DraftKings NBA Picks for February 23
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for February 23
There are six games in the main DraftKings tournament tonight in the NBA’s return to the court. We have a solid player pool, but plenty of tough matchups. Who can perform well in a tough matchup to give us some separation? Let’s take a look at what’s in store for tonight!
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
James Harden ($12,500): Harden had a triple-double in Sunday’s All Star game. The bad news? One of the categories that he doubled in was turnovers! You can’t read too much into that, but the fact remains that the Pelicans are fifth in the league in point guard defense. In the first game against New Orleans, Harden racked up 67.75 DraftKings points. That puts him over 5x value if he can manage to do it again.
Stephen Curry ($9,500): Curry wasn’t much of a factor in the All Star game, but he still played well and made sure he stayed healthy. He laid flat on the floor at the foul line after a Giannis Antetokounmpo steal that resulted in a thunderous dunk. At any rate, Curry has decimated the Clippers so far this year. He has averaged 56.2 DraftKings points per game over three games. He should have no problem reaching 5x value.
Honorable Mention:
Damian Lillard ($8,400): Orlando is good against the point? Lillard didn’t seem to notice. He put up 48.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Magic this year. Lillard struggled in the last couple of games before the break, so hopefully the break helps him regain his early season form.
Kemba Walker ($7,700): Jrue Holiday struggled against Houston earlier this year, and struggled leading up to the break. I will go with Walker, who has 125.5 DraftKings points in three games against Detroit this year. If he did it three times, it wasn’t a fluke, right? Walker’s February slide seems to be over. He looked good going into the break, and was 3-6 from the floor in the All Star Game. He looks safe to use now.
Dark Horses:
Jameer Nelson ($6,500): This hinges completely on the health of Emmanuel Mudiay. Nelson has been outstanding with Mudiay out, averaging 40 DraftKings points per game over the last four games. Mudiay could have a tough time getting the job back with the way Nelson is playing. Nelson may even be worth it if he starts with Mudiay coming off the bench, but I would feel a lot less confident in the pick.
Elfrid Payton ($5,200): Payton is back to his inconsistent ways again, but he did have 36.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland. His performances haven’t always coinciding with the strengths of opponents. Overall, Payton has only hit 5x value once in the month of February, and is a big risk despite the success he had against Portland earlier this year.
My picks: Curry(PG), Payton(G), Harden(PG)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
C.J. McCollum ($7,500): McCollum had 41.75 DraftKings points in the first game against Orlando. McCollum has been hit and miss in February, only hitting 5x value in half of the games. On paper, this is a solid matchup. However, McCollum’s inconsistency this month is a bit unnerving.
Eric Gordon ($5,200): Gordon defeated Kyrie Irving in the three point shooting contest. We all know how good of a shooter he is, and he put up 38.25 DraftKings points on the Pelicans the first time around. Now that the Pelican guard corral has been cleared out, Gordon could have just as good of a game in this one. Make sure to keep a close eye on the availability of Lou Williams for Houston. If the plays, I like Gordon much less.
Honorable Mention:
Gary Harris ($5,200): The Nuggets will be mostly healthy in this game, which makes Will Barton way too much of a risk at his price. He likely will not start, and it looks like Wilson Chandler and Kenneth Faried are back, and there is a chance that Danilo Gallinari will be as well. This makes any Denver player besides Jokic a risk, but the price is right on Harris. And he will likely still start.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($4,900): KCP has 82.5 DraftKings points in three games against Charlotte so far this year. That puts him a little over 5x value if he can do it again. However, February has seen KCP struggle with his consistency once again. There is risk involved here, and the reward may not be as high as we would like.
Dark Horses:
Jamal Murray ($3,900): Murray put on a show in the Rising Stars Game last Friday, putting in 36 points and 11 assists. Will Denver play him enough to make him worth playing? If the team is at full health, it seems unlikely, but Murray is part of the future of this team. It would probably hurt the value of Nelson and Barton before it does that of Murray and Mudiay. However, there is risk involved here playing Murray, but there could be a big reward.
Buddy Hield ($3,600): Hield also put on a show in the Rising Stars game with 28 points. He went from a crowded backcourt in New Orleans to a more crowded backcourt in Sacramento. He is a risk, but the price is low enough to take a shot. It remains to be seen how the minutes will be distributed, but the Kings are now very thin up front and stacked in the backcourt. How will that play out?
E’Twaun Moore ($3,400): With the trade of Buddy Hield and Tyreke Evans to Sacramento, Moore will see a lot more minutes come his way for the Pelicans at a very low price. His production was mostly sporadic stuck behind Hield, who was given the starting nod. Now Moore will be back in the starting lineup. He has had at least 18 DraftKings points in his last six starts. He should have no problems topping 6x value here.
My pick: Moore(SG); Hield(SG), Moore(G)
Small Forwards
Best Bet:
LeBron James ($10,300): The King has 160 DraftKings points over three games against the Knicks. That puts him a little over 5x value. He has at least 5x value in six of the last ten games, so his chances of hitting it against New York are pretty good. Irving has struggled some against the Knicks, and Kevin Love it out, so it should be LeBron running the show here.
Kevin Durant ($9,400): Durant posted a triple-double (the good kind) in the All Star Game, but still didn’t win MVP honors. Those went to hometown player Anthony Davis who scored a record 52 points. Durant is averaging 46.2 DraftKings points in three games against the Clippers this season. He has posted at least 5x value in seven of the last 11 games, so his chances are also good of hitting the mark tonight.
Honorable Mention:
Wilson Chandler ($6,800): With Cousins out of the middle, and Omri Casspi also making the move to the Big Easy along with him, the middle is very thin for the Kings right now. With Chandler presumably starting at power forward, or at the very least still playing 28-32 minutes, he should be able to at least come close to finding value in this game. I am curious to see how Denver uses him with Plumlee, and Chandler may not be worth the risk if he doesn’t start. However, he is worth keeping an eye on.
Trevor Ariza ($5,600): Ariza picked up 36.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pelicans. Now that Tyreke Evans is gone, Ariza may even have an easier road to 6x value tonight. He has hit 5x value in four of the last five games, and topped 6x in two of those. This is a good place to use Ariza tonight.
Dark Horses:
Danilo Gallinari ($5,500): For this price, Gallinari could end up being a very good option. The Kings traded away Cousins and Casspi, waived Matt Barnes, and Rudy Gay is still out. Who is going to cover Gallinari? It may be left up to Tyreke Evans, and I think that is a pretty good matchup for Gallinari. Just make sure that he starts before deploying him.
Marcus Morris ($5,200): Morris has averaged 32.5 DraftKings points over his last eight contests, and he has averaged 31.1 DraftKings points in three games against the Hornets this year. Things are looking good for Morris to hit 6x value on the cheap.
Tyreke Evans ($4,200): Evans should start somewhere up front considering the lack of depth there with Garrett Temple still out. In an offense that is missing their main weapon, it will be Evans and Collison mostly who pick up the extra shot attempts. He could be a great bargain at this price.
My Pick: James(SF), Morris(PF), Harris(F); Durant(SF), Ariza(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Blake Griffin ($9,100): Griffin struggled in the first two games against the Warriors, but on February 2nd with Paul out, Griffin racked up 50.5 DraftKings points. I trust him a lot more than spending $11,000 on Cousins. I want to see how that situation plays out first before shelling out that much of my budget. Of course, the return of Chris Paul could muddle the situation, but I tend to think that Paul wont play a ton of minutes, and may be a bit rusty.
Kristaps Porzingis ($6,600): PF is barren if you aren’t willing to pay for Cousins or Griffin. The only reason I would even consider Porzingis is because Love is out. He didn’t hit 5x value in the last tilt with Cleveland with Love out either, but given the fact that Carmelo Anthony has been dominated by LeBron, Porzingis could try to take on a bigger role.
Honorable Mention:
Channing Frye ($5,500): Frye hasn’t been the most consistent producer with Love out, but he still sees a lot of the minutes. The Knicks are statistically weak up front, yet Frye wouldn’t not have hit 5x value at this price in the game two weeks ago. However, they did let the contract of Derrick Williams expire, so Frye wont be looking over his shoulder anymore.
Frank Kaminsky ($6,300): Detroit is tough on the interior, which will make it hard for Frank the Tank to reach value. However, Cody Zeller is still out, and may have lost the job outright anyway. Kaminsky has averaged 37 minutes per game and 41.5 DraftKings points per game since he was put into the starting lineup. He also had a nice game in the Rising Stars Challenge. He is trending up right now, and is an interesting contrarian play in what looks like a bad matchup on paper.
Dark Horses:
Aaron Gordon ($4,900): The trade of Serge Ibaka to Toronto will result in Gordon moving back to his natural position of power forward. This will only help him, especially Thursday since Portland is weak at the position. I wouldn’t suggest that Gordon is going to set the world on fire initially, but Gordon should have little issues giving you at least 5x value for this price.
Tobias Harris ($4,800): Harris has averaged 33.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against Charlotte this season. His production has been all over the place lately as his consistency in the early going has gone by the wayside.
Anthony Tolliver ($3,900): With the liquidation of the frontcourt over the break, the Kings really have no choice but to use Tolliver at PF now. Whether that is good or bad news for us fantasy players remains to be seen. He plays a lot of minutes, but the production is all over the place, and he isn’t enough of an offensive threat to throw up huge numbers. That said, there will be a ton of shots to go around with Boogie gone.
My pick: N/A; Frye(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Nikola Jokic ($10,500): Oh, this is going to get ugly. The Kings have no one that can come close to slowing down Jokic, let alone stop him. The only thing that could is his coach. Denver could be back to full health tomorrow, which means the player merry-go-round go rear its ugly head again. There is also a real likelihood that this game becomes a blowout. Jokic picked up 37 DraftKings points in 28 minutes in the first meeting with the Kings. There is a great chance that he doesn’t play any more minutes than that, so there is risk involved.
Andre Drummond ($7,600): I trust Drummond a lot more than Anthony Davis. First off, Davis struggled in his only game against Houston this year. Second, having Cousins there will cut into his production, though the team will be better overall. Drummond has 99.5 DraftKings points in three contests with Charlotte this year. That leaves him a shade under 5x value, but Drummond has topped 5x value in five of the last six games. He has been a monster in February, posting six games of at least 40 DraftKings points.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Vucevic ($7,100): Vucevic abused Portland in the first meeting, racking up 55.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting. He has been over 5x value in six of the last ten games. Portland is still trying to adjust to the new bodies up front, so Vucevic could have a nice game here as well.
Guillermo Hernangomez ($5,700): Hernangomez has already been named the starter for tomorrow night’s game, so he could wind up being a solid value. Of course the caveat here is that Tristan Thompson is one of the better defenders in the middle, so don’t expect miracles. 28.5 DraftKings points is probably within reach though.
Dark Horses:
Jusuf Nurkic ($4,300): Nurkic is criminally underpriced tonight. He put up 29.25 DraftKings points in his Portland debut against a tough Utah front. Tonight he gets the Magic, who are in the bottom five in center defense. Nurkic will be used in a lot of lineups, but I’m going to find separation elsewhere. Nurkic will be too much of a bargain.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($3,600): Once his offense comes around, WCS could be a good player for the Kings. He will get plenty of minutes with which to showcase his talents since almost the whole frontcourt was jettisoned out of town. He is a work in progress, but he should be a nice bargain while his price is this low.
My pick: Nurkic(C), Vucevic(UTIL), Nurkic(C), Hernangomez(UTIL)
Next: FanDuel NBA Picks For February 23
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