MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus April 4

Weleome to the Tuesday, April 4th edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column.  This article will explore top pitching options for Tuesday’s MLB FanDuel MAIN slate of games.  We will evaluate all pitching plays of the day to identify the best options, along with value, for your MLB FanDuel lineup. Finally, we’ll target pitchers to avoid in your lineup, or focus on for hitting. We believe evaluating pitchers is a key component to building your lineup for a big pay-day!

We have eight games, or 16 teams, to pick through for tonight’s MLB FanDuel lineup. We’re going to avoid several great match-ups like the Mariners and Astros or Cubs and Cardinals.  Several of these teams are well matched up and create risk for the pitcher spot or stacking options.

Here’s a list of the pitching match ups for tonight, with the pitchers we’re considering for our lineups and targeting for our hitters in bold:

C.C. Sabathia at Jake Odorizzi (7:10pm ET)

Tyler Anderson at Zack Davies (7:40pm ET)

Carlos Carrasco at Martin Perez (8:05pm ET)

Hisashi Iwakuma at Lance McCullers Jr. (8:10pm ET)

Jake Arrieta at Adam Wainwright (8:15pm ET) 

Johnny Cueto at Patrick Corbin (8:40pm ET)

Matt Shoemaker at Sean Manaea (10:05pm ET)

Richard Clayton at Kenta Maeda (10:10pm ET)

Let’s start by looking at the top scoring MLB FanDuel pitchers for Tuesday…

Next: Top Scoring Pitchers

Top Scoring MLB FanDuel Pitchers

Yesterday we loved Kershaw, the most expensive and clear top option at pitcher.  Clayton was perfect for many lineups on Monday.  He had over 54 MLB FanDuel points and you still had plenty of hitting value to stack with Kershaw to cash.

Tonight, Jake Arrieta ($10,500) is the top option, and most expensive, among the pitchers.  But I hate Arrieta’s match up.  While Jake was one of the most dynamic, and popular, pitchers to watch in 2016, he’s going to struggle more against a very good Cardinals lineup.  I also don’t like spending $9.9K for Carrasco in Texas against the Rangers, the next most expensive option.

But Johnny Cueto ($9,200) is a very exciting opportunity tonight.  Cueto had quality starts (QS) in 22 of his 32 starts last season, an average of 68.8% of the time.  That’s higher than any other pitcher available tonight.  The QS can pile up as much as 22 MLB FanDuel points, before you factor in earned runs (negative points) and strikeouts (positive points).  Johnny also had an 8.11 strikeout per 9-inning average last season.  And, he’s facing a Diamondbacks lineup who had a 22.8% strikeout ratio, 7th worst in MLB.  Cueto is the top option tonight. 

As fellow FantasyCPR writer Brian Tulloch pointed out in his Fanduel MLB Picks and Piviots article, in 2016 Lance McCullers Jr. ($8,800) had the highest strikeout ratio of any pitcher on the schedule tonight, 30.1%.  But as we already mentioned, we don’t like the match up.  Just behind the Red Sox and before the Cubs, the Mariners had the 2nd most efficient scoring offense in baseball.  So I’m avoiding pitching against Seattle until that changes in 2017.

So if you’re going to fade Johnny, consider a cheaper Kenta Maeda ($8,600).  Maeda has the 2nd highest strikeout ratio and is facing one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, the Padres.

Next: Top Mid-Range Pitcher

Top Mid-Range Pitcher

We don’t love many of the mid-range salary options at pitcher tonight.  Shoemaker is a decent option, but I want to see how his 2017 start goes after his injury plagued 2016 season.  Iwakuma facing a very good hitting lineup in Houston.  And Wainwright is facing the World Series Champion Cubs.  

So our search at the mid-range salary section of pitcher options narrows us down to the Yankees and Rays game in Tampa.  Sabathia had some decent games last year, but struggled much of the season.  On the other hand, Jake Odorizzi ($7,700) emerged as a top three starter for any team in baseball.  In 2016, Odorizzi was 10-6 with a decent 3.79 ERA.  Jake had a quality start 17 of his 33 starts, or 51% of the time.  Odorizzi also had around eight strikeouts per nine innings in 2016.

The Yankees struggled to put up more than two runs against Archer and the Rays bullpen on Sunday.  I think they’re going to struggle again against a rising and talented Odorizzi.  I would try to pay for Cueto or Maeda before you get cheaper at pitcher, but if you can’t afford them, Jake is your next best option.

Next: Pitching Value

Pitching Value

With great risk, often comes great reward.  What many also don’t say is great risk can present great failure as well.  The top value option tonight, presents plenty of risk.  Darvish and the Rangers were absolutely shelled by the Indians yesterday.  Darvish allowed four runs in six innings, and the Rangers bullpen allowed an additional four runs, leading to a 5-8 loss to the Indians.

But the Rangers did show solid pop from their offense against a good Cleveland pitching staff. And Martin Perez ($6,400) showed signs of brilliance during the 2016 season.  I was surprised to learn Perez had 19 quality starts last year, in the top 25 among all pitchers.  He had a QS in 57% of his starts, which is 3rd best among all the starters on Tuesday.  That is surprising, considering he had an above 4 ERA, and was only 10-11 last season.

The 26-year-old Venezuelan has an opportunity to emerge as one of the surprise top pitchers in 2017.  But, that’s yet to be seen.  If it starts tonight, your gamble will pay off big.  Perez allows us to afford a lineup-full of heavy hitters for a big score, and lost of cash.

Next: Offensive Pitching Target

Offensive Pitching Target

Now that we’ve identified our top pitching options at each salary level, we’re going to focus on the worst pitching options for tonight, to understand which teams we should use to stack our hitter lineup spots.

The San Francisco Giants were 13th in 2016 in wRC+, with a 98 value.  So the Giants had a top 15 scoring offense last year.  The Giants also had a 17.7% strikeout ratio, the 2nd lowest in MLB, only behind the Angels.

Patrick Corbin ($5,100) gave up nearly four walks per nine innings last year, and has a low 64.8% LOB average, meaning he often allowed opposing hitters to knock in his walks for runs.  Corbin was 5-13 with a horrendous 5.15 ERA.  The D-Backs are hoping Corbin can straighten things out this year, as they continue to re-build.  But Corbin should have a rough time in Airzona tonight, so target the Giants for one of your offensive stacks on Tuesday.

The Dodgers hitters went crazy against the Padres on Sunday.  It’s unlikely that stops tonight. Clayton Richard ($6,600) is taking the mound for the Padres, starting for the first time.  We don’t know much of Richard as a starter, because he spent most of his time in the bullpen last season. It’s likely the Padres struggling again tonight and stacking the Dodgers with the Giants in your lineup is ideal tonight.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Always check MLB lineups throughout the day when playing MLB FanDuel.  You can typically find starting pitchers a few days, or day before, each game.  But as the season progresses, pitchers develop injuries, sometimes only hours before a game.  So always stay tuned for changes before locking in your lineup.  Follow us on twitter, @fantasycpr, for updates as we get closer to lineup lock time.  Good Luck today FanDuelers!