DraftKings NBA Picks April 4

There is a huge 11 game NBA slate tonight after giving college basketball the stage last night. This is one of the larger DraftKings tournaments left in the NBA season. Do we use all early players due to the unpredictability of the lineups in the last week of the season?

Point Guards

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($13,500): So, you take a look and see that Westbrook had just 52.25 DraftKings points against Milwaukee in the first meeting. That has you considering the unthinkable: fading him. Westbrook has averaged an unthinkable 80.4 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. Look at that again 80.4! He is trying to carry the Thunder into the playoffs and wave both middle fingers at those who say he doesn’t deserve the MVP in the only way he knows how. Decimating opponents.

Stephen Curry ($9,700): The cruel joke is that you likely can’t afford both Curry and Westbrook at these prices. So you have to fade Westbrook to get Curry. If you do, Curry has averaged 56 DraftKings points per game over his last five. That means that if you account for the price diffential, Curry is nearly at the same level as Westbrook. You just have to pick right with the extra $3,800 to make up for the 24.4 point differential.

Honorable Mention:

Damian Lillard ($8,600): Utah is tough against guards. We all know that. However, Lillard has put up 90.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Jazz this year. Utah may be without George Hill again. If they are, Lillard’s stock goes up even more.

Elfrid Payton ($7,900): Payton is just one rebound shy of back-to-back triple-doubles! Now, no one is going to confuse him for Westbrook anytime soon, but if he crosses 50 DraftKings points for the third straight game at half the price, he could wind up being more valuable in this format than Westbrook! The Cavs are in the middle of the road in defense on point guards. Payton may not hit 50, but 40’s are a real possibility.

Jrue Holiday ($7,300): Holiday picked up 35.75 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes in the first meeting with the Nuggets. They have been marginally better on defense at the point with Jameer Nelson playing most of the minutes there, but Denver’s defense is still pretty bad. Holiday has 5x value or more in six of the last ten games. He should top that with ease tonight.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lin ($6,600): Lin picked up 36 DraftKings points in 30 minutes against the Sixers last Wednesday. His minutes have stayed about the same, but that was the last time Lin has hit 5x value. He may not be that safe against anyone else, but he is against Philadelphia.

T.J. McConnell ($5,800): He is slightly cheaper than Lin, but he plays more minutes, and this price affords him the ability to hit 5x value a little more often. He picked up 32 DraftKings points against the Nets last week. There is no reason that he can’t do it again. Philadelphia is thin everywhere right now. McConnell is a lock for 35+ minutes per game.

Ron Baker ($3,600): Baker is still starting with Derrick Rose out, and will continue to with Rose out for the rest of the year. However, Baker doesn’t always do a lot with his minutes. He has only hit 5x value once since March 20th. He provides much-needed salary relief, but he may not get you value.

My picks: Holiday(PG); Westbrook(PG)

Shooting Guards

Best Bets:

Jimmy Butler ($9,800): Butler has been an absolute beast with Dwyane Wade out. He has at least 44 DraftKings points in nine straight games, and has gone over 53 in four of his last five. He may wind up under that tonight. The Knicks are sitting everyone including Willis Reed and Dave DeBusschere for the rest of the season. The Bulls wont need Butler nearly as much, and may elect to give him extended periods of rest in this one.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,600): DeRozan has racked up 89.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Pacers this year, including a 59.25 DraftKings point eruption on Friday. He could have a huge game against Indiana again because they really don’t have anyone that can stop him right now. Temper your expectations some, but 5x value should be the low end of his production.

Honorable Mention:

Klay Thompson ($7,000): Thompson has had his way with Minnesota so far this year. He has 124 DraftKings points against them in three games this year. He has slowed down a little since his blistering run in mid-March, but he is still putting up better numbers with Kevin Durant out. He could flirt with 6x value tonight.

Victor Oladipo ($5,900): Oladipo lacks significant upside playing nearly all his minutes with Westbrook on the court, but he has still consistently hit 5x value because he is a good passer and rebounder. He is also a capable scorer. If you are looking for consistent production over upside, Oladipo is the guy for you.

Dark Horses:

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($5,100): The rookie racked up 37.25 DraftKings points against the Nest last week for $1,700 less. However, if he does that again tonight, none of us will complain. He has been over 5x value in each of the last four games with Robert Covington out. The stage is his over the waning moments of the NBA season.

Courtney Lee ($4,900): Lee has at least 5x value in five of the last six games, picking up the slack with Carmelo Anthony and now Derrick Rose out. He is a capable scorer. All the extra opportunities afforded him lately make him a very safe and solid value play.

Jordan Crawford ($4,600): Crawford has five straight games of at least 20 DraftKings points, a streak that started against Denver when he posted nearly 30. He doesn’t have a lot of upside, but Crawford is another solid bargain piece. If you want upside, you can spin the wheel with Rodney Hood. He has been as low as 11.75 and as high as 33.5, all in the last week!

My pick: DeRozan(SG), Lee(G), Luwawu-Cabarrot(F); Luwawu-Cabarrot(SG), Crawford(G)

Small Forwards

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($10,200): LeBron played angry on Sunday against the Pacers. They felt the wrath of a triple double totaling a season high 41 points (and 89 DraftKings points). LeBron must have grown tired of all of the Westbrook/James Harden talk and their monster scoring nights in triple-doubles. Maybe he was mad that the Cavs weren’t in the top five of the power rankings for the first time all season. Whatever it was, if it is there against Orlando, he is in for another big night. He has 110.5 DraftKings points in just two games against the Magic this year.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,900): Giannis put up 51.5 DraftKings points in the first game against the Thunder playing mostly on the outside. Now he will attack the Thunder where they are (statistically) weakest: power forward. Giannis could have a very big game tonight.

Paul George ($8,100): George has at least 5x value in seven of the last ten games. He had a brilliant game against the Cavs, posting a season high 77.25 DraftKings points, yet he was still overshadowed by LeBron’s monster game. Toronto is not all that strong at small forward, and George is playing very well right now if you are willing to go outside the upper tier.

Honorable Mention:

Gordon Hayward ($6,700): Hayward’s price has plummeted lately, but he did have 41.5 DraftKings points against Portland earlier this year. The Jazz are playing for home court advantage against the Clippers in their upcoming playoff series. If anyone carries them there, it will be Hayward.

Danilo Gallinari ($6,200): Gallinari has had two big games since his minutes increased to where they were before his injury. Gallinari has 73.5 DraftKings points over those two games. He could have similar success against New Orleans tonight while he is still a bargain!

Khris Middleton ($6,100): The Thunder have been pushed around by opposing small forwards lately, and Middleton is capable of doing just that. He is scoring in bunches right now, and has proven himself to be a key component of the offense. The potential is here for him to go off tonight.

Dark Horses:

Otto Porter ($5,300): He hasn’t been all that consistent over the last six weeks, but he has been consistently good against Charlotte this year. Porter has 88.5 DraftKings points against the Hornets in three games. He lacks upside because of all of the other talent on this team, but he is a safe play in this game.

Terrence Ross ($5,200): This one scares me a little since he struggled against the Nets, but statistically this is a good matchup for Ross. He has at least 5x value in six of the last seven games. LeBron has had some points scored on him by opponents this year. It could happen again.

My Pick: Middleton(SF); Ross(SF)

Power Forwards

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($10,100): The Warriors’ athleticism has helped them keep Karl-Anthony Towns from getting his 5x value this year, so going back to the well with Davis may not be a bad thing. Davis has destroyed the Nuggets with 148.5 DraftKings points in only two games this year. Sure, Cousins will cut into his production a little, but not enough to deter me from what Davis is capable of.

Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400): Porzingis is the go-to offense for the Knicks with the veterans taking a seat for the rest of the year. Boston shut him down, but he had 5x value in the three games before that. He is still very young and very inconsistent, but he has a good chance against the Bulls tonight. He had 36.75 DraftKings points in his only game against the Bulls.

Honorable Mention:

Dario Saric ($7,400): Saric didn’t make 5x value the last time against the Nets, and has cooled off after a hot first half of March. We all know that he is still capable of big games, but he has struggled with being the focal point of the defense. He has very little around him right now to help take the pressure off, and it shows.

Aaron Gordon ($6,400): Gordon has had two monster games back-to-back lately, putting up 117.75 DraftKings points in just two games! Sure, one game was against the Nets, but the other was against a Boston team that can shut down players. I will say that I doubt he drops 50 again on Cleveland. However, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised by 40, which makes him a huge potential bargain.

Dark Horses:

Serge Ibaka ($6,100): Ibaka has had the fortune of playing the Pacers five times already since the Magic had finished their series with Indiana prior to the trade. Ibaka has averaged 32.9 DraftKings points against them in those five games, including 39.5 on them on Friday. If you elect to fade the high ownership of Gordon, his former teammate should come up big again.

Nikola Mirotic ($6,000): Mirotic has thrived with Jimmy Butler lately with the exception of playing just 17 minutes against New Orleans on Sunday. He was clearly overmatched by the twin towers of Bourbon Street. Look for Mirotic to get back on track against what is essentially a D-League team in the Knicks.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,500): RHJ picked up 32.25 DraftKings points on the Sixers last week. He has received extended run late in the year, and has shown that he can score as well as his outstanding rebounding ability. Hollis-Jefferson could come close to 6x value again.

My pick: Gordon(PF); Ibaka(PF)

Center

Best Bets:

Rudy Gobert ($8,300): DeMarcus Cousins was mortal against Denver this year, and there is no way that I trust Nikola Jokic against New Orleans. They shut him down two weeks ago. Instead, I will go with Gobert against a Portland team without Jusuf Nurkic. Who is going to stop him, Meyers Leonard? Yeah, right. Gobert could have a monster here.

Brook Lopez ($7,300): Lopez dominated the dilapidated Philadelphia front last week, racking up 51.25 DraftKings points on them. Lopez could outscore a lot of the guys that cost $3,000 more than him tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($5,900): WCS has at least 5x value in seven of the last ten games. The Kings’ rotation has settled down, and so have their youngsters up front. Well, one of them at least. Cauley-Stein wont be highly owned against Dallas, but he should still get at least 5x value.

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,900): Valanciunas abused the Pacers for 45.25 DraftKings points on Friday. As far as I know, the Pacers haven’t gone out and signed Rik Smits or Dale Davis in the last four days, so they still don’t have anyone that can stop Jonas.

Myles Turner ($5,900): Myles Turner put up 33.25 DraftKings points against Toronto in that game, which is respectable. It’s hard to forget about Valanciunas’s success in that game. This is for those of you contrarians. There is at least one in every crowd.

Dark Horses:

Frank Kaminsky ($5,300): Kaminsky has settled back into his reserve role quite nicely, going over 5x value in eight of the last ten games. He still gets plenty of run in the frontcourt, a place where Washington has struggled lately. Frank the Tank could be an interesting value play for those of you in need of one.

Tristan Thompson ($4,500): Thompson has 49.25 DraftKings points in two games against Orlando this year. He is again a serviceable low-priced option for those of us that choose to use Westbrook. You need value anywhere you can get it. Thompson is one of the safer places to get it.

Steven Adams ($4,300): Oh, the Bucks have been absolutely dominated by other centers this year. Adams was no exception. He picked up 41 DraftKings points in that first meeting. That could make him a special bargain today if he can pull it off again.

My pick: Lopez(C), Adams(UTIL); Valanciunas(C), Kaminsky(F), Adams(UTIL)

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