USA vs. Martinique: Predicting USMNT lineup

The United States face Martinique in their second Gold Cup game. Here is the lineup we predict Bruce Arena will use.

The United States had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Panama in their opening game of the Gold Cup. Martinique opened their tournament with a 2-0 win against Nicaragua to sit atop Group B.

Bruce Arena is likely to rotate his squad at some point during the group stage — the U.S. will play three matches in eight days — but his team-selection would have been a lot easier had his side performed a little better in their tournament opener.

Will Arena want to give an immediate opportunity to the likes of Dax McCarty and Joe Corona to atone for poor performances against Panama, or will he give other members of the squad a chance to prove themselves? This is how we expect the lineup to look.

Forwards

Dom Dwyer started the opener, and was one of the few players to impress, scoring the only goal and looking pretty dangerous given his overall lack of service. If anyone’s earned their spot in Arena’s first XI for this tournament, it’s Dwyer, which means he may well have earned a rest with an eye to the knockout rounds.

The other three options up front for Arena are Jordan Morris, Juan Agudelo and Gyasi Zardes. All three were used as second-half substitutes against Panama. Agudelo looked the best when he came on, but he replaced Joe Corona in attacking midfield, not Dwyer, so we may see Agudelo and either Agudelo or Zardes on Wednesday.

Midfielders

Against Panama, Arena started Kellyn Acosta and McCarty as holding midfielders, sitting in front of the back four. Joe Corona started as an attacking midfielder, with Alejandro Bedoya and Kelyn Rowe on the wings. The attacking trio of Corona, Bedoya and Rowe were all subbed off after the 61st minute as Arena looked for a winning goal.

Acosta and McCarty both played the entire game and neither was particularly good. However, given they started the pre-tournament friendly against Ghana and the tournament opener against Panama, it seems the were Arena’s first-choice pairing heading into the tournament. That shouldn’t immediately change because of one sub-par performance.

However, Arena could opt to start one of the two against Martinique and then start the other against Nicaragua. That would give them both a chance to rest and Arena a chance to look at another player in the position. Cristian Roldan should start if Arena elects to rest Acosta or McCarty.

As for attacking midfield, Paul Arriola will likely start in the second game on the wing. Zardes was subbed in for Rowe in the opener and the two could switch roles in the second game. Rowe was one of the few good performers against Panama, though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if Arena wants to give him another chance immediately. Corona, in contrast, was one of the worst performers in the first game. He’s likely to be replaced, probably by either Clint Pontius or Agudelo.

Defenders

Omar Gonzalez and Matt Besler started at center-back against Panama, while Graham Zusi and Jorge Villafana started at full-back. It didn’t work well. The most obvious change would be to have Matt Hedges move into the starting lineup for Gonzalez or Besler. Hedges started against Ghana and would allow Arena to rest one of his two starting center-backs.

If Arena opts for a complete change in the middle of his defense, he could bring Matt Miazga into the lineup. Miazga has shown potential but has only played in two international games. Then again, there’s probably no better time to give him more experience than against a weaker side like Martinique. If Arena wanted to, he could completely switch out his back four and start Justin Morrow at left-back and Eric Lichaj at right-back.

However, it’s unlikely that Arena will want to start a back four with fewer than 20 combined caps. Instead, Arena will likely start Hedges alongside Besler and Villafana and Lichaj at full-back. This back four allows Arena to start a mix of experienced players and younger players to help them gain experience. It also allows Arena to flip the combination in the back four to get everyone experience and rest for the knockout stage.

Brad Guzan started in goal against Panama and will certainly be Arena’s first choice in the knockout stage. Guzan’s experience will certainly help organize a back four that could feature a couple of inexperienced players. Given Guzan’s position isn’t really in doubt, however, the final two group games could be a good time to take a look at Bill Hamid and Sean Johnson. Don’t be surprised if one of them starts, or if things go really well, comes on as a sub.

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Starting XI

The USMNT are big favorites against Martinique, and this game is a perfect opportunity for Arena to make changes to his lineup to give younger players more experience. With the game at night in Tampa Bay, heat should be less of an issue than it was in Nashville in the opener. Expect Arena to allow the back four to play all 90 minutes and use all three of his subs to make changes in the midfield. Agudelo and Corona are both options to come on as subs in the second game.

A win over Martinique would give the USMNT four points, which would almost certainly be enough for them to advance to the knockout stage. With only three days off between the United States’ games against Martinique and Nicaragua, Arena will probably make more changes in the final group stage game.