. If you played Wiggy, you made money. He went nuts on the Cavs last night. He is averaging 35.7 DraftKings points in three games against Denver this year. Wiggins has really upped his game with Zach LaVine out. Don’t look for his hot streak to end anytime soon.
Paul George ($7,900): George is averaging just 0.4 less DraftKings points per game head to head against LeBron James at a much lower price. For whatever reason, the King hasn’t been able to contain George. Those just looking at the stats may overlook George tonight. I think I’m rolling with him again!
Wilson Chandler ($6,700): If Chandler plays, he looks like a strong play in our lineups as well. Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur, and Gallinari are all still out, so Chandler will gain another start if he is able to go. I would imagine that if Chandler is not healthy enough to start that Denver wont use him unless they have to. If he starts, he should be fine. If not, I really like Will Barton.
Dario Saric ($5,800): There have been plenty of minutes to go around with Joel Embiid out again and Noel and Okafor unable to stay on the floor at the same time. Robert Covington has picked up a lot of the slack. The rest has gone to Saric, who has 6x value or better in seven of the last eight games. The secret is out now, but his price is still too low. He has 57.25 DraftKings points in two games against Boston this year averaging 25 minutes. He has played more than that in each of the last three games.
Harrison Barnes ($5,700): Wesley Matthews has hit 5x value in eight of the last nine games, but Detroit has been tough on him. Barnes had 31.75 DraftKings points against Detroit in the first meeting, and has reached at least 5x value in three of the last four games.
Marcus Morris ($5,200): Why deal with the maddening inconsistency, albeit better upside, of Tobias Harris when you can have the consistency of Morris? Morris had 25.5 DraftKings points against Dallas the first time. Morris has averaged 32 DraftKings points per game over the last seven. He is finally comfortable with his role here, and is now one of the safer options at this price point.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,400): MIlwaukee’s defense at the position has improved slightly as Middleton’s minutes have, but Middleton is still on a strict minutes limit. That means that Bogdanovic will have to deal with him for maybe half of his court time. Bogdanovic averaged 29.1 DraftKings points over three games against the Bucks earlier this year. He should come close to that here.
Khris Middleton ($3,900): Brooklyn has not been good against small forwards either. Middleton likely wont play more than 24 minutes since he hasn’t gone over 21 yet, but he has looked good on the court so far. Middleton has averaged 17 DraftKings points in 18 minutes per game since his return. He looks good for 5x value, but his upside is severely capped so long as his minutes are.
My Pick: George(SF), Saric(F), Bogdanovic(G); Saric(SF), Morris(UTIL)
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,300): If you pay for any of the top tier tonight, it should be Cousins. He struggled with the Warriors when Zaza Pachulia was on the floor. In the last outing with Javale McGee in the middle instead, Cousins racked up 64.5 DraftKings points on them. Cousins has a real shot at 6x value tonight, which is tough to find in this price range.
Blake Griffin ($9,500): Griffin has been as hot as anyone lately. He even went over 50 DraftKings points on the stingy Jazz interior on Monday. Griffin has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. If you decide to fade Cousins, Blake could be nearly his equal tonight.
Paul Millsap ($7,900): Millsap put up 48.5 DraftKings points on the Clippers earlier this year, but Griffin did not play in that game. Is that enough to consider staying off of MIllsap? You could make a case for it, but Millsap has been over 5x value in each of the last three games.
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,500): Porzingis had 44.75 DraftKings points on the Thunder earlier this year, and that was with Enes Kanter in the lineup. Porzingis is finally getting back to where he was before injury, as he has hit more than 5x value twice in the last three games. I would be surprised if he didn’t tonight against the skeleton crew that is the Oklahoma City power forwards.
Nerlens Noel ($6,100): Noel has received more run with Embiid sidelined again and Jahlil Okafor under the weather and/or part of a potential trade. He picked up 36 DraftKings points in only 24 minutes in the first game against Boston. If he starts, play him!
James Johnson ($6,100): Johnson picked up 38 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Houston. He continues to be a driving force off the bench for the Heat, and has only missed 5x value three times in the last 13 games. His value is capped a bit since he comes off the bench, but we have seen him crack 40 three times during that span as well.
Michael Beasley ($5,500): Beasley has averaged 28.2 DraftKings points a game since Jabari Parker went down. Beastley looks to be the starter, at least until Khris Middleton can take the job away from him. However, considering how he played against the supposedly strong Pistons up front, he could continue starting beyond that if he builds on Monday’s performance.
Derrick Favors ($5,100): The Blazers were already the worst team in the league against power forwards, and now it looks as though Al-Farouq Aminu will be out tonight. That leaves Favors with Noah Vonleh trying to defend him. Good luck with that. Favors could have a huge game.
Channing Frye ($5,000): Frye’s price jumped without Love in there, but he is the greatest bargain on the board tonight, and it really isn’t close. He will be very highly owned, but he has a shot at 8x value. Who else can boast that?
Juancho Hernangomez ($4,600): Hernangomez was a huge part of Denver’s outside assault on Golden State on Monday. While he may never hit 50 DraftKings points again, he should still have a large role on this team with all of the injuries, and only needs half that total to hit 5x value. He looks like a strong value play again.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($4,000): His transition to power forward has gone well, thank you. His rebounding ability has kept him over 5x value, but he has also become a larger part of the offense. RHJ hit at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. He is a strong play against the Bucks tonight.
My pick: Frye(PF); Johnson(PF), Frye(F)
Nikola Jokic ($10,300): We all know that Towns is mostly a matador on defense, but Jokic has been abusing everyone. Even the normally tough Golden State interior had problems with him. Jokic has hit 5x value in each of the last three games after he worked his way back from a sore hip. It’s all but a given that he hits that tonight, even at this price.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200): Towns has averaged 58.4 DraftKings points in three games against Denver so far this year. He has at least 5x value in 10 of the last 12 games. There are no worries here to Towns hitting his value, though it is harder for him to go over 5x value at this price.
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond struggled against Dallas in the first game, but that was with Andrew Bogut. Bogut is out, so Dallas is a little less stout on the interior. Drummond has also hit at least 5x value nine times in the last 11 games. He is a nice mid-range option if you are trying to build a balanced lineup.
Marc Gasol ($7,500): It surprises me that Gasol is still this cheap. He has racked up 111 DraftKings points in just two games with the Pelicans this year. Gasol has had several games this year when he has gone over 60 DraftKings points. It is rare to find that kind of potential for this price, and even more rare to find him in a matchup where it is better than a 50-50 chance of it happening.
Frank Kaminsky ($6,000): The Hornets have decided to hold out Cody Zeller through the All Star break, so Frank the Tank will get one more start. He put up 53.75 DraftKings points in just 44 minutes in the first two meetings with the Raptors. He could have a huge game tonight because he will play at least 30 minutes.
Tristan Thompson ($5,500): Thompson’s production does go up without Kevin Love next to him, but Channing Frye has a lot more value. Still, several centers have had big games against the Pacers. Playing an all Cleveland frontcourt is not the worst idea of the night.
Greg Monroe ($5,400): Yes, John Henson starts. Yes, Roy Hibbert and Spencer Hawes are lurking. However, it has been Monroe that has been the most successful lately. He has 89.25 DraftKings points over the last two games, and could really abuse the Nets if given the chance. Just be aware that anyone except Giannis Antetokounmpo could be a risk with Jason Kidd‘s change on a whim rotations.
Donatas Motiejunas ($3,000): With both Terrence Jones and Dante Cunningham out, it will either be Alexis Ajinca or Motiejunas who gets the start. At any rate, Motiejunas is a lot less inept on offense, and therefore a better dice roll. Just keep in mind that he has a tough matchup with Memphis.
My pick: Gasol(C), Kaminsky(UTIL); Jokic(C)
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