Nylon Calculus: Overshadowed skills of the NBA’s best offensive rebounders
If the NBA playoffs have taught us anything over the years, it’s to not take the importance of rebounds lightly. Tristan Thompson practically cashed in an $82 million contract a year ago on the basis of his rebounding impact displayed in the playoffs. The Boston Celtics were at a real risk of losing the rope entirely this postseason because they had no answers for the dominant (this feels only a little weird to type) inside presence of Robin Lopez. Over the 82-game trek of the regular season, rebounding can be taken for granted. But in the seven-game series nature of the playoffs, in a make or miss league, one rebound that either ends or extends a possession can make all the difference.
However, there are a lot of elements which comprise a player’s total rebounding ability besides brawn and box-out ability. For example, let’s go to the North and turn to Jonas Valanciunas. Effective or not, Jonas loves his hook shots. Take a look:
Per Basketball-Reference, Valanciunas was 42nd in the league this season in offensive rebound percentage, checking in at 12.4, certainly nothing to write home about. However, twice in that game against the Bucks on April 18, which the Raptors won by six, Valanciunas grabbed an offensive rebound off his own miss, like in the clip above. He was actually ninth in the league this season in that regard, recovering and creating an extra possession off of 14.7 percent of his own missed field goal attempts. The top 25 and bottom 25 are tabulated below (minimum 75 missed FGs):
If we needed more evidence of Rudy Gobert’s value on offense (and what separates him from other traditionally defense-first centers), he was second in the league in tracking down his own misses. Another duo features prominently as well — JaVale McGee and Zaza Pachulia, the Warriors’ two traditional centers. Per Basketball Reference, McGee was actually ninth in the league in offensive rebound percentage (15.8 percent), but Zaza was only 36th (12.9 percent). Yet, the two of them were fourth and fifth respectively in grabbing a board off their own miss.
This is key because while teams generally are not great at producing points following an offensive rebound, Golden State has actually scored 1.01 points per play so far this season following an offensive board (including free throw attempts from fouls drawn), tops in the league. How many times have we seen a Warriors second-chance opportunity end up in a Steph Curry dagger?
McGee has played a big role this season in the Warriors’ relative success following offensive rebounds, as Golden State has scored 1.05 points per play following his offensive boards. Bebe Nogueira and LeBron James are tops in the league in this regard, their teams have scored 1.2 and 1.19 points per play following their offensive rebounds, respectively. The top 25 and bottom 25 in this category are tabulated below (minimum 75 offensive rebounds):
It’s no surprise that the top of the list is populated with big men and physical wings, as the real value on these offensive boards comes from the shooting fouls drawn subsequently. Everyone’s favorite terminator, Kawhi Leonard, is seventh so far this season, which is good because he and the Spurs didn’t give opponents enough headaches already. Montrezl Harrell at fourth is no surprise given his relentless motor and activity level, but Clint Capela also is in the top 50, registering 1.01 points per play following his offensive boards. Together, they’ve catalyzed Houston into the third-best team in the league at scoring off offensive rebounds, at just over 1.0 point per play in these situations.
Of course, no conversation that includes the Houston Rockets would be complete without discussing free throws. Coaches treat the notion of giving up an offensive rebound following a missed free throw with a special brand of disgust, and for good reason! Giving up an offensive rebound runs antithetical to everything they preach about the importance fundamentals and effort. But being able to outmaneuver the thicket of defenders to that rebound when a free throw clangs off the rim can be extremely valuable. Remember this play that happened pretty recently?
It was perhaps the most perfectly executed missed free throw which I have ever seen. It couldn’t have produced a better result, except for perhaps a four-point play but let’s not get too greedy. Well, as it turns out, Steven Adams is in fact very skilled at grabbing offensive rebounds from missed free throws, and not just his own. He was the best in the league this season, collecting 13.2 percent of the offensive rebound opportunities following a missed free throw. But Oklahoma City’s offensive rebounding prowess off missed free throws wasn’t limited to Adams. Jerami Grant, Andre Roberson, and Enes Kanter were all top 25 in this category, with Taj Gibson just outside at 28th, registering 4.8 percent offensive rebounding off missed free throws (minimum 75 opportunities).
Perhaps it’s no surprise then that a whopping 34.6 percent of Russell Westbrook’s end-of-sequence free throw misses were offensive rebounded. It may be scant consolation for a Thunder team whose season is over, but their collective rebounding skill truly does provide a foundational strength moving forward. And as for their former brethren Kevin Durant’s team over in the bay area? Well, Zaza Pachulia didn’t quite pass the minimum opportunities filter, but he’s chilling at a cool 13.6 percent offensive rebound percentage off missed free throws, an even better mark than Steven Adams. After all, as with anything Zaza, nothing easy baby. Nothing easy.
Next: Nylon Calculus -- J.J. Redick and the stifling Jazz defense
*All statistics, unless otherwise stated, are calculated using NBA Stats play-by-play data and are current up to April 22
*Video courtesy of 3ball.io and Youtube