DraftKings NBA Picks for March 3

Friday means amped up NBA action, with 20 of the 30 teams in the league in action for the main DraftKings tournament. Watch out for resting players in the second night of a back to back set. That is all the rage in the NBA these days.

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($13,100): Westbrook tops the $13,000 mark for the second straight night, and he should. He has 170.5 DraftKings points in just two games against Phoenix this year. It doesn’t much matter if Victor Oladipo is on the court or not. Westbrook destroys the Suns. Good luck finding a suitable fade option.

John Wall ($9,700): Sure, Wall struggled a bit against the Raptors on Wednesday, but he was under the weather and playing in the second game of a back to back set. Wall got some much needed rest, and is back on the court against those same Raptors. Expect closer to 5x value this time around. He still has 99.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Raptors this year. The first game was probably more indicative of where he will be than Wednesday’s game.

Isaiah Thomas ($9,300): Thomas racked up 48 DraftKings points against the Lakers in the first meeting this year. Instead of Bradley negatively affecting Thomas’s output upon his return, it has had the opposite effect. Thomas has actually been more productive with Bradley back in the fold. The Lakers have struggled against point guards this season, so Thomas is a solid option if you are fading Westbrook.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving ($8,400): His scoring has been way up with Kevin Love out, but he had just one assist against the Celtics on Wednesday. That directly led to a subpar night as far as DraftKings is concerned. However, something to take away from this is that his shooting and scoring was still where it should be. That assist total is an anomaly. Atalnta still struggles with points guards this year, so all of Irving’s numbers should be where we have some to expect them.

D’Angelo Russell ($6,900): Russell had 40.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Celtics. He benefitted from the All Star Break more than most. Russell really needed the rest, and seems to be back at the form he showed earlier in the season. He is averaging that 40.5 DraftKings points since the All Star Break after missing 5x value for two weeks prior to the break. Expect another strong showing from Russell.

Dennis Schroder ($6,200): It took Schroder some time to grow into his role. He was wild and inconsistent for most of the first half of the season, but he has seven straight games in the 30’s in DraftKings points. It’s nice to have that kind of consistency that you can count on. He picked up 39 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Cleveland. Schroder should have no problem keeping the streak alive. If he doesn’t, it should be because he tops 40, not comes in under 30.

Dark Horse:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600): Brogdon’s production could take a hit if newly signed Terrence Jones pushes Giannis back to point guard. That’s a hard sell right now considering Brogdon has averaged 31.3 DraftKings points since the break. Brogdon is producing since being promoted back to the starting unit. He was inconsistent off the bench. Start him if the Bucks do!

Tyler Johnson ($5,200): After struggling with Dallas and Indiana, Johnson was back on track against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Next up is a Magic team that is statistically sound against point guards, but Johnson has averaged 35.5 DraftKings points per game against them this season. He still remains one of the favorite bargain plays at the position.

Patty Mills ($3,600): He is firmly locked in a timeshare, but it could be worse. Mills is still priced low enough to get you value nearly every time out. Especially against the Pelicans. He has averaged 22.3 DraftKings points per game against them in three games this year. He could be a sneaky source of value on a loaded night in the NBA.

My picks: Westbrook(PG), Johnson(G); Russell(PG), Brogdon(SG), Schroder(G)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,900): DeRozan was a miserable 7-20 from the field against Washington on Wednesday. I have doubts that they can hold him down again, though it is possible. The Wizards are the third best team in the league defending shooting guards. No one said it would be easy for DeRozan, but the Wizards backcourt dominated their Toronto counterparts. Cory Joseph may not fare any better, but I’m thinking DeRozan will. He is a one man gang with Kyle Lowry out.

Bradley Beal ($7,000): Beal has quietly averaged 39.5 DraftKings points per game since the All Star break. He was right at 5x value on Wednesday against Toronto. If you aren’t willing to gamble on DeRozan shooting better than he did on Wednesday night, Beal is the less risky play, but his upside isn’t as high.

Devin Booker ($6,700): Statistically, this isn’t a good matchup for Booker, but if Oladipo is out again, that changes. Booker has 73.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Thunder this year. He could have an even better matchup tonight if the task of defending him is left up to Doug McDermott or Alex Abrines. Advantage: Booker.

Honorable Mention:

Seth Curry ($6,000): His price is slowly climbing, but not fast enough to match is production. Curry has averaged 36.9 DraftKings points per game since Deron Williams was waived. He has a tough matchup with Memphis, who are one of the few teams that still dominates point guards. If Curry plays point, he is going to have a tough time hitting 5x value. Keep an eye on where Dallas starts him before using him in your lineups.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,400): Clarkson has seen an increase in stability and a slight uptick in production with Lou Williams gone. Clarkson may be better suited for cash games at this point, but he does have upside. It is limited since the Lakers are committed to not starting him. They insist he plays better off the bench.

Marcus Smart ($5,300): Smart’s upside is capped by the return of Avery Bradley, but Bradley’s minutes are still being severely limited. Smart still has solid value right now so long as Bradley isn’t carving out more than 20 minutes per game. I like the matchup against the Lakers here, just don’t expect anything over 6x value with Bradley in the mix.

Dark Horse:

Bojan Bogdanovic ($4,400): After an unassuming start with the Wizards, Bogdanovic has been an assassin from the perimeter off the bench in the last three games. He is 12-19 from downtown in that span and has averaged 25 DraftKings points per game. He is at 6x value right now, and will continue to play as long as he can hit.

Joe Ingles ($4,000): Rodney Hood is out again, so that will leave Ingles in line for another start. He only has 14.25 DraftKings points against Minnesota, but there is reason for optimism tonight. Ingles put up 23.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Brooklyn coming off the bench. He should be able to get at least that as a starter.

Doug McDermott ($3,600): Billy Donovan has been looking towards McDermott, not Alex Abrines, more over the last two games with Oladipo still sidelined. Abrines torched many a lineup last night. Don’t make the mistake again. Use the more heavily used McDermott and hope for the best.

My pick: Clarkson(SG), Ingles(UTIL); N/A

Small Forwards

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,200): His minutes and usage are way up without Love in the lineup. Irving sees an uptick too, but LeBron is back to dropping 60’s, something he didn’t do until almost Christmas this year. He has now done it twice in the last three games. The only time he missed was against a defensively improving Bucks squad. Can Atlanta stop him? I have my doubts.

Gordon Hayward ($7,600): For whatever reason, the Pelicans have held Kawhi Leonard in check so far this year. I will go after Hayward instead, who put up 46 DraftKings points in just 34 minutes in the first meeting. If this game becomes a blowout, Hayward will be a big reason why. With Rodney Hood out, he should see more shots than usual. Hayward could be in line for a big night.

Honorable Mention:

Carmelo Anthony ($7,500): Melo has had an up and down season, but he has been all up against Philadelphia. He has turned in games of 40.75 and 49 DraftKings points against them this year. He has at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games. Anthony lacks the upside that he had during his prime, but he has turned back the clock against the Sixers this year.

Robert Covington ($7,200): Miami was the only team to hold him under 5x value since February 6th. Covington has been on quite a roll lately. He torched the Knicks for 47 DraftKings points last weekend. Don’t be surprised if him and Melo dominate the game again this time around.

Khris Middleton ($6,000): Middleton saw his minutes climb up to 31 in Wednesday’s game. He responded with 38.75 DraftKings points. Middleton is likely still on a 30 minute restriction, but he has proven that he can produce more than enough in that time to make him a good bargain. Keep your ears open for any word on minutes restrictions. If it’s below 30, this is not as strong of a pick.

Dark Horses:

T.J. Warren ($5,800): Warren has topped 5x value in every game since the trade of P.J. Tucker. However, he has not been above 6x value. That leaves him as a more useful option in cash games, but if he gets hot with his newfound starter’s minutes, look out!

Terrence Ross ($5,500): Ross was shut down by the Knicks on Wednesday, turning in his worst game as a member of the Magic. His price is increasing to the point where it will be hard for him to get value, but facing a Heat team that gave up 28.5 DraftKings to him in just 20 minutes when he was with Toronto leaves reason for optimism. Given that the Heat may also be without Dion Waiters, I am liking this option more and more!

Derrick Williams ($3,800): Williams has been a much more consistent option than Channing Frye with Kevin Love out. I wouldn’t even say that Frye has more upside right now. If you are looking to play off of Love’s injury, Williams is the place to look. He has at least 6x value over the last two games as he keeps swiping minutes from Frye.

My Pick: Covington(SF), Williams(F); Middleton(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($9,400): The arrival of Cousins hasn’t hurt Davis’s value much. Of course, Cousins was suspended for one of those games. At this price, Davis has hit at least 5x value in every game with Cousins on the roster. Playing both may make you feel like a king, but it isn’t going to help you take down a tournament. Davis is the more reliable option.

Dario Saric ($7,400): The rookie put up 45.25 DraftKings points on the Knicks last weekend. It is surprising that his price is still this low. Saric is going to go off on the dilapidated Knicks frontcourt again. There is plenty of value to be had here, even at this price.

Honorable Mention:

Paul Millsap ($7,000): It is very tempting to use Millsap without Love patrolling the paint for Cleveland. One thing is for sure. The Cavs wont be holding Millsap to 28 DraftKings points again. That leaves nowhere to go but up. Millsap is a bit of an off the radar play tonight. He has come back to life lately with 83 DraftKings points over the last to games. He has a legitimate shot at 40 tonight.

Julius Randle ($6,800): His dominant performance against Charlotte (65.5 DraftKings points) couldn’t have come at a worse time for us bargain hunters. Don’t get me wrong, Randle is still a bargain, but he wont go unnoticed like he may have with an average game against the Hornets. Boston is still weak at the power forward position. Randle missed out on the first game with the Celtics. Don’t be surprised if he makes up for lost time.

Serge Ibaka ($6,700): Ibaka racked up 44.5 DraftKings points on the Wizards two days ago. The game moves to Washington this time around, but I would be surprised if Ibaka strayed too far from this result. He appears to be the missing link for the Raptors right now.

Dark Horses:

James Johnson ($5,600): Johnson doesn’t have enough upside to help you take down a GPP tournament, but he can help you cross the money line with his consistency. He had rough games against Atlanta and Dallas, but he has been over 5x value in every other game over the last ten, including a game against Orlando. The Magic still had Ibaka then, so Johnson has the potential to do some more tonight.

Marquese Chriss ($4,300): Chriss is playing starter’s minutes as the Suns look to go young. So far, the results have been mixed. However, Chriss is one of those guys that can sink your lineup, or he can give you the sort of upside that makes a difference in a winning lineup. I don’t think the matchup with Oklahoma City is ripe for such an outburst, but they have struggled with athletic power forwards.

Taj Gibson ($3,800): Something telling happened last night in your late game. Gibson played 33 minutes to starter Domantas Sabonis played just ten. Gibson also had his best game as a member of the Thunder, picking up 33 DraftKings points. Whether the trend continues remains to be seen, but this is a playoff team. They need to play whomever gives them the best chance to win. Right now that is Gibson.

My pick: Randle(PF); Saric(PF), Johnson(F)

Center

Best Bets:

DeMarcus Cousins ($9,200): Just because Cousins hasn’t been as effective with New Orleans doesn’t mean that he has been bad. His low mark is 44.75 DraftKings points, which is still close to 5x value. He destroyed the Spurs on the interior as a member of the Kings this year, picking up 122.25 DraftKings points in two games. He wont get to that point again, but high 40’s, and 5x value, is in play here.

Rudy Gobert ($7,300): Gobert abused the Nets to the tune of 46.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting between these two teams. Beware of blowouts though. Gobert played just 21 minutes against Minnesota on Wednesday in a game which Utah won by 27. If this game gets out of hand, Gobert may get extended rest once again.

Honorable Mention:

Nikola Vucevic ($7,200): Hassan Whiteside sat out practice last night with a stomach ailment. If that prevents him from playing, Vucevic’s value may actually take a hit. Vucevic has averaged 46.4 DraftKings points per game in three games against Whiteside this year. Even if Whiteside sits, this is a tasty matchup for Vucevic.

DeAndre Jordan ($7,000): Jordan didn’t take advantage of a great matchup against Houston. Can he do take advantage of the Bucks up front? Milwaukee’s revolving door at center has earned them the dubious distinction of being the worst team in the league against centers. The Bucks have a lot of bodies up front, but quantity hasn’t equaled quality. The door is open for Jordan to have a big game. Can he come through tonight?

Kyle O’Quinn ($5,600): Regardless of if Willy Hernangomez is in the lineup or not, I like O’Quinn tonight. He has 76 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks this year while playing only 48 minutes! He put up 36 of those last week! His value gets a huge boost if Hernangomez is out, but regardless, O’Quinn should have a huge game for his price.

Dark Horses:

Jahlil Okafor ($4,900): His run in the starting lineup has been plagued by inconsistency. Against the Knicks though, he had 43.5 DraftKings points in 29 minutes. In the two games since, he has 23 DraftKings points in 39 minutes. There is risk here, but his track record suggests that the Knicks are a very good matchup for Okafor.

Alan Williams ($4,400): Williams is still improving by the game, it seems. He posted his second double-double in the last three games last night, providing those that used him with a sure place above the money line. Don’t be surprised if he does the same thing to the Thunder tonight.

My pick: Williams(C); Vucevic(C), Okafor(UTIL)

Next: FanDuel NBA Top 5 Plays

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