History says the 2017 NBA Finals could be another classic, or a disaster

All year, we’ve been waiting for the Warriors and Cavaliers to meet in the NBA Finals. It was a widely-held belief as far back as last July that these teams were the only two that could really push the other in a series and, if nothing else, the 2017 playoffs have proven that belief correct.

The Warriors swept their way through the Western Conference completely unchallenged. They went 12-0 against the Trail Blazers, Jazz and Spurs, becoming the first team in NBA history to open the playoffs by winning 12 straight games. They hung 114.6 points per 100 possessions on Portland’s No. 21 defense, then followed it up by tearing through the Jazz’s No. 3 defense (albeit without George Hill for the most part) with 114.1 points per 100 and the Spurs’ No. 1 defense (without Kawhi Leonard for three-plus games) with a magma-like 118.7 points per 100 possessions. They did all that while also being the only team in the playoffs to allow its opponents to score less than 100 points per 100 possessions.

Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant couldn’t possibly be playing any better, and Draymond Green has nearly matched their level. Curry is slapping up 28.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.9 steals a night while maintaining a 50-40-90 shooting line. KD is dropping 25 a game while shooting 55 percent from the field, 42 percent from the perimeter and 88 percent from the line. He’s also chipping in eight boards and four assists a game. Green is on his way to being the first player in NBA history to average at least 13 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 blocks and 1.5 steals per game during a single playoff run.

They’re all making everything look very, very easy, even with Klay Thompson barely scratching the surface of what we know he can do. (His best series probably came at the expense of the Jazz, against whom he shot 43 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3-point range.)

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As impressive as Golden State’s pre-Finals performance was, the Cavaliers just about matched it. Cleveland lost only one game on its way through the Eastern Conference bracket, going 12-1 against the Pacers, Raptors and Celtics. Sure, they only scored 16 more points than the Pacers across their four-game sweep, but they blew the doors off the Raptors once again and made quick work of the Celtics for the most part as well. The Cavaliers also scored at an even greater clip than the Warriors — Golden State totaled 115.8 points per 100 possessions on its way to the Finals, while Cleveland checked in with an utterly preposterous 120.7 mark.

LeBron is simply cruising along with GOAT-level production, matching Green in boards and assists while shooting 56.6 percent from the field and a career playoff-best 41.2 percent from beyond the arc in averaging 32.5 points per game. Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson couldn’t really be playing any better. Love’s working on his best playoff run as a Cav, throwing up 17 and 10 while shooting 46 percent from the field and 48 percent from the perimeter. He’s had a couple poor shooting games but he’s been consistent on the boards and no more space-y defensively than any other member of the team. Thompson is once again destroying teams on the offensive glass (his 55 offensive rebounds have him in the NBA playoff lead for the third straight season) and he’s even had a couple blow-up scoring games as well.

They’re all making everything look very, very easy, even with Kyrie Irving struggling (for him) with his outside shot. Irving had several signature showings during Cleveland’s run to the Finals but he also shot south of 42 percent from the field in more than half their games.

Even while not operating at peak efficiency, the Warriors managed to outscore their opponents by an average of 16.3 points per game. Only two of their 12 games were decided by single-digit margins and they won five games by 20 or more. Even while still largely struggling defensively, the Cavaliers managed to outscore their opponents by 13.6 points per game. Only five of their games were decided by single-digit margins and they won five games by 20 or more. In short, neither team has been even vaguely challenged, and neither team has brought out the best in any of its opponents thus far.

These two teams do bring out the best in each other fairly often, though. That best just has not typically appeared simultaneously — at least not since the first three games of the 2015 Finals. Consider what’s happened since:

• The Warriors blew the Cavaliers off the floor in Games 4 through 6, with Nick U’Ren’s suggestion to switch to the Death Lineup on a near full-time basis pushing Golden State to reach heights greater than they’d ever reached to that point. They won those three contests by a combined 41 points.
• The teams squared off two regular season matchups during the 2015-16 season, with the Warriors winning a lethargic Christmas Day game during which neither team played well, and then smoking the Cavaliers by 34 points at The Q a few weeks later.
• The Finals rematch also rarely saw both teams play well on the same night. Games 1 through 6 were decided by 15, 33, 30, 11, 15 and 14 points. On one night or another, the Warriors were at their very best, or else the Cavs were. Only Game 7 was close, and in that game only Green, LeBron and Irving played at anything resembling their peak.
• The two games during this regular season also took place on Christmas and in mid-January. This time the game in Cleveland was close, with both teams actually playing well at the same time and most of the principals involved looking like themselves. Curry and Love struggled from the field but everyone else put in a good showing. The game ended in much the same way Game 7 had a few months earlier, with Irving nailing a spectacular game-winning jumper over the outstretched arms of a Splash Brother. A few weeks later, the Warriors re-established dominance with a signature 25-point win.

That’s 14 games over the course of two years, only three of which were decided by single-digits. The Warriors outclassed the Cavaliers by an average of 18.3 points in their nine wins, while the Cavaliers won by 12.8 per game in their five victories. The only thing that’s been even remotely consistent across all 14 contests is LeBron controlling every inch of the floor and being heavily involved in every single action on both ends, as Golden State’s stars and Cleveland’s remaining Big Three members have been alternately injured and/or ineffective in several contests.

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Given the track record, we seem likely to continue getting similarly lopsided contests, with one side or the other showing the opponent up on any given night. If those show-ups go back and forth and thus result in a long series, the wait for this series will likely have been well worth it, just as it was last season. If the result in a quick and easy series victory with a bunch of blowouts along the way, though, all the build-up will have been for nought.