Prospect Calibration: Is Jahlil Okafor salvageable?

The Sam Hinkie infused “process movement” has been an incredibly divisive point across mainstream NBA coverage. However, treatment of one of the players in that movement, Jahlil Okafor, has been the polar opposite in being viewed with almost unanimous agreement. Okafor is the poster boy for the anti-analytical big man in an analytical age, one who is viewed as a post-up five who doesn’t space the floor or defend. He is rejected by almost every advanced statistic indicative of contributing to winning basketball, and for good reason.

The rule changes in the league favor perimeter players, and factoring in league-wide trend development of going more pace-and-space and spread pick-and-roll, having bigs who can defend in space has become a necessity. There have been multiple studies about offensive versus defensive tradeoffs by position, and almost all of them say the same thing: defense is more important than offense for centers with a greater skew towards defense than any other position. Having a center who takes a sizable amount off the table on defense is basically untenable in the modern game. This is especially damning for Okafor, who rates out second to last in front of only Karl Anthony Towns in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.

Unlike Towns however, whose defensive numbers take a blow defending fours and who might be the best self-creating five of all time, Okafor doesn’t provide nearly that level of offensive value. If Okafor was the passer Nikola Jokic is (no one is), or if he could shoot 3s like Kristaps Porzingis, it would be a different story. Alas, he can not.

Read More: What will the Philadelphia 76ers pull off at the trade deadline?

As the Feb. 23 trade deadline approaches, multiple teams, including the Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans, have allegedly registered interest in Okafor, to the point that general manager Bryan Colangelo recently held Okafor out of games, possibly as a ploy to increase his trade value. With Okafor clearly on the market it’s worth asking what he’s worth, both now and in the hypothetical future? Let’s dive down this dark rabbit hole.

Okafor’s main redeeming attribute at his stage is his perimeter skill. He possesses a DeMarcus Cousins esque ability to handle in face-up isolation situations and a similarly powerful 270-pound frame to dislodge enemy bigs at the rim to convert shots. He’s not quite the nimble dancing bear that Cousins is, but Okafor is coordinated with advanced footwork and has good touch. He’s finishing an absurd 21.9 percent of his plays in isolation this year (ridiculous for a big man), sporting a respectable 1.0 point per possession efficiency mark, in the 78th percentile.

Here, he displays fluid footwork facing up with a nimble spin move to navigate his way around Nikola Vucevic to finish.

That’s a polished play for a 7-footer, both in terms of footwork and body control.

Okafor is by no means fast or explosive, instead relying on footwork and utilizing his body to create enough separation to finish over contests. Here, he comes off the pin-down screen, gives Vucevic a slight hesitation move to open up a driving lane, and is able to use his mass to finish through Vucevic at the rim.

Not a lot of bigs can handle the ball in the following fashion, as it’s rare to see through the leg dribbles and hesitations from a five.

Okafor can really eat up space with his dribble if given room in attacking situations, and when he builds momentum getting downhill, his frame allows for the easy dislodging of most bigs, as is the case with Dewayne Dedmon here.

It’s a commonly held position that Okafor’s best skill is his post-up ability, but really, it’s his handling fluidity and space-eating face-up game in creation settings that sets him apart.

Okafor has really nice touch on floaters and hook shots around the rim, and has the length extension with his long arms to release at a high apex, which is almost impossible to contest.

To compliment this dribble-drive and finishing on the move game, it’s crucial that Okafor develops a face-up jumper to keep defenders honest, unleashing his handling ability to get by closeouts. He gets good elevation on his shot for a big man, and again has the high release point to get shots off over behemoths like Andre Drummond.

There are only a handful of fives in the league who can pull up with this fluidly off the dribble, making Okafor incredibly difficult to guard in isolation settings.

With Okafor’s shooting mechanics, mainly the elevation he gets and how much goes into his shot input wise, it’s probably not projectable to push his range out beyond the 3-point line. He’s only attempted six 3s in his career, and there’s a reason for that: he doesn’t shoot an easy ball. But consistent range out to 18 feet seems possible, which unlocks a well-rounded scoring game for Okafor.

It’s an objectively fair assessment to rate Okafor as an advanced self-creating five from a scoring perspective, even though he still rates out as one of the worst offensive fives in the league. The question of course is, does he bring anything else to the table to compliment his face-up creation prowess and skilled post game?

Okafor was touted as a plus-passer by most coming into the draft, but on a closer look his indicators weren’t all that promising. If you adjust for usage his assist figures weren’t anything groundbreaking, and his assist-to-turnover ratio at Duke was a middling .52. Okafor also had a spaced floor in college, with Justise Winslow commanding the four spot surrounded by shooters like Tyus Jones. A lot of his reads out of the post were simple and reactive to obvious double-teams. He did not show a proclivity to pass on the move, lacking instinctive awareness there.

In the NBA, Okafor’s passing has regressed from mediocre to outright poor. He’s 45th amongst centers this season is assist ratio, and does not show the spacial awareness to even make simple reads in cases where he indeed decides to pass.

Here, Jae Crowder is a very easy read as the dig man in Okafor’s line of sight, where a kick-out to Robert Covington for a wide open 3 is the right decision. Instead, Okafor makes a poor decision with contested fadeaway airball.

There is just too much of this lackluster decision-making in Okafor’s game. He has a semblance of vision, but his decision-making sabotages his impact as a creator for others. Most good NBA teams use post-ups to create advantage situations via kick-outs to spot up shooters, a more high value shot than post-ups. Okafor can conceptually create these situations with his interior skill, but he lacks the passing chops to be impactful there, severely mitigating his utility as a potential playmaking fulcrum. Needless to say, if Okafor was a better passer his deficiencies in other areas would be easier to swallow. Unfortunately, he is closer to a black hole inside than an above-average playmaker.

Okafor is very skilled in some areas with legitimate positional size, a combination which helps him compensate some for his lack of athleticism. You know what really helps players of this make? Effort. Unfortunately, that’s not there with Okafor either.

If you watch Philadelphia consistently you’ll notice just how poor of a screen-setter Okafor is in pick-and-roll and on dribble hand-offs. Screen setting is mostly about diligence and effort, and Okafor’s frame and mass gives him conceptually a high ceiling in this area. There’s really just no excuse for him to not make contact on screens so often.

This isn’t the most damning example, as there are plays where he displays far less effort in situations where he’s closer to opposing guards to start in pick-and-roll settings, but it’s still disconcerting.

Okafor’s lack of effort or “motor” trickles over to defense especially. He too often gets beat down the court by bigs in transition, often times not even getting into the frame until it’s too late. Even when he does get back he lacks defensive instincts, like in the following clip where he just runs back to the paint without any recognition of who is unguarded.

Dario Saric clearly picks up Al Horford, Okafor’s man, and instead of running right to Kelly Olynyk to replace Saric, he runs back into no man’s land. When you pair lack of effort with poor instincts for a player with athletic limitations on defense, you create an untenable result at the five spot.

Another indicator of effort defensively is how hard you battle to make deep post catches more difficult in pushing players off their spots. Here, Okafor displays minimal effort, allowing an easy deep catch to Dedmon.

Armed with the positional size and plus length with a legitimate 7-foot-5 wingspan, Okafor again conceptually should be able to at least cause some damage as a rim protector despite his lack of lift.

You see flashes of actual big man defense, like in the following frame where Okafor identifies Tony Parker on the backcut and has the go-go-gadget arms to complete the reactionary block.

His almost 9-foot-3 standing reach can be an impediment at the basket, like in the following instance where he rotates over to block Olynyk from seeing the sun.

Unfortunately, Okafor just lacks the instincts recognizing coverages and the timing to channel his size and length into a positive around the basket. Players are shooting 50.6 percent around the rim with Okafor as a rim protector,which is actually a worse mark than Okafor’s rookie year. It’s not an outlier poor mark, but when paired with minus space defense it’s not a good enough number to compensate.

There are definitely athleticism and mobility concerns on the defensive side of the ball, however, that limit Okafor’s ceiling on that end apart from effort.

Simply put, Okafor is just effing slow. There’s a reason Isaiah Thomas publicly noted Boston’s strategy of putting Okafor in pick-and-roll every time they could. He can’t contain anyone in space, possessing sluggish foot-speed and the inability to both slide laterally or change direction north-south.

Watch how unnatural Okafor looks changing direction north-south on this closeout attempt in space on Olynyk.

Olynyk is far from fast and blows by Okafor with ease. Most fives of course aren’t adept closing out, but Okafor is even less so.

A lot of Okafor’s problems on defense revolve around poor stance. The lower you sink the more explosion and reactionary athletic ability you have. Okafor plays too high most of the time, which exacerbates his already minus mobility. Here, he shows a laughable stance and Olynyk again makes quick work of him in space.

Okafor’s slow-footedness and limited mobility are clearly seen off-ball across multiple fronts. He is dead in the water trying to help and recover or guarding a big running off a pin-down screen, a play becoming increasingly popular in today’s NBA. Here, Okafor’s lack of speed and agility dying on the pin-down leads to an easy Horford shot attempt.

Okafor is also finished in the following clip in a recovery situation, where his lack of defensive positioning and late reaction time are on display.

His biggest bugaboo of course is pick-and-roll defense. Okafor is strictly a “drop back” pick-and-roll defender due to his mobility limitations. That in itself is pretty damning, especially trying to combat bigs who can shoot or lead guards who can make scheme changing 3-point shots. Having a big who can’t guard in space puts so much pressure on lead guards especially to navigate around screens to contain guards either building up momentum to attack or pulling up. We’ve seen this construct work with George Hill in Indiana paired with drop-back limited Roy Hibbert, but Hibbert’s dynamic rim protection made that more palatable.

From the simplest level, Okafor just doesn’t have the ability to contain lead guards in space in pick-and-roll, like in the following instance with Thomas (although Thomas misses here).

His lack of rotation speed and poor positioning on this ICE coverage against Reggie Jackson’s drive again exemplifies his weaknesses.

Here, he doesn’t go vertical on Seth Curry drive, instead going out not up in a very easy contesting situation.

His timing is largely poor rotating over from the weak side as he’s slow to diagnose and react, and you can again see poor technique turning sideways and essentially running right into barely 6-foot waterbug Yogi Ferrell.

It would be one thing if Okafor was a technically sound rim protector, but there is too much of this poor technique on tape to think he’ll ever be proficient there.

Even in instances where he gets to the right spot like in the following ICE situation, he doesn’t have the explosive leaping ability to consistently protect the rim.

On the defensive side of the ball, it’s just an incredibly bleak picture.

Taking all the above into account, the overarching question given the totality of Okafor’s weaknesses is this: is he salvageable? Being an all-offense, no-defense five immediately reduces his role on a winning team to a backup contributor. You just can’t survive in today’s game with a five man starter who takes as much off the table as Okafor does defensively. It’s the only position in the league where you cannot hide defensive deficiencies to sizable degrees.

So does Okafor even have a back-up role on a good team? He’s clearly more polished as a self-creator than most designated “bucket-getters” off the bench, but there’s one glaring mishap for this role: most other players of this mold do at least one thing other than scoring in a high usage, limited minute role, and Okafor doesn’t do anything other than score even remotely well. Nikola Vucevic can pass reasonably well and is an elite defensive rebounder. Enes Kanter is a bulldog on the offensive glass. Al Jefferson at his peak was a plus defensive rebounder. Brook Lopez can shoot 3s and protect the rim. Greg Monroe is an excellent passer who also is force on the glass. Okafor is none of those things. He’s 52nd in rebounding rate among centers this year, including 54th in defensive rebounding rate and 47th in offensive rebounding rate. As discussed above he is also a minus passer at the NBA level and doesn’t shoot 3s. He doesn’t provide the versatility that even traditional offensive centers, who have mostly fallen by the wayside in terms of impact, do.

Where does that leave us? You can make an argument that Okafor’s situation in Philadelphia with the fit issues and inconsistent minutes with the Sixers’ surplus of fives is partly causing his lackluster play. But that argument is quickly turned on its head when Nerlens Noel is a positive contributor in the exact same setting. Okafor could benefit from a change of scenery no question, but at this juncture it’s fair to be dubious that a new team will create a new player. Despite his pedigree, Okafor should be assessed at his current value from the sample size we’ve seen in the NBA thus far: a gifted scorer and that’s it. In a league saturated with non-special fives, a backup scoring big doesn’t hold a lot of value. You can find more well-rounded backups in the second round of the draft, so why invest first round pick capital and young prospects in this archetype? That’s a question interested teams like New Orleans and Chicago need to ask themselves in lieu of mere pedigree.

Next: Could a trade save Jahlil Okafor and Brandon Knight?

Okafor may in fact still be salvageable. He’s still just 21 years-old, and he does have an NBA skill. But the more likely outcome as this point in time is that he isn’t, at least when it comes to contributing to winning basketball. It’s dangerous to view a player by name and pedigree instead of actual performance, which is basically what a team acquiring Okafor right now is doing if they part with anything of value. Buyer beware.