Welcome to the Friday, July 7th edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column.  Once again, we’re focused on the Main FanDuel slate, only.
With two games starting before the 7pm EDT prime-time slot, we have 13 games and 26 pitchers to choose from for tonight’s Main slate.  We’re going to narrow our search down to eight games, identifying our top play of the day, really a must-start, two ‘Max Fade,’ options, a value pick, and four pitchers to target for your hitting side of the lineup.
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First, before we go further a quick Daily Fantasy Sports MLB FanDuel public service announcement. If you’re looking for Marcus Semien to put into your lineup, you can stop.  He was incorrectly identifies as a pitcher, and is unavailable for hitting tonight.
There is a very robust list of great pitching match ups tonight.  Here’s the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:
ATL R.A. Dickey at WSH Max Scherzer (7:05pm EDT)
MIL Junior Guerra at NYY Jordan Montgomery (7:05pm EDT)
HOU Charlie Morton at TOR Aaron Sanchez (7:07pm EDT)
DET Jordan Zimmermann at CLE Carlos Carrasco (7:10pm EDT)
BOS Drew Pomeranz at TB Jake Odorizzi (7:10pm EDT)
NYM Jacob deGrom at STL Carlos MartÃnez (8:15pm EDT)
CIN Tim Adleman at ARZ Zack Greinke (9:40pm EDT)
OAK Sean Manaea at SEA James Paxton (10:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Not only is Max Scherzer ($12,400) my top pitching pick of the night, I believe he’s a must play.  In Scherzer’s last eight games, he’s had 60+ MLB FanDuel points in six of those games.  In two of those games, he had 13 and 14 strikeouts, along with a win and quality start for 70+ points.
Among all the starting pitchers tonight, Max is giving you a 20%+ MLB FanDuel point average benefit, just by paying up for him in your lineup.  So while there’s a lot of talk about how many great pitching options there is tonight, it seems silly to somehow equate the other starters with Scherzer.  Max is a must-start in cash games, and you can still build a successful offensive lineup for GPP.
Max has a 2.70 SIERA, the only pitcher on the mound tonight below 3.00. Â Scherzer has a silly 35.6% strikeout rate, along with a low 5.7% walk rate. Â Max is only giving up 0.90 home runs per nine innings, and has a historic 0.77 WHIP at the turn of the season.
Against such dominate pitching, it’s almost irrelevant how the lineup compares to Max, but the Braves offer a favorable match up.  Atlanta has a 90 wRC+ against RHP’s away from home, 18th in baseball.  The Braves are striking out around 20% of the time in this scenario, with a 7.3% walk rate, .259 batting average, and .325 OBP.  There’s always risk with every play, but picking Max each time he’s on the mound is as sure a bet as you’re going to get out of pitching this season.
If you’re somehow not convinced Scherzer will meet his consistent dominance tonight, or you’re looking for a contrarian play, but careful.  Many players are likely looking for the same thing.  But there are some solid options.
MLB FanDuel Max Fade – deGrom
Thanks to yet another rain delay, and then postponement, in Washington D,C. on Wednesday night, Jacob deGrom ($11,000) was unable to pitch his regularly scheduled outing, and is now ready to go in St. Louis Friday night.  The two-day delay could hurt deGrom, but he’s been on fire lately.
In June, deGrom followed three straight 52 MLB FanDuel point games with a 12 strikeout beating of the Phillies and 64 points on June 30th. Â Jake is fanning batters at a 29% rate, second only to Scherzer. Â deGrom is giving up 1.23 home runs per nine innings, but has a low 1.02 WHIP and solid 3.21 SIERA. Â The Cardinals are a mediocre lineup in this scenario, provide another solid 50+ point opportunity from Jake tonight.
MLB FanDuel Max Fade – Paxton
Since coming from the disabled list, James Paxton ($9,200) has struggled to regain his early season dominance, but he’s starting to show signs of improving.  James is averaging around seven strikeouts per game, over the last three games, and has two straight quality starts as well as a wing in Los Angeles, against the Angels, last outing.
For whatever reason, the Oakland A’s have really struggled against LHP’s on the road.  The A’s have a horrendous 47 wRC+ (100 is average) in this scenario, a high 26.8% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate, terrible .190 batting average, and low .306 slugging percentage.  The match up will draw a lot of ownership toward Paxton, but he’s set up for a big 50+ point night, for the first time in a while, on a more reasonable $9.2K salary.
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day
One of my favorite early season value picks at pitcher is finally off the disabled list, just before the All-Star Break.  Charlie Morton ($7,600).  After a ho-hum sort of April, Morton really revved up his DFS game by dropping 35+ MLB FanDuel point games in five of six game until his injury in late may.
Morton has a very good 25.8% strikeout rate, along with a solid 3.82 SIERA and low 1.09 home runs per nine innings.  Charlie’s biggest problem has been walks, currently with a 9.1% rate.  But in a slate like tonight’s, especially with Scherzer on the mound, if you’re fading Max for value you’ll want to find someone with high strikeout upside.
The match up is a good one for Morton tonight, pitching right-handed against the Blue Jays in Toronto.  In this scenario, the Blue Jays have a 91 wRC+, 24th in baseball.  They have a .317 OBP and mediocre .419 slugging percentage against RHP’s at home as well.  Also, while Morton is coming off the DL, he is reportedly supposed to pitch at least 100 innings, allowing for a quality start and win, on top of his high-K rate.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
New York Yankees vs. Junior Guerra
Against one of the best lineups in baseball, and Judge, in their own park, Guerra has a terrible match up tonight. Â Junior has a low 17.3% strikeout rate, and the highest walk rate on the mound tonight, 13.5%.
Guerra is giving up 2.36 home runs per nine innings, a perfect situation for Judge and gang to continue their smashing tear.  They’ll be expensive, but if you can afford any, try to get some Yankees in your lineups tonight.
Cleveland Indians vs. Jordan ZimmermannÂ
The Indians bats have been hot, and Zimmermann is having a rough season. Â This is a good situation to stack Cleveland bats. Â Jordan has a 5.09 SIERA, 5th worst on the mound tonight, and is also giving up over 2 home runs per nine innings. Â The BABIP against Zimmermann is a high .304, and Jordan is struggling to fan batters, at a low 16.3% rate. Â The Indians are also more affordable than the Yankees.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tim Adleman
Even with Max in your lineup, you can afford Diamondbacks against Adleman.  That’s a juicy opportunity.  Tim has a decent 4.58 SIERA, but not ideal.  While Adleman is striking batters out at a 21.9% rate, he’s also walking hitters at a 9.6% rate.  And against heavy hitters like the D-Backs, Adelman’s 2 home runs per nine innings is a great opportunity for offensive points with this reasonably priced stack.
Boston Red Sox vs. Jake OdorizziÂ
Another lineup that’s been hot lately, the Red Sox are facing a solid pitcher on the mound in Tampa Bay, Florida tonight.  But Odorizzi has struggled this season, especially with the long-ball.  Jake is also giving up over 2 home runs per nine innings, and has an uncomfortable 8.1% walk rate.  Also, given Odorizzi’s career numbers, the salaries for Red Sox seem to be deflated for tonight’s match up, making them affordable to stack with a top pitcher.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
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