Nylon Calculus: Minnesota and their and-1 barrage against Golden State
By Matt Femrite
At halftime of Tuesday night’s matchup between Golden State and Minnesota, the Warriors led 68-60. Minnesota was winning the battle on the boards, but they were out-shot 8-to-1 on made 3-pointers, the turnover battle was a push, and they only made two more free throws. There was a difference in true shooting percentage of 20, so how was it only an eight-point game?
The Timberwolves’ 8-1 advantage on offensive rebounds helped, but also the fact that half of their 16 free throws did not account for scoring possessions. At halftime, Minnesota attempted two free throws from JaVale McGee’s flagrant foul and six free throws from and-1s. In the second half, they were fouled twice more on made field goals for a total of eight and-1s in the game.
That was both unusual and valuable. When looking at free throw splits, Shaquille O’Neal is a frequent name when it comes to the most and-1s in single seasons, but he never averaged even two per game. That’s because they’re difficult for most players to consistently convert. In an old post about the value of shot fouls, I found that players make about 20 percent of their fouled field goal attempts. Against Golden State, the Timberwolves shot 8-for-15 in such situations. Because they were on a collective heater in this situation, it felt like they approached or broke the record for most and-1s in a game.
Below is a look at how they fared compared to all other teams going back to 1997:
While Minnesota fell short of the most and-1s this season alone, it’s still worth noting the highest totals. At the least, we’ll have more information during the next similar performance. Houston was actually surprising to see. While they’re second in free throw rate, they’re that high because James Harden’s free throw rate is inflated. He’s made less than 10 percent of his fouled shot attempts and draws more fouls on 3-pointers than any NBA team. In the game above, Harden scored only two and-1s while Montrezl Harrell led the Rockets with four.
A less surprising sight in the table was Phoenix when they had O’Neal, who recorded four of their 10 and-1s in that 2009 game. He’s had plenty of other nights with four, and a handful with higher marks. So while we’re at it, let’s look at player totals in single games. Below is a look at the most and-1s from a player since 1997:
While Minnesota’s and-1s on Tuesday were not historic by either team or individual totals, Andrew Wiggins and Shabazz Muhammad were included because their totals as teammates were special. It was the first game this season when two teammates had three and-1s each and the 29th since 1997. Recording four each drew blanks unless we factor in opposing players and the assistance of three overtimes. Given the decline in free throw rates recently, two players scoring four and-1s should remain a tough find.
For one half, Minnesota kept the game close in one of the most unusual ways, but Golden State was the heavy favorite. Minnesota couldn’t keep their pace of and-1s, remained cold from beyond the arc, and the defense continued to leak points. In the end, Golden State’s claimed their 204th victory in three seasons, breaking the 1996 to 1998 Chicago Bulls’ record for most wins in a such a time span. That’s a bigger deal than and-1 totals. Maybe.
And-1 totals were derived from NBA.com’s play-by-play data. Stats are as of April 3.