Tottenham, and the title race that wasn’t

Can a team bottle a title race that never existed in the first place? That’s the question Tottenham’s loss against West Ham last Friday forced us to confront. Chelsea, who can clinch the league with a win against West Brom later this week, are now in total control, but given they were also in total control before Spurs’ loss, have we really learned anything new about Mauricio Pochettino’s side?

Much has been made recently of the fact Spurs have collected more points over the past two seasons than any other Premier League club — which is a close second to Most Points in a Calendar Year in the Pointless Collections of Points Rankings — but in both seasons their title challenge has consisted of coming into the final stretch needing to win all their matches, and hoping the team above them collapses. That’s not a recipe for success, as evidenced by the fact their two “title races” have yielded zero titles.

So no, Spurs didn’t drop out of the title race last Friday. They dropped out at the same time as everyone else, from the beginning of October to mid-January, when they picked up 25 of 39 points while Chelsea picked up 39. Harry Kane was injured for the first month of that run, during which time Tottenham drew three matches and scored only two goals (they drew their fourth match in a row on Kane’s return, the north London derby).

Which fact might be Tottenham’s biggest cause for optimism. When Kane missed another month in March and April, Tottenham won every match they played with Heung-min Son leading the line (and Vincent Janssen mostly on the bench). That’s real, tangible improvement. Not only has this been their best ever Premier League season in terms of points, they’ve gotten better as the campaign has progressed.

The squad and manager are still very young, and all the key players are under contract for the next several seasons at least. They may have failed to mount a serious title challenge this year, but they’re on course for one of the highest point totals ever for a second-place team. They’re really, really close.

Why can’t they mount a real, or winning, title challenge in the near future?

For one thing, history tells us overperformance, and there’s no other word for what Tottenham have achieved (which, technically, is nothing) the past two seasons, is short-term. It may already have run its course at White Hart Lane, and not only because the team will play at Wembley next season.

Indeed, there was something particularly apt about the fact Tottenham’s so-called title race came to an end at the London Stadium, another (too) big, atmosphere-less bowl of public investment. Spurs will figure out how to play at Wembley, where they’ve lost three of five games this season (and drawn one that saw them dumped out of the Europa League on away goals), but in leaving White Hart Lane, there’s no question they’ve lost an advantage.

The point of this is not to criticize Tottenham, who have outperformed four significantly wealthier teams in Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United and Manchester City, and Pochettino deserves immense credit for the job he’s done. But the job is only about to get harder, and points totals over arbitrary time frames more meaningless.

Pochettino’s currently in his third full season at White Hart Lane. Pep Guardiola, Jose Mourinho, Antonio Conte and Jurgen Klopp are all in their first. As Pochettino surely knows, the longer those managers get, the better their sides will be. There’s also a good chance they’ll all have Champions League soccer to offer prospective transfer targets this summer, which will only compound the financial divide.

(This might be too simple, but the difference between second and first for Spurs right now feels an awful lot like it plays for Real Madrid. If Pochettino had Gareth Bale instead of the [very good, but not elite] Son, it’s hard to imagine they’d be this far off Chelsea’s pace. If they had Luka Modric, who is even better than Bale, and Bale?)

There’s a good argument to be made Pochettino’s the best manager of the lot. There’s also a good argument to be made he’s missed his window. The past two seasons have been, above all else, transitional. Even at the Emirates, where Arsene Wenger’s departure finally seems like a matter of when and not if, there is a feeling of shift. But the transition phase is ending.

Last season, Leicester won the league with one of the lowest points totals ever. This season Chelsea are on course to win with one of the highest. And perhaps the scariest thing about this Blues side is how improvable they are — with the exceptions of Eden Hazard, N’Golo Kante, Thibaut Courtois, Cesar Azpilicueta and, depending on how distracted he is by the Chinese Super League, Diego Costa, they could conceivably upgrade in every position. They won’t, but they’ll upgrade in some, and Conte has proven his ability to sustain a title-winning intensity over several seasons.

The Manchester clubs will spend until they get to where they think they belong, and for as much criticism as they’ve received this year, both have improved over the course of the season. Liverpool, who are the most similar to Tottenham of all these clubs, already have the same number of points Tottenham managed all last season, and despite their excruciatingly inconsistent 2017 have made obvious improvement under Klopp. They have more money and despite their best efforts it looks like they’ll be able to dangle the carrot of the Champions League in front of transfer targets this summer.

Moreover, Tottenham’s natives are getting restless. The core of the squad is all tied down for the near future, but there are signs of, if not discontent, certainly wanderlust, or greedy bastard-ness anyway. Kyle Walker has been heavily linked to a move away from White Hart Lane, Toby Alderweireld may or may not extend his contract and the usual, mega-rich vultures are circling Dele Alli, who, unlike Kane, has no boyhood connection to the club.

This is a deliberately pessimistic reading of the situation, but it feels worthwhile given the near-universal positivity around the club. As good a job as Pochettino has done, as impressive as Tottenham’s young squad have been, they are the only member of the top five about which it feels reasonable to ask, at this point, whether they’ve reached their ceiling.

The Sir Alex Ferguson Award for Mind Games: Fraser Forster

Liverpool spent most of their match against Southampton on Sunday failing very emphatically to create any chances. The referee seemed to have put an end to their misery in the 66th minute, when he awarded the Reds a penalty for a Jack Stephens’ handball. Fraser Forster had other ideas, however, whispering sweet nothings into James Milner’s ear for several minutes before saving the Liverpool captain’s spot kick low to his right. It was Milner’s first penalty miss in the league since November 2009.

The New Wembley Award for Overdue Stadium Christenings: West Ham

West Ham have had an eventful season for a side that’s going to finish comfortably mid-table, moving in and out of the relegation scrap on what’s felt like a monthly basis. The most consistent talking point has been their new stadium, which has failed almost completely (and very predictably) to live up to the legacy of Upton Park, where the Hammers had made a habit of stirring wins against the league’s elite. Among the (many) other problems with the London Stadium was the fact West Ham couldn’t seem to win there, at least not well, and certainly not against any half decent opposition. That was until they beat Tottenham, they of the non-title race title race, under the lights last Friday. Upton Park it was not, but it was the first time all season the stadium seemed like it belonged to the home side.

The Claudio Ranieri Award for Sports Psychology: Sunderland

Sunderland have been awful all year, and were rewarded for their awfulness by getting relegated last weekend. So of course they won their next match, 1-0 away to Hull, who have made (and are still making) an actual, noticeable effort not to get relegated, and are therefore presumably furious the Black Cats decided on Saturday at the KCOM, of all days at all stadiums, to put in a good performance. David Moyes’ side have taken six of their 24 points off the Tigers and face Swansea, Hull’s main rivals for the drop, on Saturday. The least they could do is win.

The Yaya Toure Award for Comebacks: David Silva

Like everyone else from third to sixth place, Manchester City have spent the past several months trying to screw up their own chances of qualifying for the Champions League, most recently drawing to Manchester United and, more troubling, Middlesbrough in back-to-back games. Pep Guardiola’s side took a big step toward a top-four finish with an emphatic win against Crystal Palace on Saturday, a victory that, among other things, served as a reminder of the continued importance of David Silva to this team. Silva, who missed the draws against United and Boro with injury, was exquisite, scoring City’s opener in the second minute and controlling the play throughout. For all the exciting young talent brought to the club the past few seasons, Guardiola should perhaps be concerned how reliant this side remains, five years after their first league title, on the old spine of Vincent Kompany, Yaya Toure, Sergio Aguero and, above all, Silva.

The Roberto Martinez Award for Silver Linings: Jose Mourinho

Jose Mourinho is a simple man, really, when you accept that all he really cares about is annoying Arsene Wenger, even in defeat. Mourinho lost to the Arsenal manager on Sunday for the first time, when a weakened and unambitious United side fell 2-0 after conceding an extremely lucky (or unlucky) opener and then mostly losing interest in what was, if there manager is to be believed, a meaningless game. Mourinho used the opportunity to express how happy he was for Arsenal fans, who got to leave a match against the Special One in a good mood for the first time. What a gentleman.