MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Tired bats, surging vets could deliver an under Sunday in St. Louis

After last night’s 13-inning marathon, that also involved nearly an hour-long rain delay, the lineups might not have enough to compete consistently. Exhaustion will be complicated by today’s veteran starters, who have been trending up as of late, Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright.

Despite being nicely on pace for most of the day, yesterday’s Phillies-Pirates Under 8.5 bet does not get us the win, losing by the narrowest of margins — a half-run. Luckily, I have what I feel is a strong bet from the Sunday slate to get it back.

 

Zylbert’s 2017 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 29-22-4 (56.9%), +475

Yesterday’s Result: Velasquez vs Nova Under 8.5 (Loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 100 dollars/units

 

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Cain vs. Adam Wainwright

UNDER 9 (-115) (via OddsShark)

For those who were still tracking the MLB action into late Saturday night, you probably noticed the Giants-Cardinals extra-innings affair was still going on following a rain delay. Ultimately, San Francisco would go on to prevail 3-1 in 13 frames, and that’s a crucial element that can help register an under in today’s series finale.

Typically on weekends, when there is a daytime game following a nighttime one, you’re going to get some regulars sitting, and that should especially be the case this afternoon after last night’s marathon encounter. That can only bode well for this under bet if sluggers like Buster Posey and Yadier Molina, among others, are not featured in the batting order.

The starting pitching matchup won’t make it any easier for both offenses, as each hurler should have bettors thinking ‘under’, considering their recent work.

Veteran Matt Cain will take the ball for the visitors, and while it’s been a long beginning for Giants fans overall, one of the bright spots has been the 32-year-old’s work thus far. Cain is a respectable 3-1 with a 4.04 ERA, and it looks like he’s continuing to head in the right direction after holding the arch-nemesis Dodgers to just one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings his last time out.

Then there’s Adam Wainwright, who — like his counterpart in this assignment — has also been in the process of crafting a return to relevance in 2017. The 12-year veteran’s numbers on the year might not look pretty overall, being 3-3 in eight starts with a 5.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, but the former perennial NL Cy Young contender has actually performed at least a little better than that. He’s recorded a 7.65 K/9 rate, which is his best since 2013, and his highly unlucky .390 batting average on balls put in play figures to only start regressing towards the norm soon.

Most importantly, when it comes to handicapping a Wainwright start, is the fact he’ll be working from home in this one. After all, Waino has been significantly better on the mound in St. Louis compared to on the road, which was even notably true a season ago during the most disastrous campaign of his career.

Wainwright owned a career-worst 4.62 ERA and 1.40 WHIP last year, but at home, the 35-year-old was still solid, being 7-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 16 starts at Busch. That trend has continued into this season, in which Wainwright is 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA in front of the hometown fans. He’ll also be entering this assignment with confidence after blanking the Cubs over seven impressive scoreless innings in his last outing.

So, while it may not be the most illuminating of pitching matchups at first glance, today’s showdown between Cain and Wainwright will have the potential to surprise a lot of people. And with the line being as high as 9, under backers could still get by even if just one of the starters churns out a quality start, making this a nice under bet in this MLB Network Sunday afternoon St. Louis setting.