FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 6
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s twelve game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday Night’s scores were a bit lower than the season average as the winning GPP score landed at 364.4 FanDuel points. Over the first 106 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 106 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.6 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Sunday Night’s Picks and Pivots lineups both landed at 285 FanDuel points and was hit or miss relative to the cash line depending on which contests you entered. Russell Westbrook was held to only 49 FanDuel points so he failed to pay off his lofty salary which ultimately hurt us. It was interesting to see Westbrook owned over 30% in large field GPP play on this slate even at $13.4k which meant fading him was really the contrarian thing to do!
We have a monster Monday night slate to sort through so let’s get to it!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($8,800) Looking over a slate this size we are going to have a ton of options to choose from but the way the roster build looks to me initially, I love this $8-$9k price range which is littered with high upside stars that have the ability to end the night as the highest scoring player on the floor.
Lillard is a player I have been utilizing almost nightly in recent contests as he is playing some of the best basketball of the season and remains under $9k on FanDuel. Dame comes into this game with 40 or more FanDuel points in each of his last five games. Lillard has shot the ball 20 or more times in four of his last five games while continuing to rack up peripheral stats which makes him an elite GPP target.
Lillard gets a decent match-up with Ricky Rubio and Minnesota tonight who are ranked in the middle of the pack in DvP to opposing PG’s. I expect most will look to spend a few extra hundred tonight to get to Kyrie Irving, Isaiah Thomas or Chris Paul but I am happy to dip right below that price tier and grab a player that has the same upside for a fraction of the cost!
Ish Smith ($4,600) Coach Stan Van Gundy has openly toyed with the idea of putting Ish Smith into the starting lineup over Reggie Jackson and from a GPP perspective, let’s hope Smith stays on the bench which should keep his ownership MUCH lower than if he got the starting nod.
Smith has put up 37+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games which would exceed 8x value at this price point. Tonight Detroit gets an elite match-up with the Chicago Bulls who may be down to Cameron Payne/Jerian Grant at PG so this is a spot we should look to attack in GPP play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Tim Hardaway Jr ($5,500) The Hawks gets one of the biggest pace boosts on the slate as they take on the Golden State Warriors at home in a game with only a 6 point spread. Although Thabo Sefolosha has returned, Hardaway is frankly making it impossible for the Hawks to take him off the court with his recent play.
In the last two games, Hardaway has put up 36 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6x value at this price point. The most impressive part is the volume of shot attempts that Hardaway is taking, as he has 36 shot attempts in his last two games, including 16 three-point field goal attempts.
The Hawks are going to need to score to keep up with Golden State tonight and Hardaway is a player that Atlanta clearly is leaning on to shoulder the load offensively.
Rodney Hood ($4,200) Hood was a late addition to the Jazz starting lineup last night and I toyed with pivoting to him prior to lock but did not want to overhaul my lineup just to do it. Well, I kinda wish I had!
Hood stepped right back into 33 minutes of run and dropped 35.8 FanDuel points on the back of 28 points on 10 for 17 shooting! Hood has now played 30+ minutes in each of his last two games, has hit 5x value in three straight and reminded us all of his upside at this bargain price last night.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Jimmy Butler ($9,100) Small forward is a position I think you should look to spend up at tonight and at right above $9k, there are some tremendous options that I am going to make core plays in my lineup.
Butler has not been firing on all cylinders lately, as he has failed to top 50 FanDuel points since the end of January, but tonight may be the night to fire him back up! Dwayne Wade AND Rajon Rondo are questionable with an injury tonight and if they are both ruled out, you simply have to play Butler against the Pistons.
With Rondo and Butler off the floor this season, Butler sees a 10% usage increase, leading the team with a 39% usage rate and putting up over 52 FD points per 36 minutes. This is the spot I am watching most intently tonight as if Wade/Rondo are OUT, I am loading up on Butler. If either of those two are IN, you can safely pivot down to value plays like Terrence Ross or Moe Harkless and allocate the salary savings in other spots.
UPDATE: Wade has been ruled OUT and Rondo remains questionable as a game time decision!
Kawhi Leonard ($9,200) At the same price point, a Small Forward who IS playing some of the best basketball of the season gets one of the best match-ups in the NBA as the Spurs take on the fast paced Houston Rockets.
Kawhi comes into this game in elite form with 50+ FanDuel points in each of his last three games including a monster 66 spot on Saturday night. The Spurs have the third highest team total on the slate as they see not only a material pace boost but are also projected to score 5 points more than their season average.
On this slate, I love the idea of pairing up Kawhi/Butler and to build around two players with 50-60 projections and being able to do so without having to go over $10k in salary for either player!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($9,900) Well as promised, for as long as The Joker is under $10k, he will be a LOCK in Picks and Pivots each day! The Nuggets have the highest implied team total on the slate and Jokic is back to playing major minutes while racking up triple-doubles in two of his last four games with 50+ two of his last three contests.
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The Nuggets take on a Kings team with no real answer to Jokic inside and for this price point, he is a cash game lock and a player with some of the highest GPP upside on the slate. There is some blowout potential in this one as the Nuggets are favored by double-digits but I expect Jokic will be able to get his 30 minutes of run and post another monster line tonight!
UPDATE: Jokic is QUESTIONABLE tonight due to illness. Will update our lineups closer to lock if we need to pull away from Jokic!
Aaron Gordon ($5,200) The Knicks and Magic play again for the second time in just a few days and the Magic were a very popular target across DFS that night. Largely, almost all of the Magic players busted in that spot so it will be interesting to see the ownership on these guys tonight.
One player I am going back to everywhere tonight is Aaron Gordon who remains simply way too cheap for this role as the Magic starting PF. Gordon has back to back double-doubles while putting up 33 FD points per game over his last two contests (6.3x value). There are very few players that sit at this price point with legit 6-8x upside and tonight against a Knicks team ranked 20th in DvP to PF’s, I am going to lock Gordon in again!
Bismack Biyombo ($3,500) The news broke late on Sunday that Nikola Vucevic would miss the game with an injury and start Bismack Biyombo. Hopefully you built some lineups with him included, as Biyombo played 34 minutes, racked up a 14/15 double-double and dropped 34.5 FD points which puts him at 10x value.
If Vooch is ruled out tonight against the Knicks, Bismack will be CHALK city, but I do not care. For $3.5k, I am taking the salary savings here and looking to attack a Knicks team ranked 27th in DvP to opposing Centers.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR each day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!