Welcome to the Friday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s ten game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday Night’s slate saw scores remain in the 340 range for GPP wins, which considering the three game slate is not overly surprising. ! Over the first 103 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.2 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 103 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.2 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Picks and Pivots had another solid night with our core Picks lineup putting up 282.5 FanDuel points which put us above the cash line in all formats again! The Russell Westbrook/Steph Curry combo delivered for over 100 FanDuel points and our value PF/C combo of Alan Williams and Enes Kanter brought over 63 FD points combined.
The biggest bust was Alex Abrines who only played 9 minutes and scored 6 FD points, but the Patrick McCaw play crushed value with 24.8 FD points so we were able to hit on one of our two punt targets at SG!
Tonight we get a loaded 10 game slate so make sure you take the time to really dig into this one as I think there are some obvious places that people will flock to which could give us an edge in GPP formats!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($13,000) Thirteen thousand. Wow.
Read that price again, look at all the great PG’s on this ten game slate and I bet you think it’s better to drop down in price rather than force in a guy who will leave you only $5.8k per player for the rest of your roster.
My guess is that will be the response of the majority tonight so hit the lock button on Westbrook as we may be able to get the best player in the NBA at a supreme ownership discount tonight. The question for me with Westbrook (or any player with an inflated price) is can you fit a roster around him that you are comfortable with. I believe that tonight there is a path to a roster build around Westbrook (and another stud) that still has a solid all-around roster and that is my intended path tonight!
As for Westbrook’s match-up, well there is a reason that FanDuel jacked the price up to $13k and that is the fact he faces the Phoenix Suns. In the two previous match-ups against Phoenix this season, Westbrook is averaging 38.5 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds and dropped 73.2 and 80.6 FanDuel points against the Suns. In those two games, Westbrook is AVERAGING 76.6 FanDuel points which would be 5.9x value at this price point! Think about that!
The injury to Victor Oladipo has taken Westbrook’s game to a whole new level as Mike Gallagher pointed out on Twitter last night. The fact that Westbrook is sporting a 50% usage rate right now is off the charts, and with 60+ FanDuel points in 5 straight games, I am going back to the well tonight!
Russ Westbrook had a 51.7 usage rate today & a 50.1 USG% on Tues. It's the first time he's had a 50+ USG% in consecutive games this season.
— Michael Gallagher (@MikeSGallagher) March 3, 2017
D’Angelo Russell ($6,400) The Boston/Lakers game has the highest combined team total on the slate and I expect most will look to the Boston side of this game to select their point guard, but I am looking to roster the young Lakers guard instead.
It is widely known at this point that Isaiah Thomas has the worst individual defensive rating of any NBA player this season and we have been able to target PG’s against him all year in DFS. Russell just put up 38.2 FanDuel points (6x value) against this Boston team in their last match-up and comes into this game in elite form.
Russell has played 36 minutes in two of his last three games while dropping 39 and 47 FanDuel points and at this price point, is a great way to target a high scoring contest with a player priced for massive profit!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Marcus Smart ($5,000) If you are taking the approach of fading Isaiah Thomas like I am, getting exposure to Smart as your pivot play makes the most sense from a GPP perspective. Avery Bradley continues to work his way back from injury having played 15 and 22 minutes in his first games back, but we saw the Celtics still gave Smart over 33 minutes of run last game against the Cavaliers while putting up 24 FanDuel points.
Smart is a steady 5x producer, especially at this price point as he has been consistently in the 25 FD point range each night over the last two weeks, but we have also seen him go for 42+ in two of his last nine games which shows the GPP upside he has. This is a GPP strategy play only for me as I expect IT4 will be one of the most popular plays on the slate, but you are paying nearly $10k for a guy who hasn’t exceeded 50 FD points in over a month. I will pivot away from Thomas, get Smart for half the price and a fraction of the ownership to try to outpace the field!
Alex Abrines ($3,500)/Alec Burks ($3,500)/Wayne Ellington ($3,600) Initially, I had Gerald Henderson locked into this spot however with the news he will be out for the next two games with an injury, we need to find some pivot options in the same price range.
Abrines is a guy we recommended yesterday and he fell flat on his face, playing less than 10 minutes as the starting SG for OKC. With Victor Oladipo still out, I think we can still look to go back to Abrines here while most others will likely jump off! The reduction in minutes last night was primarily driven by foul trouble as Abrines picked up 2 quick fouls in the first 3 minutes of the game and did not return to the court until after half-time where he proceeded to pick up his third foul in the first 12 seconds of the second half. Abrines has shown upside with two games as a starter with double-digit shot attempts so I have no issue going back to him tonight at a likely minuscule ownership percentage!
The two other guys on my radar are certainly more GPP fliers but both have some merit. Ellington is coming off one of his better games and could be forced into significantly more run if Dion Waiters (questionable) misses the game. This is a player and a situation I will keep an eye on as the Waiters news could open up some nice value here.
Burks and the Jazz get the best match-up you can ask for against the Nets and comes into this game with two straight 5x performances off the bench. The Jazz are massive favorites in this game so we are utilizing Burks if we think this game will get out of hand and he will see a ton of garbage time!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Khris Middleton ($5,300) As a daily fantasy player, we have been watching the minutes and game logs for Khris Middleton, waiting for the perfect time to unleash him. With the injury to Michael Beasley, Wednesday Night was the perfect opportunity against Denver and he responded with 31 minutes and 35.5 FanDuel points, putting him at near 7x value!
Now that we have seen the minutes eclipse the 30 minute mark, and with the Bucks coming off a night of rest, I see no reason not to roster Middleton again tonight. The best place to attack the Clippers all season as been on the wings, as they rank 23rd in DvP to opposing SF’s and although the Bucks did sign Terrence Jones(great move by the way), I wouldn’t expect him to impact Middleton’s run tonight.
Brandon Ingram ($3,800) I expect the Celtics side will garner most of the attention in this game, but I absolutely love the Lakers side of this match-up as the price points are deflated to the point where it makes my Westbrook roster build that much easier!
The Lakers seem to be FINALLY letting their young guns loose as Ingram has played between 35 and 42 minutes over his last three contests. Ingram is averaging over 22 FD points per game in that stretch, hitting 6x value in two of his last three games and with that much guaranteed run, I do not see how you pass that up for under $4k.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Julius Randle ($6,300) One more time from the Lake Show! Randle is coming off a MONSTER game against Charlotte where he played 34 minutes, racking up 23 points, 18 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks for 62.6 FanDuel points! Now, I would be crazy to predict that again but keep in mind that the Celtics gave up 42 FD points to Larry Nance Jr. the last time these two teams met up!
I think this is a big time letdown spot for Boston after their epic win over the Cavaliers and now with this game in LA, I think the Lakers come out with a big night, centered around their young core and I want to stack them up tonight!
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Kristaps Porzingis ($6,700) The Knicks/Sixers game is a great one to target and I think KP is the top option from this game at a price point that seems entirely too low. With Joakim Noah and Willy Hernangomez out, Jeff Hornacek opted to move KP to the 5 which allowed the Knicks to play some of their best basketball of the season! I expect the Knicks to roll out a similar lineup, focused around Porzingis who delivered a solid 36 FanDuel points last time out.
The match-up with Jahlil Okafor and Dario Saric is one we need to attack as we saw Hassan Whiteside log 40 FanDuel points off 15 points and 11 boards in ONLY 22 minutes last game! Fire up KP tonight as a safe cash game option, an elite GPP player an a core play for me tonight!
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,900) We started this column with our focus on Russell Westbrook and the challenge of fitting in his $13k salary and we are ending it with another stud play that based off my earlier roster construction, I can fit in nice and easy at Center tonight!
Boogie is priced under $10k and returns to the court after a one game suspension to take on the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are not a team we typically target and I expect most will look at the SA match-up as an avoid, but this is a spot Boogie has dominated this season.
In the two previous games against the Spurs, Boogie has dropped 58.2 and 54.4 FanDuel points against the Spurs as a member of the Kings. For under $10k, we can get a guy with a 5x floor and 6x upside who I expect will be massively overlooked.
So all together, we can lock in Russell Westbrook, DeMarcus Cousins and Kristaps Porzingis all while stacking the young Lakers core in the highest scoring game of the night. I like it. Let’s get it!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!
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